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1
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Matching NBP Interest Rates to Different Versions of the Taylor Rule

100%
Grabia T.
Olsztyn Economic Journal
|
2019
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vol. 14
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issue 2
165-177
EN
The interest rate is the basic instrument of monetary policy, directly or indirectly affecting basic macroeconomic variables, such as inflation, unemployment and economic growth. The aim of the article is to compare the NBP reference rate with hypothetical rates calculated on the basis of different variants of the Taylor rule and to indicate which of those variants is best suited to the situation in Poland. The study period of 2000-2017 was adopted for the analysis. On its basis, it was found that in most cases the real interest rate of the central bank in Poland strongly coincided with rates that would have been set if one of the varieties of the Taylor rule had been in force. The best match coincided with the modified version of this rule, which was created after the economic crisis. That means that the NBP took into account both the deviations of inflation from the target and the GDP gap when making decisions regarding interest rates.
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Reguła Taylora i jej rozszerzenia

100%
Baranowski P.
Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics
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2008
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vol. 225
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issue 7-8
1-23
EN
The paper discusses the key aspects of research on a modern monetary policy rule proposed by American economist John B. Taylor in 1993. The Taylor rule stipulates how much the central bank should change the nominal interest rate in response to divergences of actual GDP from potential GDP and divergences of actual rates of inflation from a target rate of inflation. The rule recommends a relatively high interest rate (a "tight" monetary policy) when inflation is above its target or when the economy is above its full employment level, and a relatively low interest rate ("easy" monetary policy) in the opposite situations. Baranowski discusses many aspects of the Taylor rule, including the type of interest rates subject to analysis; the need to use real-time data; additional variables that may influence interest rates; the method of measuring variables; and the stability of the analyzed parameters. The paper also shows how the Taylor rule is used in practice. The rule can be used to analyze monetary policy, make international comparisons, and forecast interest rates. It can be an important component of both theoretical and empirical economic models, the author says.
3
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Zmiany w czasie reguły Taylora a polityka pieniężna w Polsce

100%
Baranowski P., Sztaudynger J. J.
Econometrics. Ekonometria. Advances in Applied Data Analytics
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2016
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issue 3 (53)
9-20
EN
The goal of the paper was to verify the stability of Taylor rule parameters. The empirical analysis was performed for Poland; using 1996-2016 monthly data. More specifically, we verify two hyphotheses: (1) the behaviour of interest rate can be described using Taylor rule; (2) the Taylor rule with parameters subject to Markov switching performs better than the one with constant parameters. We take a system approach, where a Taylor rule is a part of small scale DSGE model. The bayesian inference is used to estimate the model and compare the specifications. The results indicate that models with switching parameters are better in terms of marginal data density. The best model is based on forward looking Taylor rule, where the parameters expressing the magnitude of the reaction to inflation and output gap were subject to Markov switching, while interest rate smoothing was constant. The identified regime switching can be interpreted as not responsing for inflation below the tar-get (opportunistic disinflation declared for 2001-2002 by Polish monetary authorities) or not responding to inflation driven mostly by EU accression (2004-2005) or increased VAT (2004-2005, 2011).
4
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THE FORECASTS-BASED INSTRUMENT RULE AND DECISION MAKING. HOW CLOSELY INTERLINKED? THE CASE OF SWEDEN

