The aim of this article is to analyze the impact of commercial banks` policy on the financial mar- kets stability in Poland. This analysis leads to the conclusion that, despite the well-being of the Polish banking sector, lending and deposit banks policy should be conducted with caution. This is mainly due to the economic downturn and the ensuing increase in non-performing loans in bank portfolios. Moreover, the high share of foreign currency loans significantly reduces the impact of monetary policy instruments NBP on price of money in the economy, which is also worrying in the context of financial stability. The deterioration of the economic outlook and the continuing debt crisis in several European countries, poses a threat to the stability of the financial system in Poland.
Z jednej strony odmienne cele stojące przed bankiem centralnym i rządem nie ułatwiają prowadzenia optymalnej polityki pieniężnej i fiskalnej, z drugiej zaś decyzje podejmowane w grze monetarno‑fiskalnej władz gospodarczych w sposób istotny oddziałują na zmienne ekonomiczne w gospodarce. Stąd w zależności od przyjętych strategii banku centralnego i rządu kształtują się zmienne ekonomiczne w danej gospodarce. W niniejszym artykule szczególną uwagę zwrócono na poziom dochodów i wydatków sektora finansów publicznych, wzrost gospodarczy i stopę bezrobocia w Polsce w latach 2000–2016. Celem artykułu jest próba przedstawienia poziomu fiskalizmu w polskiej gospodarce oraz stopy wzrostu gospodarczego i bezrobocia w kontekście monetarno‑fiskalnych decyzji władz gospodarczych. Do osiągnięcia postawionego celu wykorzystano statystyczne metody badawcze oraz metody graficznej prezentacji zjawisk gospodarczych. W rezultacie zauważono, że na stopę bezrobocia oddziałuje deficyt instytucji rządowych i samorządowych oraz dynamika PKB. Poza tym dostrzeżono, że stopa bezrobocia wpływa na wydatki sektora finansów publicznych. Oryginalność badania przeprowadzonego w niniejszym artykule polega na analizie zmian poziomu fiskalizmu, stopy bezrobocia i dynamiki PKB w polskiej gospodarce w latach 2000–2016, zachodzących w wyniku interakcji monetarno‑fiskalnych oraz czynników wpływających na decyzje władz gospodarczych, w szczególności związanych z kryzysem finansowym.
EN
The central bank and the government are pursuing different goals so finding the best mix of monetary and fiscal policies is not easy. At the same time, the decisions the two authorities make during the fiscal‑monetary game exert a strong influence on economic variables. This article focuses on the level of revenues and expenditures of the public finance sector, economic growth and the unemployment rate in Poland in the years 2000–2016. Its aim is to present the level of fiscality and the rates of economic growth and unemployment in the context of monetary and fiscal decisions made by the economic authorities. To this end, the following research methods are employed: statistical analysis methods and graphical presentations of economic developments. As found, in the years 2000–2016 in Poland the general government deficit and the rate of GDP growth influenced the unemployment rate that in turn determined the expenditures of the public finance sector. This research is original in that the changes in fiscality, the rate of unemployment and the dynamics of GDP are studied with respect to interactions between the monetary and fiscal authorities, including factors influencing their decisions, particularly those arising from the last financial crisis.
Istota koordynacji polityki pieniężnej oraz fiskalnej (policy mix) opiera się na takiej kombinacji tych dwóch polityk gospodarczych, aby możliwe było osiągnięcie celów dotyczących zarówno stabilności cen, jak i wzrostu gospodarczego oraz zatrudnienia. Z kolei decyzje podejmowane w grze monetarno – fiskalnej władz gospodarczych w sposób istotny oddziałują na zmienne ekonomiczne w gospodarce. W literaturze ekonomii podkreśla się istotność koordynacji polityki monetarnej i fiskalnej co pozytywnie oddziałuje na stabilność gospodarki. Celem artykułu jest identyfikacja zależności pomiędzy zmiennymi z zakresu polityki fiskalnej i polityki monetarnej w istniejących warunkach ekonomicznych a następnie ich wpływ na gospodarkę w krajach UE. Do osiągnięcia postawionego celu wykorzystano następujące metody badawcze: przegląd literatury naukowej, prezentację danych statystycznych oraz statystyczne metody badawcze. Uzasadnieniem podjęcia danej tematyki jest zbadanie wpływu ostatniego kryzysu finansowo-gospodarczego na decyzje banków centralnych i rządów w krajach UE. Kryzys finansowy wpłynął na zmianę podejścia do prowadzenia polityki pieniężnej i fiskalnej. Zmieniające się warunki gospodarcze wymusiły podejmowanie wielu decyzji przez władze gospodarcze, które wpłynęły na interakcje pomiędzy bankiem centralnym a rządem w krajach UE. W wielu krajach UE w omawianym okresie zanotowano istotne współzależności pomiędzy zmiennymi z zakresu polityki pieniężnej i fiskalnej.
