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Estimation and forecast of carbon dioxide emission in Iran: Introducing a new hybrid modelling

100%
Tavan M.
Journal of Economics and Management
|
2019
|
vol. 36
144-167
EN
Aim/purpose – The purpose of this paper is to introduce a new hybrid modelling to predict carbon dioxide emissions in order to make the correct decision to reduce air pollution in Iran. While there are not many data available for some variables, in this modelling, the goal is to make accurate predictions even with low data. Design/methodology/approach – In the present paper, CO2 emissions in Iran in the period of 1980-2014 was predicted using three models of Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL), Fuzzy Linear Regression (FLR) and hybrid model based on combination of ARDL and FLR models, and then the prediction accuracy of the models is compared. Findings – Comparing prediction accuracy of models showed that the Fuzzy Auto- -Regressive Distributed Lag (FARDL) is more accurate than the initial patterns for predicting carbon dioxide emissions. Finally, the results showed that GDP and energy consumption has a positive and significant correlation with carbon dioxide emissions in short run. Also, the carbon dioxide emission indicated a low elasticity towards GDP and low energy consumption. Research implications/limitations – When the number of data is low, the FARDL model provides a more accurate prediction than ARDL and FLR Models. FARDL’s combined model reduces the problems that exist in the ARDL and FLR models. One of the problems with the ARDL model is the need for many tests; the problem with the fuzzy regression model is also the high fuzzy distance length that makes decision making difficult. The FARDL model eliminates these constraints as much as possible. Originality/value/contribution – This paper has been able to confirm that Fuzzy Auto- -Regressive Distributed Lag (FARDL) is more accurate than the initial patterns for predicting carbon dioxide emissions.
2
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Wybrane aspekty sytuacji demograficzno- -społecznej osób starszych w województwie śląskim

63%
Sojka E.
Studia Ekonomiczne
|
2016
|
vol. 286
146-164
PL
W artykule przedstawiono sytuację społeczno-demograficzną osób starszych zamieszkujących województwo śląskie oraz dokonano oceny przewidywanych zmian w stanie i strukturze tej grupy wiekowej w perspektywie 2050 r. W końcowej części opracowania przeanalizowano wyniki prognozy wybranych parametrów określających sytuację finansową systemu emerytalnego w Polsce.
EN
The paper presents social and demographic reality of elderly people residing in Silesian Voivodeship. It also includes the assessment of projected changes in condition and structure of this age group in the perspective of 2050. The final part of the paper focuses on results of forecasts of selected parameters describing financial reality of the pension scheme in Poland.
3
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Ocena przydatności modelu ekonometrycznego do badania zmian dynamiki gospodarki województwa śląskiego

63%
Biolik J.
Studia Ekonomiczne
|
2015
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vol. 220
9-20
PL
Celem artykułu jest prognostyczna weryfikacja modelu gospodarki województwa śląskiego oraz ocena dynamicznych własności gospodarki na podstawie pierwiastków charakterystycznych równania końcowego. Na podstawie danych z lat 1999-2011 oszacowano parametry modelu charakteryzującego gospodarkę województwa śląskiego. Na bazie obliczonych prognoz na jeden okres naprzód oceniono wartość prognostyczną modelu. Do oceny dynamicznych własności modelu wykorzystano pierwiastki charakterystyczne równania końcowego.
EN
The purpose of the article is a prognostic verification of Silesian voivodship’s economy model and the evaluation of dynamic properties of economy on the basis of characteristic roots of final equation. The parameters of a model characterizing the economy of the Silesian voivodship were estimated on the basis of the data from the period of 1999-2011. The prognostic value of the model was estimated on the basis of prognoses calculated for one period. The evaluation of dynamic properties of the model was based on the characteristic roots of final equation.
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