100%
Tura-Gawron K.
Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy
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2017
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vol. 12
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issue 2
295-315
EN
Research background: The Central Bank of Sweden declared in years 1999–2006 the implementation of the Svensson’s concept of inflation forecast targeting (IFT). It means that the repo rate decision-making process depends on the inflation fore-casts. The concept evolved from the strict IFT with the decision-making algorithm called ‘the rule of thumb’ to the flexible IFT. Purpose of the article: The aim of the article is to: (1) analyze the influence of the inflation rate and GDP growth rate on the repo rate decisions, (2) analyze the influence of the inflation rate and GDP growth rate forecasts (in two year horizon) on the repo rate decisions in Sweden in years 1999–2006. Methods: The analysis encompasses the repo rates decisions, CPI inflation rate, GDP growth rate, central paths of CPI inflation forecasts and central paths of GDP growth rate forecasts (the mode values) in the two years horizon published by The Central Bank of Sweden in years 1999–2006. The studies are based on the Taylor-type instrument rule and forecast-based Taylor-type instrument rule. The methodology used is multiple linear regression models. Findings & Value added: The Central Bank of Sweden in years 1999–2006 implemented direct inflation forecast targeting (DIFT) rule. The decision-making algorithm was based on the CPI inflation forecasts and the rule of the thumb algorithm. The exact rule of the thumb was as follow: if the inflation forecast, in the two year forecast’s horizon exceeded the infla-tion target by 1 p.p., then the central bank raised the repo rate by 0.4 p.p; if it was below it, then the central bank reduced the repo rate by 0.4 p.p. If the inflation forecast was equal to the inflation target, then the repo rate remained unchanged. The historical repo rates differ from the theoretical estimated rule of the thumb’s repo rates by +/-0.28 p.p.
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Polityka pieniężna w strefie euro: dawne obawy, nowe wyzwania

88%
Wojtyna A.
Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics
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2008
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vol. 228
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issue 11-12
1-20
EN
The paper addresses some important dilemmas and factors determining the monetary policy of the European Central Bank (ECB). According to the author, in the coming years the ECB’s monetary policy will to a large extent depend on how the ongoing financial crisis affects Europe and the world at large. At this point, it is too early to offer an evaluation of how this policy may change, Wojtyna says. The article attempts to answer a number of questions related to the ECB’s monetary policy. One question is whether or not an evaluation of the effects of the bank’s policy should take into account some general institutional frameworks. Second, did the ECB do the right thing adopting a specific strategy for its monetary policy? Third, to what extent has the Taylor rule proved to be useful in the assessment of the restrictiveness of the ECB’s monetary policy? The Taylor rule, proposed by U.S. economist John B. Taylor in 1993, is a rule that stipulates how much the central bank should change the nominal interest rate in response to divergences of actual GDP from potential GDP and of actual inflation rates from target inflation rates. According to Wojtyna, the effects of the ECB’s policy should be clearly differentiated from the effects of the Economic and Monetary Union as a whole. Second, the notion of “ECB policy” is broader than the term “monetary policy” with regard to the European Central Bank, the author says. Third, it is necessary to draw a distinction between various types of monetary policy depending on their scope, Wojtyna notes. The paper also discusses the latest research on the institutional environment of monetary policy and focuses on selected disputed issues involving the monetary policy strategy adopted by the ECB.
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Interest Rate Policy Of Selected Central Banks In Central And Eastern Europe

75%
GRABIA T.
Comparative Economic Research. Central and Eastern Europe
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2015
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vol. 18
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issue 1
25-41
EN
The aim of this article is to present and evaluate interest rate policies of three selected central banks in Central and Eastern Europe (Poland, the Czech Republic, and Hungary) from 2001 to 2013. The study consists of an introduction (Section 1) and three main parts. The introduction contains a theoretical description of the role of interest rate policy, the dilemmas connected with it, as well as an analysis of the strategies and goals of monetary policies of the National Bank of Poland (NBP), the Czech National Bank (CzNB), and the National Bank of Hungary (NBH) in the context of existing legal and institutional conditions. In turn, the first empirical part (Section 2) examines how the analysed central banks responded to changes in inflation, unemployment, and economic growth rates. The tools of the analysis are the nominal and real interest rates of those banks. The subsequent research part (Section 3) attempts to evaluate the degree of the contractionary nature of interest rate policies in specific countries in the context of the Taylor rule. The text ends with a summary (Section 4) encompassing concise conclusions drawn from the earlier analyses.
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Can the Taylor rule be a good tool to analyse the monetary policy quality at the time of recent market turbulences ?

