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1

The system for targeting inflation goals in Hungary

100%
Cseermely A.
Kozgazdasagi Szemle (Economic Review)
|
2006
|
vol. 53
|
issue 12
1058-1079
EN
The article sums up the economic thinking behind the system for targeting inflation in Hungary and the main economic-policy experiences with this. It presents briefly a framework model that the author sees as best reflecting present central-bank thinking about the functioning of the economy. It summarizes what normative conclusions can be drawn with the model about optimal monetary policy, and how these theoretical issues are reflected in the monetary systems for targeting inflation. The article then turns to international experience with the effectiveness and success of the regime. Finally, the author looks back over five years at the conditions that accompanied the targeting of inflation, at subsequent experiences with the economic-policy issues of that period, and at operation of the system so far.
2

The optimal horizon for inflation targeting in Hungary.

100%
Varpalotai V.
Kozgazdasagi Szemle (Economic Review)
|
2006
|
vol. 53
|
issue 12
1135-1154
EN
The paper presents calculations of the optimal horizons for inflation targeting in Hungary, using small-scale macro and vector auto-regressive models, relying on the theoretical framework of Batini and Nelson (2000). Given the assumed parameter values of central-bank preference, it was found that current National Bank practice, i. e. putting the inflation forecast for the next one to one-and-a-half years into the policy rule and using this horizon in its communication, can be regarded as optimal with respect to welfare analysis. In most cases of potential future shocks, this horizon also proved long enough to bring inflation back on target following an optimal monetary policy. However, there is no precluding the probability of future shocks that divert inflation from its target for longer than one to one-and-a-half years, when MNB follows an optimal monetary policy.
3
Content available remote

Monetary Policy of the Baltic States - new EU Members

100%
Przybylska-Kapuscinska W.
Ekonomia. Rynek, Gospodarka, Społeczeństwo
|
2007
|
issue 19
31-51
EN
On 1 May 2004, new East and Central European states that had made a major breakthrough in their social and economic system found themselves within the European Union area. A fundamental decision of capital importance for their future had been the transformation of centrally planned economies into market economies. This required an extreme determination, consistence and sacrifices, and entailed different social and economic costs. The economies in transformation carried out many indispensable reforms and among them changes in the functioning of the banking sector, development of an independent central bank and choice of a defined monetary policy strategy. The fundamental problem in the monetary policy of the East and Central European countries was the necessity to get under control the high inflation and build up the credibility of their national currencies in the face of both the changing external conditions and the differentiation of the political, economic and social situation in the group of the countries in question. Stabilization of prices on a low level became the main criterion in the adaptation processes of those countries on their road to integration with the European Community structures. This criterion also became the most important determinant of the monetary policy and its strategies adopted by the individual countries running for the EU membership. The paper focused on presentation of the methods adopted by the group of East European Baltic countries in the conduct of their economic policy. Thus, the monetary policy of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia was presented. These three countries distinguish themselves among the new EU members by their geopolitical situation because all of them have emerged from the disintegration of the Soviet Union and constitute a relatively homogeneous group of economies in transformation. Certain elements of homogeneity can also be observed in the monetary policy adopted by them. In the first part of the paper, the essence of the exchange rate strategy applied in practice by the new Baltic EU member countries was characterized. Then, in consideration of the fact that the most important conditions substantial from the point of view of the monetary policy, and related to the accession of the countries in question to the Eurosystem, were the independence of the central bank and the definition of the main goal of their monetary policy so as to make it compatible with the goal of the European Central Bank, the process of shaping the monetary policy in the individual countries was presented in more detail, in concentrating on the problem of institutional independence of the central bank and on the main goals and instruments of the monetary policy. Also, the course of the inflationary processes over the period of 1997-2005 was monitored.
4

INFLATIONS TARGETING AS AN OPTIMUM MODE OF MONETARY POLICY IN UKRAINE (Tarhetuvannia infliatsii iak optymalnyi rezhym monetarnoi polityky v Ukraini)

80%
Hnativ O. A.
Rehionalna ekonomika
|
2009
|
issue 2(52)
119-125
EN
The problems of the current mode of the monetary structure in Ukraine have been analysed. Optimum mode of monetary policy on the modern stage of the country economic development has been determined. The comparative analysis of macroeconomic development of Ukraine and other countries who passed to inflation targeting has been given.
5

THE IMPACT OF MONETARY POLICY SHOCKS IN A SMALL OPEN ECONOMY

80%
Caraiani P.
Ekonomický časopis (Journal of Economics)
|
2008
|
vol. 56
|
issue 6
537-550
EN
In this paper the author uses an open economy dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model and estimates it for Romanian economy using the Bayesian techniques. He estimates then the impact of domestic and external monetary policy shocks. The domestic interest shocks produce strong effects on output and exchange rate, and moderate ones on inflation. The effects are not very persistent. The results show that the monetary policy shocks from Euro Area do matter for Romanian economy, but in moderate way. Overall, monetary policy in Romania is found to be less gradual but more conservative than the ECB one.
6

