Search results

1

Management in the Time of "Generalized Uncertainty" the Question of Revelvance

100%

Koźmiński A. K.

Management and Business Administration. Central Europe

|

2015

|

issue 4

2-10

EN

Uncertainty is a state of mind. Around 1930 at the beginning of the big depression crisis, Keynes predicted that during the next 100 years, the standard of living in the most advanced countries will increase from four to eightfold. In spite of World War II, this overly optimistic prediction (as it seemed at that time) was confirmed in the 80 years since Keynes’s prophecy. In spite of the big crisis of the 1930s and the devastation of World War II, the standard of living in the western world increased four to fivefold.

2

The problem of uncertainty and risk as a subject of research of the Nobel Prize Laureates in Economic Sciences

51%

Bąk S.

Journal of Economics and Management

|

2020

|

vol. 39

21-40

XX

Aim/purpose – The main aim of the present paper is to identify the problem of uncertainty and risk in research carried out by the Nobel Prize Laureates in Economic Sciences and its analysis by disciplines/sub-disciplines represented by the awarded researchers. Design/methodology/approach – The paper rests on the literature analysis, mostly analysis of research achievements of the Nobel Prize Laureates in Economic Sciences. Findings – Studies have determined that research on uncertainty and risk is carried out in many disciplines and sub-disciplines of economic sciences. In addition, it has been established that a number of researchers among the Nobel Prize laureates in the field of economic sciences, take into account the issues of uncertainty and risk. The analysis showed that researchers selected from the Nobel Prize laureates have made a significant contribution to raising awareness of the importance of uncertainty and risk in many areas of the functioning of individuals, enterprises and national economies. Research implications/limitations – Research analysis was based on a selected group of scientific research – Laureates of the Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences. However, thus confirmed ground-breaking and momentous nature of the research findings of this group of authors justifies the selective choice of the analysed research material. Originality/value/contribution – The paper includes a selection of research achievements in uncertainty and risk of the Nobel Prize Winners in Economic Sciences previously not presented in scientific papers.

3

Problems connected with measuring risks of foreign direct investments

51%

Kozłowska M.

Journal of Economics and Management

|

2015

|

vol. 20

93-105

EN

Any human activity, including the economic one, is carried out under the conditions of uncertainty, which arises from the complexity of reality. Uncertainty is closely related to risk. The concepts of uncertainty and risk, and thus the relations between them are not defined in the same way. The literature gives different criteria for the classification of the investment risk. With respect to the FDI, a risk can be divided into a general risk, associated with investing, and a special risk, arising from the location of investments outside the country of the investor’s origin. The special risk is usually divided into political (considered crucial) and economic, and both these groups of risks are microeconomic and macroeconomic. A multitude types of investment risks and their globalization make it difficult to identify all their sources and their assessment, which makes the decision about investing not an easy task. Additionally, a number of important determinants of management is difficult to calculate or irrational, which further complicates the decision-making process.

4

Ensuring the flexibility and continuity of supplies in the B2B market

44%

Wieteska G.

Journal of Economics and Management

|

2017

|

vol. 29

118-138

EN

Aim/purpose – The purpose of this paper is to recognize and compare the best practices that ensure the flexibility and continuity of supplies. Although the flexibility drivers and continuity risk drivers, according to the literature, are actually the same, there is a lack of research articles on this aspect. Design/methodology/approach – A two-phase methodology design, based on the literature review and in-depth interviews, was used, and seven in-depth interviews with the representatives of manufacturing companies that operate in different sectors were conducted. Findings – Supply flexibility and continuity are presented in the literature, mainly as the responses to the business environmental events/changes that have already occurred. Nevertheless, the researched manufacturing companies recognize their use in terms of prevention as well. The researched enterprises use traditional ways of dealing with supply problems (alternative supplier, inventory buffers). They do not really connect ensuring supply continuity with long-term disruptions, but rather understand it as prevention of typical supply delays and quality problems. The respondents regard supplier flexibility not only as a way of responding to the forecasted demand changes but also to unexpected situations. The companies ensure supply continuity and supply flexibility using similar but not exactly the same strategies. For the reactive strategies, sourcing decisions are crucial, whereas for preventive strategies – it is supplier performance management. Research implications/limitations – The small number of conducted interviews is a limitation of performed research, however, some directions for future research can be noted. Apart from other implications described in the paper, it is deduced that sourcing flexibility positively influences supply continuity. Nevertheless, this hypothesis needs quantitative verification. Originality/value/contribution – The paper compares the issue of supply flexibility with the issue of supply continuity. For these two areas, it identifies common and individual strategies that are performed by researched companies in terms of prevention and reaction to risk and uncertainty.

