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EN
Hysteresis effect on unemployment is a much discussed topic in macroeconomics. However, empirical findings regarding the existence of hysteresis effect are contradictory. The present study investigates hysteresis in the unemployment rates of the Visegrad Group countries, namely: the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia. For this purpose it employs the following three econometric methods: (1) the linear unit root tests; (2) the Seemingly Unrelated Regressions Augmented Dickey-Fuller (SURADF) test; and (3) the Fourier Dickey-Fuller (FADF) test. The findings revealed that among the Visegrad Group countries hysteresis effect was found to exist in the unemployment rates in Hungary and Poland.
EN
The aim of this paper is to detect business cycles of the Visegrad countries using Markov-switching approach and to examine their synchronicity with the Euro Area aggregate as one of the inevitable conditions for optimal common monetary policy implementation. Unlike previous studies, we provide a further analysis by the use of disaggregated data in order to achieve a detailed look at the co-movement of the production and find the highest level of the synchronization within the capital and intermediate goods sector. On the contrary, non-durable consumer goods production can be identified as a potential demand-based source of the asymmetric shocks due to the lowest rate of concordance. The results on the aggregated level complemented with the Hodrick-Prescott filtered data suggest a medium-to-high level of synchronization, although its increase in time cannot be confirmed for all Visegrad countries.
EN
The article deals with the possible implications of Brexit for the V4 countries from the perspective of foreign trade and labour market. Analysing Brexit from the perspective of the V4 countries is essential due to the importance of the UK as the Visegrad countries trade partner. By analysing direct and indirect effects on value added and employment generated by exports to the UK using the multi-regional input-output model, we were able to identify the exposure to Brexit in the V4 countries in terms of value added and employment. Results suggest that the V4 countries belong to the group of countries with a medium risk, particularly in mechanical engineering, automotive industry and electrical engineering. The importance of the UK as a trade partner for the V4 countries has been rising steadily throughout the years and therefore it is important to keep these economic relations as close as possible.
EN
There is an important need in the literature to explore the effects of social media use on young people’s behaviour. The main purpose of this research is to explore which factors of users’ gratifications are associated with using social media by university students from four Visegrad countries in Central Europe. Online communication on social media may be affected by a variety of factors that affect the development of mutual relationships. Thus, research is also focused on trust building on social media. The research team conducted qualitative research aimed at the deeper understanding of students’ opinions on trust and social media and their view on the phenomenon of “fake news”. Conducted focus groups in four countries showed that university students, who are frequent users of social media, are inclined to trust certain pages they like but generally, they do not trust social media. They use social media primarily for maintaining relationships and they believe people who are connected to their network. It is obvious that students use social media to satisfy their needs, especially in the field of entertainment, partly also for obtaining information. The findings show that expected gratifications of students are built on their practical experience with media.
EN
The paper examines long-term and short-term relationships among exchange rates of the Visegrad countries' national currencies vis-a-vis euro. The co-integration tests, vector error correction models and Granger causality tests are applied on the daily nominal exchange rates. The results suggest that long-term linkages are very rare. The only relevant long-term linkage was identified between Polish zloty and Slovak koruna during the period of EU membership. The short-term relationships proved to be significant more often. However, their frequency and intensity have been decreasing during the period analysed. This can be considered as the evidence of diminishing sovereignty of the national currencies and their ability to influence development of other currencies.
