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EN
In this paper the author tries to check readiness of three Central and Eastern Europe countries, Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland, to introduce European single currency, euro. As a background in the macroeconomic field he uses Optimal Currency Area Theory and in the mathematical field three procedures and models: Stock and Watson unobserved component model, spectral and cross-spectral analysis and cluster analysis. Achieved results allow to state that four years after EU expansion three new countries are rather similar to EMU periphery countries like Italy, Portugal, Spain and Greece than to EMU core economies like Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Germany France and Netherlands.
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Koniec strefy euro?

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EN
In this article the author attempts not only to simply answer the recently more and more current question of whether the euro area will survive, but rather to analyse the events that have led to the current situation and to present possible options to solve problems. First of all, it should be noted that the ongoing crisis is not a monetary crisis – which means that it does not concern the euro as such – but a fiscal crisis, and consequently concerns the systems in the different Member States. The starting point for the analysis is the impact of the global economic crisis originating in the United States on the situation in the European Union, particularly in the euro area, as well as the breakdown of the Eurogroup into the so-called corecountries and the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece, Spain). It is worth stressing that the euro has never been a purely economic concept, but largely a political one as well, and therefore the current situation cannot be analysed only through the prism of economic laws. An analysis of the numerous errors made during the implementation of this project in conjunction with the global economic breakdown have led the Union to an extremely complicated situation, from which there is no single right way out. Currently, five scenarios are the most important, but none of them will be probably fulfilled in pure form. The scenarios are: the vision of a very restrictive financial policy, particularly the fiscal policy; restructuring the debt of the PIGS countries, ‘Argentinisation of Europe’; ‘Resurrection of Europe’; the new economic order based on the position of China and India. There is also a sixth scenario, more and more frequently spoken about by economists, namely that the PIGS countries will leave the euro area, but this seems completely impossible due to the political nature of the concept of the euro area.
EN
This article analyses the results of the Economic and Monetary Union achieved through the first five years of its existence and concludes, that the actual balance of euro is not definitive. On the one side, there is the growing international role of euro, which has become the first real competitor of dollar. On the other side, there is the slow growth of the economic performance of Euro zone, which has become the most backward region of the world economy.
EN
The Slovak Republic became a member of the European monetary union on 1 January 2009. In context of the financial and debt crisis, the evaluation of pros and cons of eurozone membership takes on a completely different perspective. The competitive disadvantage for Slovakia caused by the fixation of the conversion rate to EUR at the peak of the appreciation trend was in the financial crisis compensated to a significant extent by the elimination of currency risk. Strong dependence on the development of foreign demand is thus still being perceived. Eurozone membership has brought more risk than benefit for the field of public finance, especially with regard to the participation liabilities related to the EFSF/ESM rescue mechanisms.
EN
The aim of this research was to evaluate the state of public finance of the 12 new Member States of the EU. It showed that the state of public finance in these countries is generally the effect of conscious state fiscal policies. It means that the EU has not created any effective legal instrument which could stabilise public finance. The only exception was a two-year period of the ERM II system, in which the fiscal convergence criteria were observed. The fiscal rule in the Polish constitution also proved to be a very good solution, worth popularising. Seeking legal instruments which could effectively discipline EU Member States’ public finance should have preceded the creation of the Eurozone. The reality showed that without effective budget policy rules the monetary union was led to a serious crisis, which might bring the Eurozone to its end.
EN
The possibilities of Poland, Latvia and Lithuania to adopt the euro, which is one of most important task of the economic policy in these countries is analyzed in the article. The international importance of the euro, the advantages and disadvantages of the single currency are discussed. Experience of Germany in adopting of the euro is analyzed. The strategy of the adoption of the euro in Lithuania is presented. The analysis based on the data of Eurostat database shows that Poland is the country with most possibilities to adopt the euro. However both Lithuania and Latvia may become the euro zone member states, too, if they firstly will cope with financial problems of the government and will revitalise and develop their internal market.
EN
The debate on the adoption of the Euro and accession to the so-called Euroland has intensified recently in Poland, under the influence of the global financial crisis and the threat of recession hanging over the country. It has rapidly transpired that this issue has not only its economic, but also its political and social dimension. Obviously, the issue is neither simple nor easy, because a national currency is one of the components of national identity and attributes of the state's sovereignty. This is why joining the Eurozone generates objections of the part of the political milieu and society, as exemplified by the 16 states, who have already taken this step. It transpires, however, that it is, in fact, a result of a lack of knowledge, or disinformation, rather than genuine threats related to adoption of the Euro. This article attempts to sketch both the Polish route to the Euro, and the political and socio-economic consequences of Poland's adoption of the Union's currency. The author demonstrates here that this route was entered with Poland's accession to the European Union and that joining the Eurozone is inevitable and will bring about more positives than negatives. The main thesis of the article is the assertion that the adoption of the Euro is in Poland's strategic interest, as it will provide a stimulus to continue structural changes in the national economy, contributing by the same to the economic growth and reduction of unemployment. Moreover, thanks to the Euro's adoption, Poland's international credibility, as well as her its position in both the European Union and the world will be enhanced.
