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THE ECONOMIC SENTIMENT AND DIVIDEND POLICY IN POLAND (Wplyw nastrojow gospodarczych na decyzje o wyplatach dywidend przez spolki publiczne)

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Kowerski M.

Barometr Regionalny. Analizy i prognozy

2012

issue 1(27)

13-27

In previous research on determinants of company dividend-policy, a much higher significance was given to micro-economic factors describing the economic and financial situation of companies rather than to macro-economic factors. However, there is no analysis of the impact of economic sentiment on the dividend policy of companies. Moreover, companies do not operate in ‘a vacuum'. The economic situation in a certain country and even the global economic situation and its perception by entrepreneurs has a tremendous impact on their activities and decisions. To verify the hypothesis about the impact of economic sentiment on dividend policies of the companies listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange in 1996-2009, logit pooled-regression models were applied. The dependent variable takes a value 1 if the company paid a cash dividend in year t and value 0 otherwise. As explanatory variables, we adopted the most common ones in this type of study, namely those describing the profitability, size, maturity, risk and investment opportunities as well as the dividend policy of the company in the year t - 1. Economic sentiment was measured using the Economic Sentiment Index, computed by the European Commission at monthly intervals. This allowed us to determine the period in which the changes in sentiment have the highest influence on dividend decisions. The estimated models allowed us to draw conclusions that apart from the economic and financial situation of a company in the year t - 1, dividend decisions made in year t are also affected by economic sentiment found in the Polish economy at the turn of the second quarter of year t. According to the Polish Code of Commercial Companies, it is understandable that the company should decide on the distribution of its profit within six months after the end of the business year. The research demonstrates, when making decisions, the boards of companies and shareholders take into account not only profits achieved in the previous year, but also the recent dividend and investment policy, and the current economic sentiment.

Barometr nastrojów gospodarczych jako narzędzie szacowania tempa wzrostu gospodarczego w regionie. Przykład województwa lubelskiego

100%

Kowerski M.

Barometr Regionalny. Analizy i prognozy

2013

issue 1(31)

57-64

GDP per capita is one of the basic criteria for granting European funding to particular regions. However, in Poland the Central Statistical Office calculates the GDP value in regions with a two-year delay. Therefore, it is important to create tools which, with greater accuracy, would make it possible to estimate the growth rate of GDP in regions much earlier than the publications of the Central Statistical Office. In the article, in order to estimate the growth rate of GDP in regions, the autoregressive model is put forward, in which the voivodship entrepreneur’s economic sentiment index is used as one independent variable. The sentiment index is calculated on the basis of a survey, and its value is already known a month after the end of the year, which makes it possible to bring forward the estimation of the growth rate of GDP. Using the proposed model, the growth rate of GDP in the Lubelskie Voivodship in the years 2011–2012 was estimated.

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2 Barometr Regionalny. Analizy i prognozy

2 Kowerski M.

1 2013

1 2012

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THE ECONOMIC SENTIMENT AND DIVIDEND POLICY IN POLAND (Wplyw nastrojow gospodarczych na decyzje o wyplatach dywidend przez spolki publiczne)

Barometr nastrojów gospodarczych jako narzędzie szacowania tempa wzrostu gospodarczego w regionie. Przykład województwa lubelskiego