63%
Bednarczyk J. L.
Central European Review of Economics & Finance
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2016
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issue Vol. 16, No 6
5-16
EN
Article deals with the problems of application of the Taylor rule as a practical rule, facilitating monetary authorities` decision making in the years following financial crisis 2007+. Author comes to the conclusion, that the Taylor rule seems to be a poor tool to articulate postulates for central bank`s monetary policy and even for an ex post assessment of this policy. He proposes to substitute Non-decreasing economic growth rate of inflation (NDEGRI) for the Taylor rule as an indicator of the correctness of authorities actions.(original abstract)
8
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The Macroeconomic Effects of the Taylor Rule Deviations in Central and Eastern European Countries

63%
Shevchuk V.
Prace Naukowe Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego we Wrocławiu
|
2002
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vol. 67
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issue 4
132-142
PL
Wykorzystując dane kwartalne z lat 2002-2021, standardową regułę Taylora oszacowano dla czterech krajów Europy Środkowej i Wschodniej (Czech, Węgier, Polski i Rumunii). Posługując się modelem SVAR, otrzymano, że we wszystkich krajach EŚW zaniżony poziom stopy procentowej banku centralnego względem stopy na podstawie reguły Taylora jest spowodowany przez lukę dochodu oraz inflację. Jednocześnie odchylenia od reguły Taylora mają zróżnicowany wpływ na inne zmienne endogeniczne. Ponadto stwierdzono, że deprecjacja kursu walutowego przeważnie powoduje cykliczny spadek dochodu oraz przyspieszenie inflacji, cykliczny boom jest inflacyjny (z wyjątkiem Rumunii), a także wskazano, jak efekty inflacyjne względem dochodu różnią się w przekroju poszczególnych krajów EŚW.
EN
A standard Taylor rule was estimated for several Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries (Czechia, Hungary, Poland, Romania) based on quarterly data over the 2002-2021 period. The SVAR model indicates, for all CEE countries, that the level of central bank policy rate below the Taylor rule implied rate is caused by both output gap and inflation, with the Taylor rule deviations having heterogeneous effects on other endogenous variables. Among other results, the depreciation of the exchange rate is contractionary and inflationary, the output gap is inflationary (except for Romania), while inflationary effects on output are different across the CEE countries.
9

Stabilność finansowa a polityka pieniężna po globalnym kryzysie finansowym

63%
Kurowski Ł.
Ekonomista
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2019
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issue 4
414-431
PL
Chociaż troska banku centralnego o stabilność finansową jest zasadna, to kwestią otwartą pozostaje stosowanie instrumentów polityki pieniężnej w celu ograniczania skali nierównowag finansowych. Celem artykułu jest sprawdzenie, czy po globalnym kryzysie finansowym banki centralne używają stóp procentowych jako narzędzia makroostrożnościowego, tj. służącego stabilizacji cyklu kredytowego. W tym celu rozszerzono funkcję reakcji (tzw. regułę Taylora) o lukę kredytową (mierzoną wskaźnikiem kredyt/PKB) i estymowano ją dla 10 krajów na danych kwartalnych z okresu 1999-2017. Porównanie istotności parametrów funkcji w dwóch okresach (przed i po globalnym kryzysie finansowym) potwierdza, że banki centralne po globalnym kryzysie finansowym w większym stopniu zwracają uwagę na bieżącą fazę cyklu kredytowego przy ustalaniu stóp procentowych. Wyniki badania wskazują zasadność włączenia tej zmiennej finansowej do modeli odzwierciedlających nastawienie polityki pieniężnej (obok odchylenia inflacji od celu oraz luki popytowej).
EN
Central bank's involvement in financial stability is no longer questioned. Yet doubts arise when monetary policy instruments are used to reduce financial imbalances. The purpose of the article is to verify whether, after the global financial crisis, central banks use interest rates as a macroprudential instrument. In order to do this, the author extends central bank's reaction function by including a credit-to-GDP gap and estimates this function using quarterly data for 10 countries in the period between 1999 and 2017. Comparison of the significance of Taylor rule parameters between two periods (before and after the global financial crisis) confirms that after the global financial crisis central banks pay more attention to the phase of the credit cycle when setting interest rates. The results of the study suggest the reasonability of including the financial variable in models reflecting the monetary policy stance (apart from the deviation of inflation from the target and the output gap).
10
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Reakcja polityki pieniężnej na wydarzenia giełdowe