EN
Research background: The core of coordinating a monetary and fiscal policy (policy mix) is based on combining both policies to achieve goals related to price stability, as well as economic growth and employment. In turn, the decisions of economic authorities in the monetary-fiscal game have a significant impact on economic variables in the economy. In the economic literature, the importance of monetary and fiscal policy coordination is emphasized as it has a positive effect on the stability of the economy. Purpose of the article: The aim of the article is to identify the dependencies between variables in the scope of fiscal policy and monetary policy under existing economic conditions and then assess their impact on the economy in the EU countries. Methods: To achieve this objective, the following research methods were used: a review of the scientific literature, a presentation of statistical data, and statistical research methods. Findings & Value added: The rationale for adopting such issues is to examine the impact of the financial crisis on the decisions of central banks and governments in the EU. The financial crisis has affected a change in the approach to conducting monetary and fiscal policy. The changing economic conditions forced economic authorities to take many decisions that affected the interaction between the central bank and the governments in the EU Member States. In many EU countries in the discussed period, there were significant interdependencies between variables in both monetary and fiscal policy.
The conditions of the financial crisis contributed to the development of new or modification of existing financial products. In the period of financial instability, for the financial market participants were more important to invest in safe products, characterized by a limited risk of loss. The purpose of this article is to analyze the modification and development of selected financial products during the financial crisis, with particular emphasis on the impact of the crisis on innovative bank products. Structured products as financial innovation have evolved to adapt to market needs, under the influence of various factors related to the financial crisis. Thanks to the flexibility of structured products it was possible to use primarily instruments guaranteeing the return on invested capital and earning instruments on dips. Observing the market for these products in Poland, is a noticeable upward trend in the number and value of offered structured products, which intensified especially during the crisis in global financial markets.
The lack of financial stability is a factor that favors the financial crises understood as a disturbance in the functioning of financial markets. In addition, the financial crisis may lead to financial instability. Financial crises highlight the importance of financial stability in the economy. In this context, coordination of monetary and fiscal policy becomes important in periods of stability in the financial markets, however, in exceptional circumstances, e.g. crisis, takes on special significance. This article aims to analyze the decisions made by economic authorities in Poland and their consequences for the stability of the financial system, especially in the exceptional circumstances of the financial crisis. To achieve this objective, the following methods were used: a literature review, statistical research methods and graphical presentation of phenomena. Certainly, monetary and fiscal policies together influence the shaping of balance in the economy of the country concerned. Hence, this topic is important at least because of fact that the choice of the optimal combination of monetary and fiscal policy is difficult because of the diversity of the objectives and preferences of economic authorities. It seems that the financial crisis and its aftermath may have contributed to the cooperation of the central bank and the government, which in turn could have a positive impact on the level of financial stability in Poland.
PL
Brak stabilności finansowej to czynnik sprzyjający kryzysom finansowym rozumianym jako zaburzenia w funkcjonowaniu rynków finansowych. Ponadto sam kryzys finansowy może również przyczynić się do niestabilności finansowej. Kryzysy finansowe uwidaczniają istotność stabilności finansowej w gospodarce. W tym kontekście koordynacja polityki pieniężnej i fiskalnej staje się niezwykle ważna w okresach stabilności na rynkach finansowych, jednak w warunkach nadzwyczajnych, np. kryzysowych nabiera szczególnego znaczenia. Celem artykułu jest analiza decyzji podejmowanych przez władze gospodarcze w Polsce i ich konsekwencji dla stabilności systemu finansowego, szczególnie w wyjątkowych warunkach kryzysu finansowego. W opracowaniu wykorzystano następujące metody badawcze: przegląd literatury, statystyczne metody badawcze oraz metody graficznej prezentacji zjawisk. Z pewnością polityka pieniężna i fiskalna wspólnie oddziałują na kształtowanie się równowagi w gospodarce danego państwa. Stąd temat ten jest istotny chociażby ze względu na to, że wybór optymalnej kombinacji polityki pieniężnej i fiskalnej jest utrudniony z uwagi na odmienność celów i preferencji władz gospodarczych. Wydaje się, że kryzys finansowy i jego następstwa mogły przyczynić się do współpracy banku centralnego i rządu, co w rezultacie mogło korzystnie wpłynąć na poziom stabilności finansowej w Polsce.
