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Sovereign credit ratings and CDS spreads in Emerging Europe

100%
Dopierała Ł., Ilczuk D., Wojciechowski L.
Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy
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2020
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vol. 15
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issue 3
419-438
EN
Research background: Sovereign credit ratings play an important role in determining any country?s access to the international debt market. During the global financial crisis and the European debt crisis, credit rating agencies were harshly criticized for the timing of their announcements regarding ratings downgrades and the ranges of those downgrades. Therefore, it is worth considering whether the sovereign credit rating is still a useful benchmark for investors. Purpose of the article: This article examines whether credit rating agencies still provide financial markets with new information about the solvency of governments in Emerging Europe countries. In addition, it describes the differences in the effect of particular types of rating events on financial markets and the impact of individual agencies on the market situation. Our study also focuses on evaluating these occurrences at different stages of the business cycle. Methods: This article uses data about ratings events that took place between 2008 and 2018 in 17 Emerging Europe economies. We took into consideration positive, neutral, and negative events related to ratings changes and the outlooks reported by Fitch Ratings, Moody?s, and Standard & Poor?s. We used a methodology based on event studies. In addition, we performed Wilcoxon signed-ranks test and used a logit model to determine the usefulness of cumulative adjusted credit default swap (CDS) spread changes in predicting the direction of ratings changes. Findings & Value added: Our research provides evidence that the CDS market reflects information regarding government issuers up to three months before ratings downgrades are announced. Information reported to the market by ratings agencies is only relevant in the short timeframe surrounding ratings downgrades and upgrades. However, positive credit rating changes convey more information to the market. We also found strong evidence that, in the post-crisis period, credit ratings provide markets with less information.
2
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Rola instrumentów pochodnych w kryzysie finansowym 2008/2009

100%
Szymańska J.
Ekonomia XXI Wieku
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2014
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issue 2(2)
34-44
EN
The article presents the development of the financial crisis in the United States in 2008/2009, which led to the global financial crisis. The aim of the paper is to systematize the knowledge of the reasons of the crisis. The author shows the correlation among the elements that caused the economy breakdown. The text describes the inception of subprime credits, i.e. mortgages granted to the individuals with poor credit history, securitization and expansion of mortgage and asset-backed securities derived from the subprime credits. The mechanism of the securitization has been broadly described, as well as the idea of the Collateralized Mortgage Obligation presented in 1977. The other derivatives mentioned in the article are Asset Backed Securities, Mortgage Backed Securities, Collateralized Debt Obligations and Credit Default Swaps. The definitions and the clarification of their meaning are supported by the explanation why the investors have been lured and fascinated by them. The author also answers the question why the derivatives became a serious threat to the economic and financial stability. The next problem is the legal context of the crisis, for example the changes brought by Gramm-Leach-Bliley Financial Services Modernization Act of 1999 which allowed the banks to join commercial and investment activity. Such a change made the banks start to compete, to create and to sell Asset Backed Securities, Mortgage Backed Securities, Collateralized Debt Obligations and Credit Default Swaps on a large scale. The next problem described in the text is the evolution of the shadow banking sector, i.e. the parallel banking sector, as well as the large, complex financial institutions (LCFIs) in the 1970s. The another issue is the creation and the burst of the housing bubble. The author presents the development of the real estate and mortgage market commenced by Home Mortgage Disclosure Act and Community Reinvestment Act and supported by Government Sposored Enterprises: Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Among the causes of the global financial crisis the important role is attributed to the credit rating agencies. They have been paid by the financial institutions to prepare the credit ratings of the risky financial instruments. Moreover they were basing on the old models. As the result, the ratings were much overstated and provided false information to the investors. The last part of the article presents how the crisis spread in the United States and how it affected the other economies.
3
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Wirtualne rynki finansowe determinantą zmiany rentowności skarbowych papierów wartościowych na przykładzie USA i Europy

88%
Żuralski J.
Nauki o Finansach
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2014
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issue 2(19)
82-110
EN
The aim of this study is to assess the factors affecting one of the types of virtual financial instruments − treasury bonds − in the face of the financial crisis on the example of the U.S. and European countries (Germany, Poland, Greece, Italy and Spain) over the years 2009-2012. An analysis of yields of Treasury debt securities show a high variability of yields of treasury securities, depending on the changes of the credit risk ratings by the rating agencies. What is more Credit Default Swaps market has also influence on government bond yields. It seems that countries such as Poland, Germany and USA have become the beneficiaries of the turmoil on global virtual financial markets, what at the same time increases the risk of a speculative bubble in bonds of these countries.
4
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Influence of the Greek Crisis on the Risk Perception of European Economies

75%
Kliber A.
Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics
|
2013
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issue 2
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