Ekonomista
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2009
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issue 5
579-605
EN
The author deals with the question of unpreparedness of the Polish economy to joining the Eurozone. He shows the levels of divergence in income distribution, in the development of the bank sector in terms of its assets related to GDP, and in the financial weakness of the public sector. He discusses the possible effects of the change of currency for the public, showing the results of divergence between the market exchange rate and the purchasing power parity. He advocates throwing away all general argument for access to the euro-zone as creating illusion. Instead he proposes to scrutinize the consequences of currency change at different levels of exchange rate.
EN
The Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) has gone through the different stages until arriving at the creation of the euro. Now the new ten member states of the European Union (EU) are in the process of trying to close policies in order to meet the macroeconomic criteria of Maastricht. An overview on exchange rate policy of those countries will be analysed in this paper. Most of the new member states have pegged their currencies to the euro and are trying to join with it as soon as possible. Nevertheless, others are still highly linked with the currencies of the international monetary system or their exchange rate policy is still far from meeting the objective of the exchange rate in a short-term period of time.
EN
The introduction of the euro is one of the elements of wider strategy of EU integration. After the accession the new member countries tested significant and rapid inflow of portfolio and direct investments. This Inflow - paradoxically - may make it difficult to introduce a common currency. It is additionally strengthened by the ineffectiveness of the exchange rate mechanism. This ineffectiveness may cause that the rate of exchange can be recognized as guaranteed, taking the currency risk off the market participants who invest in the assets denominated in the currencies of the new member countries or raise a credit in the foreign currency. This causes - short and long term - inflow of the investments, and at the same time bigger pressure of appreciation of these currencies. The effect of the inflow, except the real and the nominal appreciation, is additional inflationary pressure. The thesis advanced by the authors is that, after the asset there is a change of efficiency of the rate of the exchange in Poland, Czech Republic and Hungary. The weekly courses such as EUR/PLN, EUR/CZK, EUR/HUF were examined. The correlations of delays were tested and the Ljunga-Boxa autocorrelation (Q) as well.
EN
The article deal with optimum currency area (OCA) theory and examines which of the new EU member states are suitable candidates for the euro extended by EU-10 countries membership. The OCA index which is based on predicted value of nominal exchange rate variability is used to consider the suitability of monetary union membership. The index is estimated in two steps. First, relationship between the volatility of the nominal exchange rate and the fulfilment of the OCA criteria is estimated on a sample of 11 countries (EU-10 and the euro area) over the period 1999 – 2009. Subsequently, OCA index is calculated as the predicted value of the nominal exchange rate variability EU-10 countries to the euro. The lowest index values achieved the Czech Republic, Slovak Republic, Hungary and Estonia. Those countries seem most appropriate candidates for adopting the single currency euro as compared with other EU-10 countries.
EN
The monetary union is the final stage of the process of European integration. It is also important for the achievement of economic goals of the European Union. The provisions governing the conditions and principles of membership in the monetary union are included in the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union. The so-called convergence criteria and the ERM2 system are the most important of them. As results from the provision of the Treaty, the legal situation of non-euro area EU member states is temporary, and they are legally obliged to introduce the euro. A different situation is in the United Kingdom and Denmark which have secured themselves discretion to decide in this respect. The adoption of the euro is binding. From the legal provisions it may be interpreted that, the access to the monetary union of a member state meeting the convergence requirements (and remaining outside the euro zone) would take place, theoretically, against the will of that state. The majority vote procedure is applied in this respect, and the Council deciding the issue is bound only by the convergence criteria and - as the practice shows - not entirely. Moreover, membership in the euro zone of the EU member state meeting appropriate treaty criteria cannot be blocked. Even in the event that the treaty requires unanimity, none of the members of the euro zone may vote against admission of the state which satisfies formal requirements. This would be in contradiction to the objective of the integration and, therefore, would infringe the obligations of the state resulting from the EU treaties. There are only two ways in which the EU member state possessing its own currency may delay its access to the euro zone The first relates to the decision about joining the exchange rate mechanism (ERM2), as it only a treaty requirement for the monetary union membership, and not an obligation. This question is decided on the state level and is of a strictly political nature. It may also depend on the results of public consultations (referendum). The second way is the determination of the exchange rate of the national currency.
EN
A virtual organization is a community of people who interact together socially on a technical platform. These kinds of communities are built on a common interest, a common problem or a common task of its members that is pursued on the basis of implicit and explicit codes of behavior. The six dimensions that are normally used to analyze virtual organizations are the use of technologies, sense of belonging, success factors, level of trust from members, virtual community management, and contents of the virtual community. The virtual organizations defined in the literature are not defined separately for non-profit research virtual organization. Here we present analysis of non-profit research virtual organization, European Working Group on Operational Research for Development (EGW ORD). This paper provides a summary of achievements and challenges faced in building a virtual organization. This kind of analysis plays a vital role in establishing new non-profit virtual organizations to serve the research community in their field of interest. It is also helpful to the group in broadening its presence and involving more researchers, practitioners and students in the field of operational research.