5

Propozycja hybrydy reguł Hurwicza i Bayesa w podejmowaniu decyzji w warunkach niepewności

38%

Gaspars-Wieloch H.

Studia Ekonomiczne

|

2014

|

vol. 178

74-92

EN

The Hurwicz rule and the Bayes rule are classical approaches applied in the decision making under uncertainty. This situation occurs when the decision maker may choose one of several alternatives and he or she is only able to assign to each of them an interval of potential payoffs or a set of possible profits. In both cases the answer obtained depends on the state of nature (scenario) which will happen, but in the first case the set of scenarios is infinite and in the second one - it is finite. The Hurwicz measure, with the aid of the coefficient of pessimism and the coefficient of optimism, enables to find the optimal pure strategy when the decision selected is performed only once. Meanwhile the Bayes criterion is designed to indicate the optimal pure or mixed strategy when the variant chosen is performed once or many times. In the first part of the article the author analyzes the Hurwicz rule and illustrates cases when the use of this criterion leads to quite unexpected results which seem to be contradictory with the logic and do not reflect the decision maker's preferences. In the second part a proposal of an approach for optimal pure strategy searching (by means of formulas considering both the coefficients of pessimism and optimism, as well as the whole set of payoffs) is presented. This procedure (H+B rule) combines elements of the Hurwicz criterion and the Bayes criterion, but is deprived of disadvantages typical of the Hurwicz rule. The rule suggested takes into consideration both extreme payoffs and intermediate payoffs, which enables to receive rational recommendations for a larger spectrum of decision problems. The H+B rule may be applied in the decision making process under uncertainty when the number of potential scenarios and the set of possible payoffs are finite, however a slight modification of the equations proposed enables to use this procedure in problems with continuous payoffs.

6

Spare Parts Quantity Problem Under Uncertainty – the Case of Entirely New Devices With Short Life Cycle

38%

Gaspars-Wieloch H.

Multiple Criteria Decision Making

|

2019

|

vol. 14

5-28

EN

The paper presents a new scenario-based decision rule for the spare parts quantity problem (SPQP) under uncertainty with unknown objective probabilities. The goal of SPQP is to ensure the right number of extra parts at the right place at the right time. In the literature, SPQP is usually regarded as a stochastic problem since the demand for extra parts is treated as a random variable with a known distribution. The optimal stock quantity minimizes the expected loss resulting from buying a given number of parts before potential failures. The novel approach is designed for the purchase of non-repairable spare parts for entirely new seasonal devices, where the estimation of frequencies is complicated because there are no historical data about previous failures. Additionally, the decision maker’s knowledge is limited due to the nature of the problem. The new procedure is a three-criteria method. It is based on the Hurwicz and Bayes decision rules and supported with a forecasting stage enabling one to set the scenario with the greatest subjective chance of occurrence. The method takes into account the decision maker’s attitude towards risk and the asymmetry of losses connected with particular stock quantities. We assume that the future unit purchase cost of a service part bought after the breakdown is also uncertain and given as an interval parameter. The approach is designed for short life cycle machines.

7

IDEAS in AGORA: Decision-Making Risk: The Difference Between Risk And Uncertainity In Economic Activities

38%

Vasilcovschi N., Munteanu G.