Models and the Decision Making Mechanism in Monetary Policy

80%
Zyzynski J.
Ekonomista
|
2006
|
issue 2
169-183
EN
The basic question posed in the article pertains the monetary policy: should it be discretional in character or should it rely on some sound rules? The author discusses certain decision making rules (active and passive as well as instrumental and goal oriented) with the reference to models suggested by Taylor and Svensson and postulates that the potential output in these models be derived on the basis of production generated by full employment and not on the long term trend. Such a change would help the formulation of full employment policies. It is stressed that monetary policy, during the process of integration with the EU, should distinguish itself by a select character, since the standard rules for setting targets and implementing monetary policy decisions do not take the adjustment conditions into account. In effect of present day practice interest rates are set at too high levels. The article is concluded with the assessment of the results of high interest rates' policies as well as with the conclusions that address the mechanism of decision making.
7

THE REAL ESTATE BUBBLES AND MONETARY POLICY - THE US CASE

80%
Belke A., Wiedmann M.
Ekonomický časopis (Journal of Economics)
|
2006
|
vol. 54
|
issue 9
898-917
EN
This paper attempts to provide an answer on the question - whether the recent surge in the US real estate prices is fundamentally driven, or whether the current situation reflects the 'bubble' symptoms. Implicitly, also monetary policy in the euro area in these days is addressed as well with France and Spain experiencing exorbitant price increases of the real estate during at least the last four years. Our aim is to divide the valuation of the US housing market into a 'bubble' component and into a fundamentally justified component. For this purpose, the US real estate market and its peculiarities are described and the empirical indications of a bubble are identified. We contrast the empirical results with the ongoing question whether the asset prices and the asset price bubbles are and should be a matter of attention of the central bank authorities in the process of the monetary policy making.
8

Interest Rate and the Money Demand Function (Can the Paradigm Be Changed?)

80%
Koronowski A. K.
Ekonomista
|
2006
|
issue 2
145-168
EN
The prevailing theoretical paradigm stipulating that demand for money negatively depends on nominal interest rate is in sharp contradiction with real monetary policy. It also leads to inconsistencies. The choice of the nominal rate of interest as the argument of money demand function determines the results of some known models - should they link demand for money to the real interest rate, the results would be different. These observations lead to reconsideration of the established theoretical reasoning concerning the motifs of monetary policies. Following these considerations a new paradigm linking interest rate and the demand for money is offered. The inference is that it is the real interest rate that plays crucial role in the determination of demand for money and that this relation is quite complex.
9

Poland's Accession to the Eurozone - Critical Analysis

80%
Lis S.
Ekonomista
|
2008
|
issue 3
329-355
EN
The article contains the results of theoretical and empirical analysis of approaches and hypotheses that concern costs and benefits resulting from Poland's accession to the eurozone. Comparative analysis indicates that the bottom line results of Poland joining the Economic and Currency Union should be - in the longer run - advantageous. The path leading Poland to eurozone seems to be difficult because the country does not meet nominal and real convergence criteria. The fundamental problem is attributable to the need of deep reformulation of structural policy: modernization of state institutions and of the economy, improvements in policy mix are the main points. Poland should be well prepared and 'ripe' to benefit from opportunities ensuing from integration. Voluntary or too early resignation from the ability to conduct own monetary and exchange policies would not safeguard the stability of macroeconomic policy under conditions of contemporary challenges facing the world economy. The article is concluded with the statement that the integration with the monetary union should be desirable and, in the overall account, will bring benefits for Poland.
10

MEASURING MONETARY POLICY IN EMERGING ECONOMY: THE ROLE OF MONETARY CONDITION INDEX

80%
Thanh Trung B.
Ekonomický časopis (Journal of Economics)
|
2022
|
vol. 70
|
issue 6
499 – 522
EN
Measuring the stance of monetary policy is of importance for the analysis and implementation of monetary policy. In emerging economies, the popular use of multiple instrument framework as well as the significance of interest rate channel and exchange rate channel implies that monetary condition index (MCI) can play an important role in evaluating the timing of tightening or loosing monetary policy. In this paper, we aim to evaluate the role of MCI as an overall measure of monetary policy in emerging economy that follow inflation targeting by using the VAR model. The weight of MCI components, exchange rate and interest rate, is derived from the inflation equation in the VAR model. It shows that exchange rate plays a significant role but its weight is less than that of interest rate in most emerging economies. Furthermore, the empirical results show that inflation shows a reduction after a contractionary shock of monetary policy in most emerging economies. The finding implies that MCI is a useful indicator that can predict changes in the stance of monetary policy and the trend in inflation.
11

