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Prognozowanie liczby pacjentów poradni ortopedycznej

100%
Lasa U.
Zeszyty Naukowe Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego w Krakowie
|
2011
|
issue 876
71-83
EN
The paper analyses a time series of the daily number of patients visiting an orthopedics clinic. A learning set was chosen to ensure the homogeneity of series variance and three forecasting models were built. The regression model consists of the linear trend, dummy variables describing weekly and yearly seasonal components and the auto-regression of the residuals. ARIMA, with non-seasonal and seasonal differencing, contains only the components of the first order moving average. The exponential smoothing model covers the linear trend and weekly harmonic component. The residuals from all three models very closely follow normal distribution. Forecasts have been compared with actual data for a monthly test period and all models allow us to forecast the number of patients, with a mean square error of 9 people. Exponential smoothing appears to have the lowest MAPE for the test period.
2

LAW OF ONE PRICE AND THE CZECH CEREAL MARKET INTEGRATION INTO THE EU COMMON AGRICULTURAL MARKET

75%
Clark J. S., Smutka L., Čechura L., Procházka P., Maitah M.
Ekonomický časopis (Journal of Economics)
|
2015
|
vol. 63
|
issue 8
817 - 836
EN
The Czech cereal market integration into the common agricultural market (EU) is studied using monthly price data for wheat and barley in Belgium, Germany, Austria and the Czech Republic in 1993 – 2010. Stability in the law of the one price (LOP) equation is studied through multiple structural breaks within the equation. The results indicate that the integration of the Czech Republic into EU cereal markets is more unstable than that of Austria (a fourth enlargement country), although there is more empirical support for the LOP when structural breaks are taken into account. The structural change also occurred in the old EU LOP equation between Belgium and Germany.
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