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Modelling and Prognosis of the Export of the Republic of Serbia by Using Seasonal Holt-Winters and Arima Method

100%

Mladenović J., Lepojević V., Janković-Milić V.

Economic Themes

2016

vol. 54

issue 2

233-260

Low labour costs as one of the key sources of export stimulation, the competitive advantage of domestic agricultural production and bilateral agreements with partner countries - all promote export as a potentially significant factor of encouragement of economic development of the Republic of Serbia.Taking into account this fact, on the one hand, and balance of payments problems that Serbia has been facing over the years, on the other hand, the subject of this paper is an analysis of trends in the Republic of Serbia export and explanation of variations in the export trends during the period from 2004 to 2014. The aim of the paper is to explore export trends forecast from January to December 2015.The analysis uses Holt-Winters and ARIMA methods for analyszing time series.The paper provides insight into the export trend forecasts for the period of 12 months, and thus confirms the possibility of practical usage of the time series analysis methods in forecasting macroeconomic variables such as export. The used methods identify increase of export during the summer and its decrease after October 2015. The paper establishes the existence of a high degree of congruence between forecasts obtained by using two methods, which confirm a high quality of the elaborated methods in the analysis of exports.

The forecasting potential of adaptive models in tourism

84%

Aleksandrova A., Aigina E., Dombrovskaya V.

Turyzm

2021

vol. 31

issue 2

181-196

Autorki omawiają prognozowanie jako szczególny obszar badań naukowych, który pomaga ocenić perspektywy rozwoju aktywności turystycznej, zidentyfikować kluczowe czynniki procesu zmian zachodzących w turyzmie oraz kryteria efektywnego zarządzania. Artykuł zawiera przegląd nowoczesnych metod badawczych stosowanych w Rosji i w innych krajach do sporządzania prognoz w dziedzinie turystyki. Celem opracowania jest ocena predyktywnych możliwości modelowania adaptacyjnego, obecnie niezbyt często stosowanego w badaniach turystycznych, do przeprowadzania ilościowej analizy ruchu turystycznego. Na podstawie danych dotyczących Barcelony – dużego miejskiego centrum turystycznego w czasach przed pandemią – opierając się na modelach adaptacyjnych, przedstawiono przykład prognozy liczby podróżnych. Jest to jeden z głównych wskaźników sukcesu turystycznego ujawnionego w trakcie badania procesów o dynamicznym, lecz niestałym charakterze.

The article discusses forecasting as one of the special scientific research areas which contribute to the assessment of tourist activity development prospects, the identification of key tourism development factors and effective management decision criteria. The study provides an overview of modern research methods used in Russia and other countries for making forecasts in the field of tourism. It aims at assessing the predictive capabilities of adaptive modeling, not frequently used currently in tourism research, for the quantitative analysis of tourist flows using the example of Barcelona, a major urban tourist destination in the pre-pandemic period. An example of a forecast for tourist numbers based on adaptive models is proposed, one of the key indicators showing tourist region success which have proven successful in the study of processes with a dynamic but unstable character.

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1 Economic Themes

1 Turyzm

1 Aigina E.

1 Aleksandrova A.

1 Dombrovskaya V.

1 Janković-Milić V.

1 Lepojević V.

1 Mladenović J.

1 2021

1 2016

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Modelling and Prognosis of the Export of the Republic of Serbia by Using Seasonal Holt-Winters and Arima Method

The forecasting potential of adaptive models in tourism