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Comparison of changes in the labour markets of post-communist countries with other EU member states

100%
Dmytrów K., Bieszk-Stolorz B.
Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy
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2021
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vol. 16
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issue 4
741-764
EN
Since 2004, 11 post-communist countries joined the EU. It has helped to strengthen their international competitiveness. This was linked to the implementation of institutional and economic reforms, significant technological changes and improvements in the quality of human capital, as well as fiscal stabilisation policies. These changes affected their situation in the labour market. Purpose of the article: The aim of the study is to assess changes in the situation in the labour market in the EU with particular emphasis on the post-communist countries in the period 2002? 2019. Methods: The situation of countries in the European labour market was estimated using the TOPSIS method. A similarity matrix of changes in the composite variable for each country was then constructed using the Dynamic Time Warping method. On its basis, homogeneous clusters of countries were determined using the Ward's method. Findings & value added: Four homogenous clusters of countries were formed. The post-communist ones belonged to two groups. In one, there were two countries ? Croatia and Slovakia. The rest of the post-communist countries were in a large cluster, which also included Germany, Malta, Finland, Portugal, France and Belgium. Changes of the situation in the post-communist countries in this group improved very much during the analysed period (this was particularly evident for Czechia, Estonia and Poland). It is interesting to investigate whether the reaction of labour markets to changes in the global economic situation in post-communist countries is similar to that in the old EU countries. The similarity of changes can be measured using the DTW method. There is an empirical research gap in this respect. Therefore, the added value is the use of this method in assessing similarities of changes in the labour market situation in post-communist countries in comparison to the Western European ones.
2
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Mutual relationships between the unemployment rate and the unemployment duration in the Visegrad Group countries in years 2001?2017

100%
Dmytrów K., Bieszk-Stolorz B.
Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy
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2019
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vol. 14
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issue 1
129-148
EN
Research background: The most important indicators that describe the situation on the labour market are the unemployment rate and the unemployment duration. If both these indicators are high, then the human capital deteriorates. Therefore, it seems justified to analyse the mutual relationships between them. Purpose of the article: The article aims at finding the relationships between the unemployment rate and the unemployment duration, and checking if the mutual courses of these two indicators in the Visegrad Group countries are connected with each other. Methods: The business cycle clock methodology will be used to analyse the relationship between the unemployment rate and the median unemployment duration. Next, the similarity of the course of these two indicators will be analysed by means of the Pearson product-moment correlation coefficient and the Dynamic Time Warping (DTW) technique. Findings & Value added: Amongst the analysed countries, Czechia, Poland and Slovakia were, to a certain degree, similar with respect to the mutual course of the unemployment rate and the unemployment duration. Until the peak of the financial crisis in 2009, the unemployment rate and the unemployment duration decreased. During the next years, the unemployment rate was increasing and after 2-3 years it was followed by the increase of the unemployment duration. The situation improved after the year 2013 ? both indicators were decreasing. In Hungary, on the contrary, the unemployment rate was increasing or steady until 2012, and during the following years it started to decrease. However, the course of the unemployment duration was completely different than in remaining countries. The value added of the article is application of the business clock cycle and the Dynamic Time Warping technique in finding the relationships and similarity of courses between the unemployment rate and the unemployment duration.
3
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Wykorzystanie Dynamic Time Warping do analizy polityki pieniężnej, sektora finansowego i wzrostu gospodarczego Polski oraz wybranych krajów Europy Środkowo-Wschodniej

