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Factores de mediano y largo plazo para el análisis del proceso electoral de 2014 en Uruguay

100%

Buquet D., Piñeiro R.

Anuario Latinoamericano – Ciencias Políticas y Relaciones Internacionales

2015

vol. 2

This article analyzes the 2014 Uruguayan electoral process, based on the medium and long-term patterns of continuity and change observed in the Uruguayan party system. In the first place, the evolution of the party system in the last 40 years is discussed. This perspective allows to understand the changes and continuities in the distribution of votes among the parties, regarding the 2009 elections. Moreover, it explains which parameters can be associated with the little variations that the October 2014 elections have shown, in comparison to what occurred five years earlier. In the second place, primary party elections are examined in order to analyze the levels of electoral turnout and the difficulties to extrapolate these results to the national election, both between and within parties. Finally, the article explores the institutional factors that determine the characteristics of the legislative supply of the main internal fractions of parties.

Este artículo analiza el proceso electoral uruguayo de 2014 a partir de las pautas de continuidad y cambio – de mediano y largo plazo – que se observan en el sistema de partidos uruguayo. En primer lugar, se discute la evolución del sistema de partidos en los últimos 40 años. Desde esta perspectiva se puede entender dentro de qué márgenes se producen los cambios y continuidades en la distribución de votos entre los partidos respecto a las elecciones de 2009 y a qué parámetros se pueden asociar las variaciones mínimas de la elección de octubre de 2014 respecto a lo que ocurrió cinco años antes. En segundo lugar, se examinan las elecciones internas de los partidos, se analizan los niveles de participación electoral y las dificultades de extrapolación de esos resultados hacia la elección nacional, tanto entre como dentro de los partidos. Por último, se indaga en los factores institucionales que determinan las características de la oferta legislativa de las principales fracciones internas de los partidos.

Is Uruguay More Resilient This Time? Distributional Impacts of a Crisis Similar to the 2001–02 Argentine Crisis

94%

Cabanillas O. B., Lugo M. A., Rodríguez-Castelan C., Nielsen H.

Journal of Banking and Financial Economics

2015

issue 2(4)

64-90

The 2001–02 Argentine crisis had a profound impact on Uruguay’s economy. Uruguay’s gross domestic product shrank by 17.5 percent, and the proportion of people living below the poverty line doubled in only two years. It took almost 10 years for the poverty rate to recover to its precrisis level. This paper uses a macro-micro simulation technique to simulate the impact of a similar crisis on the current Uruguayan economy. The simulation exercise suggests that Uruguay would now be in a better place to weather such a severe crisis. The impact on poverty would be considerably more moderate; inequality would not change significantly; and household incomes would be 8 percent lower than in the absence of a crisis (almost 9 percent lower among households in the bottom 40 percent of the income distribution). The paper also explores the changes in social welfare policy that took place in the last decade that are protecting vulnerable groups from new macroeconomic shocks. We find that, despite the new policies, young individuals, woman-headed households, residents of Montevideo, and people who have not completed secondary education are more vulnerable to falling into poverty were the crisis to strike.

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1 Anuario Latinoamericano – Ciencias Políticas y Relaciones Internacionales

1 Journal of Banking and Financial Economics

1 Buquet D.

1 Cabanillas O. B.

1 Lugo M. A.

1 Nielsen H.

1 Piñeiro R.

1 Rodríguez-Castelan C.

2 2015

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Factores de mediano y largo plazo para el análisis del proceso electoral de 2014 en Uruguay

Is Uruguay More Resilient This Time? Distributional Impacts of a Crisis Similar to the 2001–02 Argentine Crisis