EN
The Czech Republic and Slovakia before their entrance to the European Union committed to fulfil all conditions necessary for introducing the common European currency. While in a case of the Czech Republic appears as possible term of entrance the country to the Euro-zone year 2012 or even later, in a case of Slovakia is in last months more often discussed about 1st January 2009, whereas it will depend on the level of fulfilment of Maastricht criteria of nominal convergence. Although successful fulfilment of these criteria appears as bottom line for entrancing new country to the Euro-zone, according to many experts, is more important to fulfil real economic convergence criteria. This contribution deals with a process of a real convergence of these two economics.
EN
The seventh Danish EU Presidency of 2012 was inevitably oriented towards the imminent economic challenges faced by the EU. Although the Eurozone crisis remained the most urgent issue facing the EU, the Danish Presidency, maintained its focus on other important policy areas as well. The four key words of the Danish EU presidency, reflecting its priorities, were to make the EU more (1) Responsible (2) Dynamic (3) Green and (4) Safe. In this article we discuss to what extent and in what ways the Danish Presidency fulfilled its ambitions concerning these four focal points. In order to evaluate and understand the performance of the Presidency, we discuss the new role of the Council Presidency introduced by the Lisbon Treaty (2009), the implications of the specific domestic context of Danish politics, and the sta¬tus of Denmark as a ’small and reluctant Member State’. We postulate that the Danish Presidency of 2012 was particularly successful in performing the role as mediator in important inter-institutional negotiations. Yet in terms of shaping the EU political agenda, the achievements were less significant.
EN
This paper reviews some of the factors that potentially contribute to macro-prudential weakness, and thus concerns about macroeconomic and financial system health in the new EU member states of Central and Eastern Europe. In general, the consequences of the global 2008 – 2009 crisis were more severe in some of the new EU countries, and it is useful therefore to look at the experiences in the different countries to try and understand the reasons for the different outcomes and look to see what lessons may be learned. One of the factors having an impact on recovery from the crisis is in currency relationships, with Estonia, Latvia, Slovenia and Slovakia being members of the Eurozone, and some other countries in fixed exchange rate relationships. In this paper we present the construction of a new indicator (named the TT index) evaluating macroeconomic vulnerability of the new EU countries, which is based on seven macro prudential indicators and calculated for the years 2008 and 2013.
EN
The paper offers an insight into the relationship between the euro to US dollar nominal exchange rate and the cost of sovereign credit default swaps (CDSs) of five selected countries of the Eurozone: Germany and the PIGS countries. The investigation is undertaken under the rationalized belief that the former indicator represents the status of external economic stability of a country and the latter indicator is a descriptor of their internal debt capacity. The results affirm, inter alia, that there were substantial differences in the intensity and quality of the relation between external economic stability and internal debt capacity during the pre-crisis period as opposed to the crisis period.
EN
The article below is a response to the question about consequences of two milestones of contemporary Polish history to the local communities. These two events of the latest history are significant: 15 years since the territorial reform and introduction of three‑leveled regional authority and the 10th anniversary of Polish membership in the European Union. Based on the researches and replies to the questions of the respondents we are allowed to address an issue not only of potential successes and benefits connected with the mentioned events but also all failures, which create discomfort in existence of local communities in their homeland. The author presents an attitude of citizens of 6 Polish municipalities to the European Union as well as the most important advantages and disadvantages of Polish participation in the structures of the EU (connotations to the EU, satisfaction from drawdown European funds and the matter of introducing common currency to Polish economics). Data from the surveys will be confronted with the perspective of respondents to low public administration, predominantly in municipalities (an ability to absorb EU funds with all the consequences such as debts, decisions consulting, satisfaction from civil service along with the most common pathologies).
EN
The aim of this study is the assessment of the applicability of the Austrian School theory in explaining products’ price volatility at particular stages of structure of production. This assessment was based on the authorial model and the usage of statistical tests. Empirical verification of Austrian School theories is rare in economic literature. The test method used in this study fills the gap in the price volatility research. Proposed approach was not used in regards to the Austrian School theory before. The data analysis of the years among 2010 – 2017 indicated an existence of statistically significant differences in price volatility within various stages of production structure in all analysed economies, including the euro area, Germany and France. In the analysed years price volatility of goods was higher at stages of production structure more distant to final consumer goods. The exception was lower price volatility on capital goods stage compared to consumer goods in euro area and French economy.
EN
The paper gives an analysis of the financial dimension of Poland’s economic security during the economic crisis in Euro-Atlantic zone. Membership in the European Union and the high exchange rate volatility are crucial determinants of Poland’s economic security. It is considered that this factor plays and will play a significant impact on the situation in Poland due to the large amount of mortgages denominated in foreign currencies and granted by the banks. Conclusion of the analysis is that Poland has managed to maintain security after the financial crisis in 2008 and today.
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