63%
Goczek Ł., Partyka K.
Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics
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2016
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vol. 285
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issue 5
27-50
EN
The aim of the article is to analyze how the monetary policy of the National Bank of Poland responds to developments on the stock market. The empirical study uses the theoretical framework of the so-called Taylor Rule to determine whether changes in monetary policy in Poland show signs of counteracting stock market fluctuations not related to the stabilization of inflation and the output gap. In the study, a series of Bayesian averaged vector error correction models (VECM) were estimated using monthly data for the years 2001–2015. The obtained results make it possible to argue that monetary policy reacts to significant spikes on the stock market to cushion their impact on the economy. Thus, the policy aims to have a stabilizing effect on capital markets.
PL
Celem artykułu jest analiza reakcji polityki pieniężnej Narodowego Banku Polskiego na wydarzenia giełdowe. W badaniu empirycznym wykorzystano ramy teoretyczne reguły Taylora w celu ustalenia czy zmiany polityki monetarnej w Polsce wykazują oznaki przeciwdziałania fluktuacjom giełdowym niewynikającym ze stabilizacji inflacji i luki popytowej. W trakcie badań oszacowano serię bayesowsko uśrednianych modeli wektorowej korekty błędem (VECM) przy użyciu danych miesięcznych dla lat 2001–2015. Uzyskane wyniki pozwalają argumentować, że polityka pieniężna istotnie reaguje na wzrosty na rynku giełdowym w celu amortyzacji ich wpływu na gospodarkę. Efekt ten zaobserwowano zarówno dla nominalnych, jak i realnych stóp procentowych. Tym samym polityka Narodowego Banku Polskiego ma empirycznie obserwowalny charakter opierania się wiatrowi.
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Are Central Banks In CEE Countries Concerned About The Burden Of Public Debt?

51%
Mackiewicz-Łyziak J.
Comparative Economic Research. Central and Eastern Europe
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2017
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vol. 20
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issue 1
35-51
PL
Celem badania jest analiza reguł polityki pieniężnej w Czechach, Polsce i na Węgrzech, z długiem jako dodatkową zmienną objaśniającą. Estymowana jest liniowa reguła przy użyciu Uogólnionej Metody Momentów oraz reguła nieliniowa przy użyciu modelu przełącznikowego Markova. Wyniki badania sugerują, że w Czechach i Polsce władze monetarne reagowały na rosnący dług obniżaniem stóp procentowych, podczas gdy na Węgrzech reakcja była odwrotna. Ponadto, wyróżniamy pasywny i aktywny reżim polityki pieniężnej, przy czym reżim aktywny charakteryzuje się niższym stopniem wygładzania stóp procentowych i silniejszą reakcją banku centralnego na inflację i/lub lukę produktową. W reżimie pasywnym luka produktowa okazuje się być statystycznie nieistotna.
EN
The aim of this study is to analyze the monetary policy rules in the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland, with public debt as an additional explanatory variable. We estimate linear rules by the GMM estimation and non-linear rules, using the Markov-switching model. Our findings suggest that in the Czech Republic and Poland the monetary authorities respond to growing public debt by lowering interest rates, while in Hungary the opposite may be observed. Moreover, we distinguish between passive and active monetary policy regimes and find that the degree of interest rate smoothing is lower and the response of the central banks to inflation and/or output gap is stronger in an active regime. In the passive regime, the output gap seems to be statistically insignificant.
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