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Zapewnie ciągłości działania — nowe kierunki w zarządzaniu operacyjnym i ochronie reputacji przedsiębiorstw

100%
Potocki T.
Ekonomia. Rynek, Gospodarka, Społeczeństwo
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2012
|
issue 29
34-54
EN
Today\’s enterprises are exposed to number of different systematic risks including natural disasters, frauds or information systems defects. These kind of risks may not only disturb company\’s operational activity but in extreme situations completely destroy reputation or lead to bankruptcy. Business continuity management is a process of uncertainty management, which supports restoring operational continuity and as a consequence protecting reputation. The goal of his paper is to propose BCM as an organizational tool and strategic framework within the context of reputation protection.
2
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Propozycja hybrydy reguł Hurwicza i Bayesa w podejmowaniu decyzji w warunkach niepewności

75%
Gaspars-Wieloch H.
Studia Ekonomiczne
|
2014
|
vol. 178
74-92
EN
The Hurwicz rule and the Bayes rule are classical approaches applied in the decision making under uncertainty. This situation occurs when the decision maker may choose one of several alternatives and he or she is only able to assign to each of them an interval of potential payoffs or a set of possible profits. In both cases the answer obtained depends on the state of nature (scenario) which will happen, but in the first case the set of scenarios is infinite and in the second one - it is finite. The Hurwicz measure, with the aid of the coefficient of pessimism and the coefficient of optimism, enables to find the optimal pure strategy when the decision selected is performed only once. Meanwhile the Bayes criterion is designed to indicate the optimal pure or mixed strategy when the variant chosen is performed once or many times. In the first part of the article the author analyzes the Hurwicz rule and illustrates cases when the use of this criterion leads to quite unexpected results which seem to be contradictory with the logic and do not reflect the decision maker's preferences. In the second part a proposal of an approach for optimal pure strategy searching (by means of formulas considering both the coefficients of pessimism and optimism, as well as the whole set of payoffs) is presented. This procedure (H+B rule) combines elements of the Hurwicz criterion and the Bayes criterion, but is deprived of disadvantages typical of the Hurwicz rule. The rule suggested takes into consideration both extreme payoffs and intermediate payoffs, which enables to receive rational recommendations for a larger spectrum of decision problems. The H+B rule may be applied in the decision making process under uncertainty when the number of potential scenarios and the set of possible payoffs are finite, however a slight modification of the equations proposed enables to use this procedure in problems with continuous payoffs.
3
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Spare Parts Quantity Problem Under Uncertainty – the Case of Entirely New Devices With Short Life Cycle

75%
Gaspars-Wieloch H.
Multiple Criteria Decision Making
|
2019
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vol. 14
5-28
EN
The paper presents a new scenario-based decision rule for the spare parts quantity problem (SPQP) under uncertainty with unknown objective probabilities. The goal of SPQP is to ensure the right number of extra parts at the right place at the right time. In the literature, SPQP is usually regarded as a stochastic problem since the demand for extra parts is treated as a random variable with a known distribution. The optimal stock quantity minimizes the expected loss resulting from buying a given number of parts before potential failures. The novel approach is designed for the purchase of non-repairable spare parts for entirely new seasonal devices, where the estimation of frequencies is complicated because there are no historical data about previous failures. Additionally, the decision maker’s knowledge is limited due to the nature of the problem. The new procedure is a three-criteria method. It is based on the Hurwicz and Bayes decision rules and supported with a forecasting stage enabling one to set the scenario with the greatest subjective chance of occurrence. The method takes into account the decision maker’s attitude towards risk and the asymmetry of losses connected with particular stock quantities. We assume that the future unit purchase cost of a service part bought after the breakdown is also uncertain and given as an interval parameter. The approach is designed for short life cycle machines.
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Skłonność do ubezpieczania się w warunkach niepewności w zależności od wysokości potencjalnej straty

63%
Forlicz M., Rólczyński T.
Studia Ekonomiczne
|
2018
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vol. 366
135-144
PL
Celem artykułu jest sprawdzenie, czy w warunkach niepewności skłonność do ubezpieczania się jest zależna od wysokości potencjalnej straty. W związku z powyższym celem postawiono hipotezę mówiącą, że skłonność do ubezpieczenia potencjalnej straty rośnie wraz z jej wysokością. W celu weryfikacji hipotezy przeprowadzono dwa badania eksperymentalne, każde wśród ponad 100 uczestników. Wyniki badań wskazują, że w większości przypadków badani podejmują takie same decyzje ubezpieczeniowe niezależnie od wysokości potencjalnej straty, a co za tym idzie, odsetek osób pragnących wykupić ubezpieczenie jest zbliżony dla wysokich i niskich strat.
EN
The aim of this article is to check whether under conditions of uncertainty the willingness to buy insurance policies depends on the value of potential loss. The hypothesis to be verified is that propensity to buy insurance policy increases with the value of potential loss. In order to verify the hypothesis stated two experiments were conducted, each of them among more than 100 subjects. Results show that in most cases people take the same decisions about insurance independently of the value of potential loss and consequently the percentage of people willing to buy insurance is equal for both high and small potential losses.
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Risk and Uncertainty in Construction and Investment Projects for Infrastructure Development of the City of Wroclaw in the Face of Poland's Preparations for the 2012 UEFA European Football Championship - Case Study