Polityka fiskalna i monetarna zakonu krzyżackiego

80%
Żurek Ł.
Zeszyty Naukowe Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego w Krakowie
|
2012
|
issue 879
81-91
EN
The Teutonic Order, as an institution acting both in the sacrum and profane spheres, permanently influenced the economic development not only of Western Europe, where its centers were located, but also and even more importantly Prussian territory, and by virtue of the trade the knights carried out, the whole of Europe. The fiscal and monetary policy of the Teutonic Order was treated instrumentally by the organisation’s authorities. It helped the Order to achieve its primary goals, namely the power of community and the wealth that grew out of it. A stable currency and adapting of the tax system to the prevailing socio-economic conditions were not favourable enough circumstances for the Order to make the reforms required to not only progress but also ensure the stable functioning of the body politic. The worsened economic situation, deteriorating at the hands of war, revealed negligence in handling monetary stability and the already too high tax burden increased recession, which contributed to the fall of the Order and the secularisation of the state. The efficient rule of the monastic state observed until the 14th century was complemented by equally efficient monetary and tax policy, and benefited the order in that it induced general economic growth in Prussia. However, the lack of suitable tax reforms and inappropriate measures in the monetary sphere by depreciation and deterioration of money in the 15th and 16th centuries led to the gradual fall of the monastic state.
12

Investment vs. Share Market Profitability

80%
Lon E.
Pieniądze i Więź
|
2005
|
vol. 8
|
issue 3(28)
47-58
EN
The article analyses the relation between investments and share market profitability. The research covered the investment effect in the USA and other countries. It measured the monetary policy influence on stock market index Standard & Poors' return rate. The research included also the degree of economy globalisation in a given country to explain the mechanism combining market share values and future investment tendencies in the mature and emerging economies. The researchers compared direct and indirect investment effect in chosen countries. The research proves that FED expansive monetary policy in a year T positively influences and the restrictive one negatively influences share market in the same year. The expansive policy leads also to the much higher investments next year than the restrictive one. Between the stock market index rate in a given year and real investment changes in the next year there is a positive correlation. The value of this relation reflects the strength of investment effect. Its importance describes the indicator measuring the relation between emission revenues and investment expenditure. The characteristic feature of emerging markets is that their share markets predict especially future domestic investment activities. Share market is more effective as a transmission channel than traditional rate. It is visible in all the mature markets. The investment effect can be observed also in the relation between stock exchange index and accompanying changes of business optimism.
13

NON-LINEAR MONETARY POLICY MODELLING WITH GOVERNMENT DEBT AS A THRESHOLD: THE CASE OF THE CZECH REPUBLIC

80%
Bikár M., Hodula M.
Ekonomický časopis (Journal of Economics)
|
2018
|
vol. 66
|
issue 6
561 – 579
EN
In this paper, we examine the extent to which monetary policy might be constrained by the evolution of government indebtedness. We employ a threshold vector auto regression (TVAR) model to capture the possible asymmetries in the relationship between monetary policy and the real economy, corresponding to a switch between low and high growth rates of the government debt-to-GDP ratio. The analysis is performed on Czech data over the 2001 – 2016 periods. The results show that the reaction of a central bank to macroeconomic shocks can be regime-dependent. We find that a rising government debt could constrain monetary policy, which manifests through an altered monetary policy transmission to the real economy. Overall, our study demonstrates the advantages of using a non-linear approach to study the fiscal and monetary policy interactions.
14

Monetary Policy and Financial (In)Stability

80%
Koronowski A.
Contemporary Economics
|
2010
|
issue 2(14)
21-33
EN
This paper presents how monetary policy, restricted only by price stability, may easily become propitious to asset inflation and - eventually - to a financial crisis. This risk is particularly high when the financial system lacks proper regulation and effective supervision. Hasty liberalization, negligence of official oversight and 'Greenspan doctrine' which refuted any activist policy promoting financial stability characterized Fed's monetary policy under the former Fed's governor. The paper also analyses another aspect of the linkages between monetary policy and financial crises - monetary policy reaction to financial crises. It is not surprising that it consists of cutting interest rates and bail-out of insolvent, systemically important financial institutions. Such policy, especially when run too long and changed too abruptly, not only creates moral hazards but it also sets the stage for another 'search for yield' and build-up of another speculative bubble. As a result, monetary policy becomes asymmetric and pro-cyclical. Fed's reaction to the recent crisis seems to be very much in line with this pattern typical of Fed's policy in the past. However, this time the scale of flooding the economy with liquidity and - as a consequence - the risks of future major imbalances in the financial system are unprecedented. A general conclusion of the paper says that there can't be a sound financial and economic system unless money itself is a scarce resource. However trivial this statement is, monetary policy of some central banks seems to miss the point.
15

