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Macroeconomic Conditions of Stock Exchange Prosperity in Selected Countries of Eastern and Central Europe

100%
Lon E.
Pieniądze i Więź
|
2005
|
vol. 8
|
issue 4(29)
131-145
EN
The article presents researching stock market prosperity in relation to the future economic activity level in selected countries of Eastern and Central Europe. The positive correlation exists. In Poland and Hungary the correlation is the strongest. The correlation between stock market prosperity and future economic activity level in Eastern and Central Europe is generally a bit lower than in the mature economies because of the smaller role played by stock market in the economy. The important role in shaping prosperity cycle of Eastern and Central European stock markets plays the USA presidential cycle. In all the countries we can observe both macroeconomic and stock market presidential effect. National budget conditions play an important role in shaping future stock market prosperity. The worse the budget condition as measured by net budget result to GNP in a given year, the higher the Stock Exchange index rate return in the following year.
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