63%
Skorupka D., Górski M., Kuchta D.
Studia Ekonomiczne
|
2013
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vol. 137
103-139
EN
The goal of the paper was to present a case study of the preparations for the 2012 UEFA European Football Championship in Poland, and especially in Wrocław, in order to help the managers of similar multiproject undertakings in the future to manage more effectively the risk and to reduce to uncertainty linked to such projects. In the moment the paper is written, the preparations are on their way, and we already have had some difficult, but valuable experience. Several problems occurred which were threatening the success of the projects conducted in the framework of the preparations, several problems can still be expected in the basis of the experience. The problems from the past had to be solved somehow, the problems to be expected have to be managed also - all this may constitute valuable advice for similar projects in the future. To sum up the main problems that have been identified so far in the projects conducted in the framework of the preparations for the 2012 UEFA European Football Championship, we have to emphasize the legal problems. The law as it was formulated in the legal acts before the beginning of the preparations would have made them nearly impossible to be accomplished. Thus, several modifications had to be introduced. Also later the human nature which makes some people use the "holes" in legal acts for their personal advantage blocked the projects realization for a considerable period of time, which in case of projects which simply have to be finished in time, because otherwise we face a real disaster, is a very serious problem. The disputes concerned above all the land ownership and the bidding results. The long legal procedures of considering the appeals, the expropriation etc. were a real nuisance. Also it happened that a construction company which won the bidding did not accomplish what it was supposed to, thus we faced the necessity of changing a company, which made it necessary to deal with a an "empty" period where a new company had to be selected and the construction site had to be handed over. We hope that the present paper will allow other project managers to learn from the lesson our country and city has been going through at the moment and that the painful learning process we have been experiencing will be of use to someone else.
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Hierarchical Structuring for the Olive Trees Irrigation Problem in Tunisia

63%
Daoud Ben Amor W., Moalla Frikha H.
Multiple Criteria Decision Making
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2018
|
vol. 13
29-55
EN
The problem of choosing the best type of water for the irrigation of olive trees is one of the decisions that have a crucial impact on the water resource management. To solve this problem, we propose a multi-expert approach, implying several quantitative and qualitative criteria and combining the AHP method and Shannon’s entropy probability method. First, we use the AHP method to calculate all criteria weights for the various hierarchical levels as well as weights of the alternatives. Using the results obtained, we rank the types of water according to four experts. However, the data supplied by the experts are contradictory. We therefore combine these results according to the experts’ importance. We used Shannon’s entropy to determine the importance degree of each expert, to aggregate the results. The proposed approach showed that using well water was selected as the best for irrigation. Reuse of treated wastewater was classified as second, followed by desalinated brackish water and, next, by desalinated seawater.
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Analiza symulacyjna stabilności rankingów otrzymanych metodą promethee w warunkach niepewności z wykorzystaniem R

63%
Namieciński P.
Studia Ekonomiczne
|
2015
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vol. 235
169-181
PL
Preferencje decydenta określane są w metodzie PROMETHEE za pomocą wag. Dokładne określenie ich wartości nastręcza jednak znacznych trudności, przez co wprowadzany jest czynnik niepewności względem ostatecznych rankingów. W artykule tym badany jest wpływ losowych zaburzeń wag kryteriów na stabilność rankingów w zależności od struktury wyjściowej macierzy ocen porównywanych obiektów. W tym celu przeprowadzone zostały trzy eksperymenty symulacyjne przy użyciu specjalnie przygotowanego pakietu R. Wyniki badań wykazały, że im silniej skorelowane są ze sobą kryteria ocen, tym ostateczne rankingi są mniej wrażliwe na wahania wartości wag. Dodatkowo wykazano brak statystycznych zależności pomiędzy doborem obiektów a stabilnością rankingów metody PROMETHEE.
EN
The way how decision-maker’s preferences are described is the one of most important source of uncertainty in PROMETHEE method. In this paper analyzed how random disruption of weights influence on stability of complete ranking. Stochastic simulation was used. Computations was made in R. The results shows dependency between stability and structure of evaluation matrix. If criteria was more correlated each other, stability was higher. Moreover, there was no statistical evidence on dependency between stability and correlation of objects.
8
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Znaczenie niepewności w aspekcie podejmowania optymalnych decyzji polityki pieniężnej i fiskalnej