CAUSES OF THE WORLD FINANCIAL CRISIS OF 2007 -2009 AND THEIR IMPLICATIONS FOR MONETARY POLICY (Przyczyny swiatowego kryzysu finansowego w latach 2007 - 2009 i implikacje dla efektywnosci ) polityki pienieznej

80%
Holubowicz L.
Optimum. Studia Ekonomiczne
|
2011
|
issue 3(51)
147-162
EN
The purpose of this paper is two-fold. First, it attempts to determine the causes of the financial crisis that occurred between 2007 and 2009. Second, the author gives an answer to the question of what systemic changes should be introduced to avoid a similar scenario in future. To pinpoint the causes of the crisis, a method based on verification of scientific hypotheses is used. The process of verification allows one to assert that the subprime crisis which started in the USA was caused by both introduction of the National Homeownership Strategy in 1993 and too low interest rates. As for the second problem, a good solution can be the introduction of a new monetary policy instrument. Central bank's new interest rate should determine a minimum level of mortgage loans regardless of the price of money on the interbank market.
16

UKRAINE'S MONEY-AND-CREDIT MARKET: THE CRISIS LESSONS AND SHORT-TERM PROSPECTS (Hroshovo-kredytnyi rynok Ukrainy: kryzovi uroky ta korotkostrokovi perspektyvy)

80%
Danylenko A. I., Shelud'ko N. M.
Ekonomika i prohnozuvannia (Economics and Forecasting)
|
2010
|
issue 1
9-19
EN
The article generalizes the tendencies of the functioning of Ukraine's money-and-credit market during the crisis period. The authors evaluate the adequacy of the current anti-crisis money-and-credit policy and outline the key challenges and risks for the monetary and credit sphere of Ukraine's economy in the current year.
17
Content available remote

MONETARY POLICY UNDER CONDITIONS OF 'NAIRU' FLATTENING

80%
Balcerzak A.
Olsztyn Economic Journal
|
2009
|
vol. 4
|
issue 1
95-105
EN
The last decades represent a period of global economy fast transformation, which is reflected in the real life and leads to changes in relations between the situation in the labour market and the inflation processes. Those changes are frequently referred to as 'NAIRU' flattening. It can be expected that it will bring important consequences for the process of national monetary policy development in individual countries. The aim of the paper is to present analysis of the influence of NAIRU flattening on the effectiveness of the national monetary policy and effectiveness of its tools.
18

Level and Structure of the Monetary Base in Poland

80%
Jedruchniewicz A.
Pieniądze i Więź
|
2008
|
vol. 11
|
issue 3(40)
151-160
EN
Monetary base is one of these economical categories which play the particular role not only in monetary policy but also in whole economy. The main aim of the article was to present changes and structure of monetary base in Poland, as well as to define causes of these changes. In analyzed period (2001-2007) volume of the monetary base systematically increased (+53,9 billion PLN). Financial reserve accrual's variations were caused by unequal level of debt of household and enterprises, foreign assets' influx into Poland, and most of all operations of the central bank.
19

Polityka monetarna - restrykcyjna czy ekspansywana?

80%
Szafarczyk A.
Contemporary Economics
|
2007
|
issue 4(4)
23-43
EN
The monetary policy plays an important role in macroeconomic policy of government. There is a question concerning type of this policy expansive or restrictive (easy or tidy monetary policy). Unfortunately, we have a lot of criteria. Each of them gives us other answer. So due to equitation of Irving Fisher we have dominantly expansive monetary policy. The same situation exists when we use nominal value of rediscount interest rate of central bank. Opposite result appears when we use real value of this interest rate or level of obligatory reserve. Taking under consideration liquidity on money market we know, that level of interest rate is too high.
20

Dispute over the Objective of the Central Bank of Poland in the Light of the Role of Banking Sector in the Economy

80%
Zyzynski J.
Ekonomista
|
2005
|
issue 5
569-594
EN
The author critically analyzes monetary policy pursued during the recent years by the Central Bank of Poland and poses a question whether the parliamentary bill on the National Bank of Poland correctly indicates its objectives. In particular, the issue whether the single objective, viz. the currency stability, is not too narrowly formulated? The article indicates that the open market policy in actual fact causes deep dis-equilibrium on the monetary market and identifies its effects which manifest themselves in high over-liquidity and shortage of loan potential as well as in the transfer abroad of sizeable funds in the form of foreign assets. The conclusion is that the stability of the currency, as the objective - from the macroeconomic point of view - was not rational, due to its high cost.
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