EN
The growing importance of everyday work-life balance (WLB) focuses attention on a fair time distribution between the work, life and family domains. Despite the global perception of the crucial role work-life balance plays in everyday routine there are still cross-country differences in WLB satisfaction. The aim of this study was to examine cross-country differences and similarities among a group of four neighbouring European countries; the Visegrad group (V4) countries. More specifically the study aimed to describe the level, changes within rounds of data collection and between-group comparisons of selected ESS variables: WLB satisfaction, working time, and work attachment. The correlation analysis was applied to explain and understand relations between selected variables. The correlation analysis revealed significant negative relationships between WLB satisfaction and both working hours and work attachment in all V4 countries. The results show a similar pattern for Hungary, Poland and Slovakia. Czechia, with a significant between-round of WLB satisfaction increase, was the exception. There were almost no differences in level of satisfaction with work-life balance between respondents living with and without children across time in V4 countries. The comparative analysis revealed a difference between respondents with and without children at home when reporting work attachment. For a deeper understanding further analysis should be done in the future with the focus on time use patterns in the context of work and non-work activities with an emphasis on work and family values in the V4 countries.
EN
This paper tries to determine how growth of money supply affects inflation in different time-horizons and under different inflation levels in the Czech Republic, Poland, Hungary and Russia. The research is done by using two innovative methodologies – the wavelet approach and Bayesian quantile regression. By observing these four countries, we can assess whether inflation targeting (IT) plays significant role in curbing inflation, because three Visegrad group countries adopted IT almost two decades ago, while Russia started to conduct IT relatively recently. Estimated quantiles suggest that money supply growth does not influence inflation in the Czech Republic and Hungary, whatsoever. We find that money growth impacts inflation in Poland, but very modestly. On the other hand, in the case of Russia, the transmission effect from money to inflation is much higher, and it goes around 40% in low inflation conditions, when M1 aggregate is observed, and around 78% in low inflation conditions, when M3 aggregate is analysed. The overall results clearly indicate that the adoption of the IT framework as a disinflation strategy proved to be successful in the Visegrad group countries, since excessive money growth has little or no effect at all on inflation in these countries.
EN
Recently the popularity of fiscal rules has been increasing also due to the impact of the macroeconomic and financial shocks on fiscal sustainability. This paper reviews supranational and national fiscal rules implemented in the Visegrad countries (V4). Namely, we base the review and comparison of fiscal rules on the existing literature and the empirical data from the European Commission. According to the Fiscal Rule Strength Index developed by the European Commission, Poland’s debt rule as of 1997 received the highest ranking. Poland also received the highest score based on the aggregated Fiscal Rules Index in 2009. The most influential in this respect is the application of an early adjustment mechanism which is triggered once the debt to GDP ratio exceeds 50%. Empirical analysis showed that effectiveness of fiscal rules differs across selected groups of countries.
EN
This paper researches the size of volatility transmission from Brent oil market to six stock markets of Central and Eastern European countries, with a distinction between the short-term and long-term effect. We create the transitory and permanent parts of volatilities by using the component GARCH model with the optimal density function and inserted dummy variables. Created volatilities are subsequently embedded in the robust quantile regression framework. The results indicate that the transitory volatility shocks are higher than the permanent ones, which means that investors who operate in the short-term horizons need to be more careful for volatility spillovers from oil market than long-term investors. We find that Polish and Czech stock markets receive the strongest volatility impact from oil. On the other hand, Hungarian and Lithuanian stock markets suffer the lowest volatility effect, in both short and long terms, which favours combining these indices with oil. All the findings can be explained very well by the weight of industry sector in GDP and the net-import of oil. Results of weekly data serve as robustness check for the main findings.
EN
The paper investigates the access of small and medium-sized enterprises to external financing during the recent financial crisis via non-parametric density estimation. The kernel density estimation is applied on a firm-level measure of financing constraints and evaluates its distribution on a balanced panel of SMEs. For application and cross-country comparison we use panel data on Limited Liability enterprises in the Czech Republic, Poland, Slovakia and Hungary. Our results reveal asymmetric impact of the financial crisis on the ability of SMEs to secure external financing. We identify that there is no sizeable difference in access to credit of SMEs in Hungary and Poland before and during the crisis. In Slovakia and the Czech Republic our results suggest that firms were more constrained during the crisis and their financing constraints did not largely improve after the end of financial crisis. We argue that economic recession was the driving factor of financing constraints in Slovakia and the Czech Republic.
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