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Czy w Polsce występuje efekt histerezy bezrobocia?

100%
Arendt Ł.
Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics
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2006
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vol. 212
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issue 11-12
25-46
EN
The study sets out to determine if it is possible to speak of an “unemployment hysteresis” effect in Poland. The paper uses two research methods: a descriptive analysis of structural factors that maybe responsible for changes in the Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment (NAIRU) in Poland; and the Gordon method (1989), on the basis of which the author checks the hypothesis about the existence of unemployment hysteresis in Poland. The analysis showed that structural changes were unlikely to contribute to an increase in NAIRU. On the basis of the Gordon model the author demonstrated that there was no reason to reject the hypothesis about the occurrence of “full unemployment hysteresis” in Poland. Even though the results obtained by the author do not clearly confirm that Polish unemployment is indeed characterized by hysteresis, it seems that this lag effect may explain why Poland still suffers from high unemployment, the author notes. The hysteresis effect is primarily due to the outflow of labor and an insufficient level of human capital in the Polish economy.
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HOW MAINSTREAM ECONOMISTS EXPLAIN (OR NOT) UNEMPLOYMENT?

88%
HUSSON M.
Society Register
|
2019
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vol. 3
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issue 2
21-37
EN
One of the tasks assigned to mainstream economists is to legitimize the significance of unemployment. This paper aims to reconstruct the evolution of their approaches from the theoretical impossibility asserted by Pigou to the recognition of involuntary unemployment by Keynes and eventually to different versions of the natural unemployment rate. The unemployment rate had become an instrument for fine-tuning of the economy, but it no longer fulfills this role. It is then the whole dominant macroeconomics that is shaken to its foundations. But this crisis might help to return to expansionary fiscal policies (a Green New Deal) and to the Job Guarantee, thus echoing Keynes’ question: ‘There is work to do; there are men to do it. Why not bring them together?’
3

ODHADY MÍRY NEZAMĚSTNANOSTI NEAKCELURIJÍCÍ INFLACI V ČESKÉ REPUBLICE A NA SLOVENSKU

75%
Jasová E.
Ekonomický časopis (Journal of Economics)
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2011
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vol. 59
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issue 4
368 – 391
EN
The intention of this analysis is mapping variability of the NAIRU because of different methods and application methods on data two different countries. The author aims at detection and analysing in stable condition with structural shifts, which lead to changes in development of the NAIRU in researched countries. On the end of the paper she uses experience to prediction of development of the NAIRU in short future. In article some steps are suggested, which should increase applicability of the concept NAIRU for discussion macroeconomic policies. For the estimation of the NAIRU development, the slope and the shift of the Phillips curve, she applied the system of the methods which are commonly used at the international level. The figure of NAIRU can be investigated as a dependent variable during the research time period. Main factors causing the greatest changes of NAIRU or its fluctuations are apart from the inflation expectations themselves also: import prices, exchange rate, prices of oil and indirect taxes.
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