63%
Przybylska-Mazur A.
Studia Ekonomiczne
|
2017
|
vol. 324
78-90
PL
Celem artykułu jest wyznaczenie optymalnych reguł polityki pieniężnej i fiskalnej na podstawie teorii sterowania optymalnego. Wyznaczone reguły są rozwiązaniem modelu polityki gospodarczej, składającego się z funkcji kryterium oraz modelu gospodarki. W artykule zweryfikowano hipotezę, że w warunkach niepewności reakcje decydentów są mniej gwałtowne niż w sytuacji braku niepewności. Instrumentami badawczymi są rozwiązania modelu gospodarki, w którym nie uwzględniamy niepewności, a także rozwiązania modeli, w których uwzględniamy istnienie niepewności: modelu addytywnego polityki gospodarczej oraz modelu zawierającego niepewność sterowania. Na podstawie przeprowadzonej analizy empirycznej można zauważyć, że identyczne są optymalne decyzje wyznaczone na podstawie modelu, w którym nie wzięto pod uwagę niepewności i addytywnego modelu polityki gospodarczej. Zauważono wpływ na optymalne decyzje niepewności, przedstawionej w postaci multiplikatywnego składnika losowego, występującego w macierzy wpływu instrumentów polityki pieniężnej i fiskalnej na zmienne stanu.
EN
The aim of this article is the calculation of the optimal monetary and fiscal policy rule based on optimal control theory. The calculated rules are a solution of economic policy model that consists of the criterion function and model of economy. In this article we verify the hypothesis that in conditions of uncertainty the reactions of decision- -makers concerning the monetary and fiscal policy instruments are less violent than in the absence of uncertainty. Research tools to verify this hypothesis are the solutions of model in which we do not take into account the uncertainty and solutions of models in which we take into account the uncertainty: the additive economic policy model, as well as the model containing the uncertainty of control, On the basis of the empirical analysis, we can see that the optimal monetary and fiscal policy decisions are identical in the case of a model in which we do not take into account the uncertainty and in case of additive economic policy model. We can also noted the impact the multiplicative random component in the matrix of the influence of monetary and fiscal policy instruments on the optimal decisions.
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O regule decyzyjnej wspierającej wielokryterialne poszukiwanie optymalnej strategii czystej w warunkach niepewności

63%
Gaspars-Wieloch H.
Studia Ekonomiczne
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2015
|
vol. 248
42-61
PL
W pracy opisano propozycję nowego podejścia, które można wykorzystać w wielokryterialnym podejmowaniu decyzji w przypadku poszukiwania optymalnej strategii czystej w warunkach niepewności (decydent nie zna bądź nie zamierza skorzystać z informacji o prawdopodobieństwie wystąpienia poszczególnych stanów natury). Prezentowana reguła decyzyjna poprzedzona jest etapem prognostycznym, w ramach którego brane jest pod uwagę nastawienie decydenta do ryzyka (rozumianego jako możliwość uzyskania niekorzystnej wypłaty) mierzone współczynnikiem optymizmu. Etap ten służy do wyłonienia najbardziej „prawdopodobnego” (tj. odzwierciedlającego naturę decydenta) scenariusza bądź zbioru najbardziej „prawdopodobnych” scenariuszy i ma na celu zawężenie pierwotnej macierzy wypłat, na podstawie której wybierana jest najlepsza decyzja. Procedura odwołuje się do planowania scenariuszowego i do metody SF+AS (ang. Scenario Forecasting + Alternative Selection Method) przedstawionej w innym artykule i znajdującej zastosowanie w jednokryterialnych problemach decyzyjnych.
EN
The author describes a new approach which may be used in uncertain multicriteria decision making with scenario planning to searching an optimal pure strategy. The decision maker does not know the likelihood of particular scenarios. The decision rule is supported by a forecasting stage within which scenarios reflecting the decision maker’s attitude towards risk (understood as a possibility that some bad circumstances might happen) are selected. The nature of the decision maker is measured by the coefficient of optimism. Hence, the final strategy is chosen on the basis of a reduced aggregated payoff matrix. The procedure refers to SAW (Simple Additive Weighting Method) and to SF+AS method (Scenario Forecasting + Alternative Selection Method), presented in an other paper and devoted to one-criterion decision problems.
10
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A decision rule for uncertain multicriteria mixed decision making based on the coefficient of optimism

51%
Gaspars-Wieloch H.
Multiple Criteria Decision Making
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2015
|
vol. 10
32-47
EN
This paper is devoted to multicriteria decision making under uncertainty with scenario planning. This topic has been explored by many researchers since almost all real-world decision problems contain multiple conflicting criteria and a deterministic criteria evaluation is often impossible. We propose a procedure for uncertain multi-objective optimization which may be applied when a mixed strategy is sought after. A mixed strategy, as opposed to a pure strategy, allows the decision maker to select and perform a weighted combination of several accessible alternatives. The new approach takes into account the decision maker’s preference structure and attitude towards risk. This attitude is measured by the coefficient of optimism on the basis of which a set of the most probable events is suggested and an optimization problem is formulated and solved.
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