The purpose of the article/hypothesis: The aim of this article is to examine the effectiveness of trading systems built on the basis of technical analysis tools in 2015–2020 on the DAX stock exchange index. Efficiency is understood as generating positive rates of return, taking into account the risk incurred by the investor, as well as achieving better results than passive strategies. Presenting empirical evidence implying the value of technical analysis is a difficult task not only because of a huge number of instruments used on a daily basis, but also due to their almost unlimited possibility to modify parameters and often subjective evaluation.Methodology: The effectiveness of technical analysis tools was tested using selected investment strategies based on oscillators and indicators following the trend. All transactions were carried out on the Meta Trader 4 platform. The analyzed strategies were comprehensively assessed using the portfolio management quality measures, such as the Sharpe measure or the MAR ratio (Managed Account Ratio).Results of the research: The test results confirmed that the application of described investment strategies contributes to the achievement of effective results and, above all, protects the portfolio against a significant loss in the period of strong turmoil on the stock exchange. During the research period, only two strategies (Ichimoku and ETF- Exchange traded fund) would produce negative returns at the worst possible end of the investment. At the best moment, however, the „passive” investment achieved the lowest result. Looking at the final balance at the end of 2019, as many as four systems based on technical analysis were more effective than the „buy and hold” strategy, and at the end of the first quarter of 2020 – all of them. When analyzing the management quality measures, it turned out that taking into account the 21 quarters, the passive strategy had the lowest MAR index. The Sharpe’s measure is also relatively weak compared to the four leading strategies.
Głównym celem artykułu jest zbadanie wpływu stóp procentowych banku centralnego na inwestycje w strefie euro. Na podstawie przeprowadzonej analizy można wywnioskować, że stopa referencyjna ECB opóźniona o dwa kwartały miała odwrotnie proporcjonalny i statystycznie istotny wpływ na poziom inwestycji w strefie euro w latach 1999-2016. Powinniśmy pamiętać, że badany okres obejmuje silne zawirowania w gospodarkach strefy euro spowodowane przez ostatni kryzys finansowy, które w istotnym stopniu wpłynęły na osłabienie oddziaływania polityki monetarnej na sferę realną gospodarki. Pomimo tego w omawianym okresie zależność pomiędzy podstawową stopą EBC opóźnioną o dwa kwartały a inwestycjami była istotna statystycznie, co może wskazywać na to, że stopa procentowa w omawianym okresie miała znaczenie w procesie oddziaływania banku centralnego na inwestycje.
EN
The main objective of this paper is to examine the impact of the central bank’s interest rates on investments in the euro area. The results of the analysis indicate that in 1999-2016 the European Central Bank’s main interest rate lagged by two quarters had an inversely proportionally and statistically significant influence on the level of investment outlays in the euro area. The disturbances that euro-area economies were experiencing in the analysis period due to the recent financial crisis considerably weakened the monetary policy’s effect on the real economy. However, the relationship between the ECB’s main interest rate and investment outlays was statistically significant, implying that the interest rate played a role in the central bank’s influence on investments.
The aim of this article is to present the essence of policy mix and the extraordinary actions undertaken by the monetary and fiscal authorities in Poland in response to the recent financial crisis. In the article, the hypothesis has been put forward that the challenges faced by monetary and fiscal authorities have contributed to carrying out coordinated actions, especially in support of economic growth during the recent financial crisis. As a result, in Poland during the last financial crisis, it seemed to observe greater cooperation between monetary and fiscal authorities.