Human and Social Studies

|

2014

|

vol. 3

|

issue 2

34-46

EN

Economic activities are always supposed to carry with them the risk of market. Our area of research is concerned with what is known as the model of risk decisions at the level of economic activity; a model that can be valuable at any point of economic development. In our research, we present important aspects of risk in taking decisions in the previous and current dynamics of the market. The conditions of taking decisions with potential risks provide decision-makers with the possibility to analyze and calculate risk in order to know what can be gained and lost. In our paper, we present a short description of a different model of risk in economic activity and of decision-making risk, providing examples that have been offered by various authors. For example, Friedman and Savage present the utility function of an economic agent and its availability to accept the risk, while Markowitz defines utility in terms of winning or losing. Our paper starts with a presentation of the quantification of risk in economic activity. In the second part, we present a model of decision-making risk that is applied in economic activities and the difference between risk and uncertainty.

8

Skłonność do ubezpieczania się w warunkach niepewności w zależności od wysokości potencjalnej straty

32%

Forlicz M., Rólczyński T.

Studia Ekonomiczne

|

2018

|

vol. 366

135-144

PL

Celem artykułu jest sprawdzenie, czy w warunkach niepewności skłonność do ubezpieczania się jest zależna od wysokości potencjalnej straty. W związku z powyższym celem postawiono hipotezę mówiącą, że skłonność do ubezpieczenia potencjalnej straty rośnie wraz z jej wysokością. W celu weryfikacji hipotezy przeprowadzono dwa badania eksperymentalne, każde wśród ponad 100 uczestników. Wyniki badań wskazują, że w większości przypadków badani podejmują takie same decyzje ubezpieczeniowe niezależnie od wysokości potencjalnej straty, a co za tym idzie, odsetek osób pragnących wykupić ubezpieczenie jest zbliżony dla wysokich i niskich strat.

EN

The aim of this article is to check whether under conditions of uncertainty the willingness to buy insurance policies depends on the value of potential loss. The hypothesis to be verified is that propensity to buy insurance policy increases with the value of potential loss. In order to verify the hypothesis stated two experiments were conducted, each of them among more than 100 subjects. Results show that in most cases people take the same decisions about insurance independently of the value of potential loss and consequently the percentage of people willing to buy insurance is equal for both high and small potential losses.

9

Risk and Uncertainty in Construction and Investment Projects for Infrastructure Development of the City of Wroclaw in the Face of Poland's Preparations for the 2012 UEFA European Football Championship - Case Study

32%

Skorupka D., Górski M., Kuchta D.

Studia Ekonomiczne

|

2013

|

vol. 137

103-139

EN

The goal of the paper was to present a case study of the preparations for the 2012 UEFA European Football Championship in Poland, and especially in Wrocław, in order to help the managers of similar multiproject undertakings in the future to manage more effectively the risk and to reduce to uncertainty linked to such projects. In the moment the paper is written, the preparations are on their way, and we already have had some difficult, but valuable experience. Several problems occurred which were threatening the success of the projects conducted in the framework of the preparations, several problems can still be expected in the basis of the experience. The problems from the past had to be solved somehow, the problems to be expected have to be managed also - all this may constitute valuable advice for similar projects in the future. To sum up the main problems that have been identified so far in the projects conducted in the framework of the preparations for the 2012 UEFA European Football Championship, we have to emphasize the legal problems. The law as it was formulated in the legal acts before the beginning of the preparations would have made them nearly impossible to be accomplished. Thus, several modifications had to be introduced. Also later the human nature which makes some people use the "holes" in legal acts for their personal advantage blocked the projects realization for a considerable period of time, which in case of projects which simply have to be finished in time, because otherwise we face a real disaster, is a very serious problem. The disputes concerned above all the land ownership and the bidding results. The long legal procedures of considering the appeals, the expropriation etc. were a real nuisance. Also it happened that a construction company which won the bidding did not accomplish what it was supposed to, thus we faced the necessity of changing a company, which made it necessary to deal with a an "empty" period where a new company had to be selected and the construction site had to be handed over. We hope that the present paper will allow other project managers to learn from the lesson our country and city has been going through at the moment and that the painful learning process we have been experiencing will be of use to someone else.

