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EN
Behavior of interest rates is of key importance for understanding the functioning of an open economy. The simplest models usually assume equal interest rates in individual countries, while the international arbitrage serves as a mechanism of their equalization. In our study an attempt has been made to determine whether and to what extend the interest rates in the Polish market are linked to the USA and the euro zone exchange rates. The analyses have been carried out for rates of different maturity terms, using the integration and co-integration concept.The analyses indicate that differences between the Polish interest rates, and those in the USA and the euro zone have strongly diminished. Cointegration analyses show the existence of a long-term linkages between the domestic and foreign interest rates, in particular with those in the euro zone. The nature of co-integrating relationships was different in the period 2001-2004 as compared with that after 2004, when we see a stronger impact of the euro zone rates than those of the USA. It may be assumed that the Polish accession to the EU had certain influence in the change of the above mentioned relationships.
PL
W przedstawionym artykule „Koniunktura na polskim rynku kapitałowym wobec sytuacji na rynkach wiodących” podjęto próbę określenia siły i kierunku powiązań pomiędzy indeksem WIG Giełdy Papierów Wartościowych w Warszawie a indeksami wiodących giełd światowych: Stany Zjednoczone (S&P 500) oraz Japonia (NIKKEI 225). Analizie poddano dane dzienne wartości wybranych indeksów giełdowych za lata 2000-2008. Wykorzystano tutaj proste metody korelacyjne oraz model z Mechanizmem Korekty Błędem. Wyniki badań wskazują na pełne zintegrowanie polskiego rynku z rozwiniętymi rynkami zagranicznymi. Wysoka siła powiązania uwidoczniła się w ostatnich latach. Reakcja rynku polskiego na sytuację na rynkach zagranicznych następuje w czasie rzeczywistym. Podstawową przyczyną integracji rynków jest ich otwartość oraz rozwój technik komunikacji.
EN
The paper presents an attempt towards determination of the strength and direction of relations between the WIG index of Stock Exchange in Warsaw and the indexes of leading world stock exchanges in the United States (S&P 500) and Japan (NIKKEI 225). The daily data values of selected stock exchange indexes for the period 2000-2008 were analyzed, using the simple correlation methods and a model with Error Correction Mechanism. The results point out at full integration of Polish market with the developed foreign markets. The high strength of relations has occurred in recent years. The Polish market response to situation on foreign markets occurs in real time. The basic cause of market integration is their open nature and development of communication techniques.
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