The purpose of the article/hypothesis: The aim of this article is to examine the effectiveness of trading systems built on the basis of technical analysis tools in 2015–2020 on the DAX stock exchange index. Efficiency is understood as generating positive rates of return, taking into account the risk incurred by the investor, as well as achieving better results than passive strategies. Presenting empirical evidence implying the value of technical analysis is a difficult task not only because of a huge number of instruments used on a daily basis, but also due to their almost unlimited possibility to modify parameters and often subjective evaluation. Methodology: The effectiveness of technical analysis tools was tested using selected investment strategies based on oscillators and indicators following the trend. All transactions were carried out on the Meta Trader 4 platform. The analyzed strategies were comprehensively assessed using the portfolio management quality measures, such as the Sharpe measure or the MAR ratio (Managed Account Ratio). Results of the research: The test results confirmed that the application of described investment strategies contributes to the achievement of effective results and, above all, protects the portfolio against a significant loss in the period of strong turmoil on the stock exchange. During the research period, only two strategies (Ichimoku and ETF- Exchange traded fund) would produce negative returns at the worst possible end of the investment. At the best moment, however, the „passive” investment achieved the lowest result. Looking at the final balance at the end of 2019, as many as four systems based on technical analysis were more effective than the „buy and hold” strategy, and at the end of the first quarter of 2020 – all of them. When analyzing the management quality measures, it turned out that taking into account the 21 quarters, the passive strategy had the lowest MAR index. The Sharpe’s measure is also relatively weak compared to the four leading strategies.
The aim of the article is to identify the changes of selected economic variables in Japan, Poland, the USA and the euro area and to evaluate the impact of these variables on these economies in 2000–2022. The hypothesis posed in the article: The economies of Japan, Poland, the USA and the euro zone have overcome the economic shocks that occurred in the first two decades of the 21st century. Methodology: The study included a review of the literature on the subject, the presentation and analysis of statistical data, including its graphical presentation. Six economic indicators were selected for analysis, such as: the unemployment rate, inflation, General Government debt, long-term interest rates, GDP per capita, and GDP growth in Japan, Poland, the United States and the euro area in 2000–2022. Results of the research: Over the past 20 years, economies have been hit by unprecedented crises such as the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and Covid-19, and yet we note that the surveyed countries and the euro zone showed positive economic growth for most of the period and successfully fought unemployment. Japan tried to get out of periods of deflation, but out of the examined 23 years, deflation was recorded in Japan for 15 years. In the years 2000–2022, the highest economic growth was most often recorded in Poland and the lowest in Japan, but the highest inflation was also most often recorded in Poland. In all the surveyed countries and the euro zone, a tendency to increase the GG of debt was clearly noticed.
The aim of the article: The outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic made it necessary to involve the state in the process of rescuing numerous business entities from bankruptcy. In the European Union, the aid measure for entrepreneurs takes a form of public aid, which, as it turns out, is the necessary and the only tool to protect SME sector enterprises against bankruptcy. Social isolation caused by the virus that spread on a large scale effectively inhibited the development of entrepreneurship, which is inherently related to the economic development of countries. The aim of the article is therefore to indicate that supporting entrepreneurs within the framework of public aid may help to reverse the unfavorable economic trends related to the disturbed development of entrepreneurship. Methodology: The article analyzes and assesses the government solutions introduced to the Polish economic reality, the purpose of which is to counteract the effects of Covid-19. The paper presents the current public aid tools available to entrepreneurs along with their financial dimension. Results of the research: State aid granted by the state to entrepreneurs during the crisis caused by Covid-19 is indispensable for their further functioning. The paper presents aid instruments related to COVID-19 that are available to entrepreneurs. The analysis shows that public aid addressed to entrepreneurs injured as a result of the lockdown comes from many sources and is almost tailored to the individual entrepreneur. The entities providing aid on the basis of state aid include: banks, local government units, executive bodies of local government units, Social Insurance Fund, State Fund for Rehabilitation of Disabled People, financial intermediaries, bodies constituting local government units, the European Investment Bank, Polish Development Fund, district and voivodeship labor offices and BGK (Bank Gospodarstwa Krajowego). Having prepared a package of systemic solutions, the government introduced them systematically, depending on the situation of individual sectors of the economy. Special solutions in the form of financial shields were addressed directly to the tourism sector (e.g. loans for tour operators) or the catering sector, which in the face of the pandemic were most exposed to a decrease in revenues. The impact of introduced solutions on the country’s economy can be assessed only in the next few years, but the multitude and diversified nature of the anti-crisis solutions introduced in Poland will certainly contribute to slowing down the negative consequences of Covid-19 in the economy.
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