10

Reformy państwa opiekuńczego i wytwarzanie niepewności

32%

Poławski P.

Polityka Społeczna

|

2014

|

vol. 41

|

issue 5-6(482-483) POLSKA W CZASACH NIEPEWNOŚCI

9-13

EN

The text shows how managerialism related to various paradoxes and inconsistencies of the welfare state reforms interfere with new areas of uncertainty. The reforms have not solved the problems that affect the welfare state for nearly half a century, nor they increased social security and stability of welfare institutions. What’s more – the state itself creates areas of of uncertainty, contributing to the strengthening of existing inequalities and social divisions. The situation in Poland does not differ in this respect from the general trends. The text is a review and refers to the U. Beck concept of “Manufactured uncertainties”.

PL

Przedmiotem tekstu jest związek menedżerializmu, paradoksów i niespójności reform państwa opiekuńczego z pojawianiem się nowych obszarów niepewności. Problem w tym, że reformy niekoniecznie rozwiązały problemy nękające państwo opiekuńcze od niemal półwiecza, niekoniecznie także zwiększyły poziom bezpieczeństwa i pewność działania instytucji. Podstawowa myśli artykułu jest taka, że wycofywanie się państwa z gwarancji socjalnych przyczynia się do destabilizacji mechanizmów zarządzania ryzykami socjalnymi. Tekst ma charakter przeglądowy i odwołuje się do koncepcji „wytworzonych niepewności” U. Becka.

11

Znaczenie niepewności w aspekcie podejmowania optymalnych decyzji polityki pieniężnej i fiskalnej

32%

Przybylska-Mazur A.

Studia Ekonomiczne

|

2017

|

vol. 324

78-90

PL

Celem artykułu jest wyznaczenie optymalnych reguł polityki pieniężnej i fiskalnej na podstawie teorii sterowania optymalnego. Wyznaczone reguły są rozwiązaniem modelu polityki gospodarczej, składającego się z funkcji kryterium oraz modelu gospodarki. W artykule zweryfikowano hipotezę, że w warunkach niepewności reakcje decydentów są mniej gwałtowne niż w sytuacji braku niepewności. Instrumentami badawczymi są rozwiązania modelu gospodarki, w którym nie uwzględniamy niepewności, a także rozwiązania modeli, w których uwzględniamy istnienie niepewności: modelu addytywnego polityki gospodarczej oraz modelu zawierającego niepewność sterowania. Na podstawie przeprowadzonej analizy empirycznej można zauważyć, że identyczne są optymalne decyzje wyznaczone na podstawie modelu, w którym nie wzięto pod uwagę niepewności i addytywnego modelu polityki gospodarczej. Zauważono wpływ na optymalne decyzje niepewności, przedstawionej w postaci multiplikatywnego składnika losowego, występującego w macierzy wpływu instrumentów polityki pieniężnej i fiskalnej na zmienne stanu.

EN

The aim of this article is the calculation of the optimal monetary and fiscal policy rule based on optimal control theory. The calculated rules are a solution of economic policy model that consists of the criterion function and model of economy. In this article we verify the hypothesis that in conditions of uncertainty the reactions of decision- -makers concerning the monetary and fiscal policy instruments are less violent than in the absence of uncertainty. Research tools to verify this hypothesis are the solutions of model in which we do not take into account the uncertainty and solutions of models in which we take into account the uncertainty: the additive economic policy model, as well as the model containing the uncertainty of control, On the basis of the empirical analysis, we can see that the optimal monetary and fiscal policy decisions are identical in the case of a model in which we do not take into account the uncertainty and in case of additive economic policy model. We can also noted the impact the multiplicative random component in the matrix of the influence of monetary and fiscal policy instruments on the optimal decisions.

12

O regule decyzyjnej wspierającej wielokryterialne poszukiwanie optymalnej strategii czystej w warunkach niepewności

32%

Gaspars-Wieloch H.