72%
Bernardelli M., Próchniak M.
Studia i Prace Kolegium Zarządzania i Finansów
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2023
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issue 191
101-122
EN
The aim of this study is to examine the impact of the monetary policy (and, more broadly, the financial sector) on the real economy in selected European countries, taking into account their fiscal policy as well. The study includes 15 European countries that are not part of the eurozone and covers the period of 2010–2022. In the analysis, we utilise the Dynamic Time Warping (DTW) method, which is an innovative method for comparing time series, particularly novel in the fields of economics and finance. We compare the countries based on five variables: interest rates, the money supply growth rate, the state consumption expenditure growth rate, the economic growth rate, and the inflation rate. The results show that based on the variables representing the monetary policy (interest rates and money supply dynamics), two clusters of countries with similar monetary policy approaches can be identified. The study provides several recommendations for economic policy, particularly in the field of monetary policy.
PL
Celem niniejszego artykułu było zbadanie oddziaływania polityki pieniężnej (oraz szerzej – sektora finansowego) na realną gospodarkę w wybranych krajach europejskich. Uwzględniono także politykę fiskalną. Badanie obejmowało 15 państw europejskich nienależących do strefy euro oraz okres 2010– 2022. W analizie wykorzystano metodę Dynamic Time Warping (DTW), czyli nowatorską jak na ekonomię i finanse metodę służącą do porównywania szeregów czasowych. W badaniu porównano kraje pod względem pięciu zmiennych: stopy procentowej, tempa wzrostu podaży pieniądza, tempa wzrostu wydatków konsumpcyjnych państwa, tempa wzrostu gospodarczego i stopy inflacji. Wyniki pokazują, że na podstawie zmiennych reprezentujących politykę pieniężną (stopy procentowe i dynamika podaży pieniądza) można wyodrębnić dwa klastry krajów charakteryzujących się podobnym prowadzeniem polityki pieniężnej. Badanie dostarcza wielu rekomendacji dla polityki gospodarczej, zwłaszcza w zakresie polityki pieniężnej.
4
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Relationship between the COVID-19 pandemic and currency exchange rates studied by means of the Dynamic Time Warping method

72%
Landmesser-Rusek J.
Wiadomości Statystyczne. The Polish Statistician
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2022
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vol. 67
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issue 5
1-23
PL
Pandemia COVID-19 wpłynęła na światowy system gospodarczy, w tym na kursy walut. Głównym celem badania omawianego w artykule jest ocena podobieństwa pomiędzy szeregami czasowymi kursów walut przed pandemią i w jej trakcie. Ponadto podjęto próbę zbadania relacji pomiędzy kursami walut a szeregami czasowymi dotyczącymi pandemii COVID-19 w poszczególnych krajach. Aby sprawdzić, czy i w jakim stopniu zmiany kursów walut są związane z rozprzestrzenianiem się COVID-19, zastosowano metodę dynamicznego marszczenia czasu (Dynamic Time Warping – DTW), umożliwiającą obliczenie odległości pomiędzy analizowanymi szeregami czasowymi. Pozwoliło to na pogrupowanie walut według ich zmian w stosunku do dynamiki pandemii. W badaniu wykorzystano dane pochodzące z serwisów internetowych Stooq i Our World in Data. Dane dla 17 walut denominowanych w dolarach nowozelandzkich pochodzą z okresu od 1 stycznia 2019 r. do 10 listopada 2021 r., a dane o pandemii COVID-19 – z okresu od 1 marca 2020 r. do 10 listopada 2021 r. Stwierdzono, że kursy walut kształtowały się odmiennie w okresie przed pandemią oraz w jej pierwszej i drugiej fazie. Wybuch pandemii doprowadził do koncentracji większości walut wokół dolara amerykańskiego (USD). Po odmrożeniu gospodarek nastąpiła polaryzacja rynku walutowego, na którym główne waluty świata skupiły się albo wokół USD, albo wokół euro.
EN
The COVID-19 pandemic affected the entire global economic system, including currency exchange rates. The main objective of this study is to assess the similarity between time series of currency exchange rates before and during the COVID-19 crisis. In addition, the study aims to examine the relationship between the exchange rates of currencies and the COVID-19 time series in particular countries. The Dynamic Time Warping (DTW) method was applied to check if changes in the exchange rates were related to the spread of COVID-19, and if they were, to what extent it was so. The use of the DTW allows the calculation of the distance between analysed time series. In this study, it made it possible to group the analysed currencies according to their change relative to the pandemic dynamics. The study is based on data from the Stooq and Our World in Data websites. Data on the 17 studied currencies denominated in the New Zealand dollar came from the period between 1 January 2019 and 10 November 2021, and the COVID-19 data from the period between 1 March 2020 and 10 November 2021. The results demonstrate that exchange rates evolved differently in all the three analysed periods: the pre-pandemic period and the first and the second phase of the pandemic. The outbreak of the pandemic led to the concentration of most currencies around the US dollar. However, when the economies unfroze, a polarisation of the currency market occurred, with the world’s major currencies clustering either around the US dollar or the euro.
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