Studia Ekonomiczne

|

2015

|

vol. 248

42-61

PL

W pracy opisano propozycję nowego podejścia, które można wykorzystać w wielokryterialnym podejmowaniu decyzji w przypadku poszukiwania optymalnej strategii czystej w warunkach niepewności (decydent nie zna bądź nie zamierza skorzystać z informacji o prawdopodobieństwie wystąpienia poszczególnych stanów natury). Prezentowana reguła decyzyjna poprzedzona jest etapem prognostycznym, w ramach którego brane jest pod uwagę nastawienie decydenta do ryzyka (rozumianego jako możliwość uzyskania niekorzystnej wypłaty) mierzone współczynnikiem optymizmu. Etap ten służy do wyłonienia najbardziej „prawdopodobnego” (tj. odzwierciedlającego naturę decydenta) scenariusza bądź zbioru najbardziej „prawdopodobnych” scenariuszy i ma na celu zawężenie pierwotnej macierzy wypłat, na podstawie której wybierana jest najlepsza decyzja. Procedura odwołuje się do planowania scenariuszowego i do metody SF+AS (ang. Scenario Forecasting + Alternative Selection Method) przedstawionej w innym artykule i znajdującej zastosowanie w jednokryterialnych problemach decyzyjnych.

EN

The author describes a new approach which may be used in uncertain multicriteria decision making with scenario planning to searching an optimal pure strategy. The decision maker does not know the likelihood of particular scenarios. The decision rule is supported by a forecasting stage within which scenarios reflecting the decision maker’s attitude towards risk (understood as a possibility that some bad circumstances might happen) are selected. The nature of the decision maker is measured by the coefficient of optimism. Hence, the final strategy is chosen on the basis of a reduced aggregated payoff matrix. The procedure refers to SAW (Simple Additive Weighting Method) and to SF+AS method (Scenario Forecasting + Alternative Selection Method), presented in an other paper and devoted to one-criterion decision problems.

13

A decision rule for uncertain multicriteria mixed decision making based on the coefficient of optimism

26%

Gaspars-Wieloch H.

Multiple Criteria Decision Making

|

2015

|

vol. 10

32-47

EN

This paper is devoted to multicriteria decision making under uncertainty with scenario planning. This topic has been explored by many researchers since almost all real-world decision problems contain multiple conflicting criteria and a deterministic criteria evaluation is often impossible. We propose a procedure for uncertain multi-objective optimization which may be applied when a mixed strategy is sought after. A mixed strategy, as opposed to a pure strategy, allows the decision maker to select and perform a weighted combination of several accessible alternatives. The new approach takes into account the decision maker’s preference structure and attitude towards risk. This attitude is measured by the coefficient of optimism on the basis of which a set of the most probable events is suggested and an optimization problem is formulated and solved.

Refine search results

Management in the Time of "Generalized Uncertainty" the Question of Revelvance

The problem of uncertainty and risk as a subject of research of the Nobel Prize Laureates in Economic Sciences

Problems connected with measuring risks of foreign direct investments

Ensuring the flexibility and continuity of supplies in the B2B market

Propozycja hybrydy reguł Hurwicza i Bayesa w podejmowaniu decyzji w warunkach niepewności

Spare Parts Quantity Problem Under Uncertainty – the Case of Entirely New Devices With Short Life Cycle

IDEAS in AGORA: Decision-Making Risk: The Difference Between Risk And Uncertainity In Economic Activities

Skłonność do ubezpieczania się w warunkach niepewności w zależności od wysokości potencjalnej straty

Risk and Uncertainty in Construction and Investment Projects for Infrastructure Development of the City of Wroclaw in the Face of Poland's Preparations for the 2012 UEFA European Football Championship - Case Study

Reformy państwa opiekuńczego i wytwarzanie niepewności

Znaczenie niepewności w aspekcie podejmowania optymalnych decyzji polityki pieniężnej i fiskalnej

O regule decyzyjnej wspierającej wielokryterialne poszukiwanie optymalnej strategii czystej w warunkach niepewności

A decision rule for uncertain multicriteria mixed decision making based on the coefficient of optimism