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ODHAD SPOTREBNEJ FUNKCIE PRE SLOVENSKO A PROGNÓZA SPOTREBY

100%
Senaj M.
Ekonomický časopis (Journal of Economics)
|
2008
|
vol. 56
|
issue 1
3-21
EN
This paper studies the impacts of disposable income and financial wealth on aggregate household consumption. The considered time period ranges from 1996 to 2005. The results confirm that not only disposable income but also wealth has significant impact on consumption. Moreover, we show that the most appropriate proxy for wealth is the sum of monetary aggregate M2 and assets invested in the mutual funds. We also investigate the effects of the interest rates and further relevant variables. It turns out that these variables are not significant in the consumption function. The second main objective of this work is to evaluate the different consumption forecasting approaches. We show that the most accurate in sample and out of sample forecasts originate from a vector error correction model with the exogenous variables.
2

THE BUDGET DEFICIT AND ECONOMIC ACTIVITY (Deficyt budzetu panstwa i aktywnosc gospodarcza)

75%
Krawczyk M.
Ekonomista
|
2009
|
issue 5
559-578
EN
In economic theory the budget deficit policy is a controversial issue and economists dispute over its potency to stimulate the economy. In the case of deficit which results from increased budgetary expenditure the discussion concentrates on such issues as how lasting are the changes in employment, output and prices caused by deficit spending and to what extent the crowding-out effect would raise interest rates and lead to a reduction of households' expenditure. The influence of the deficit on economic activity is ambigious because much depends on what households do when new treasury bills flow into their portfolios. Economic crises make this influence quite uncertain as households' expectations tend to become unstable and their decisions unpredictable . In such a situation the success of the budget deficit policy depends on the ability of policy makers to moderate the behaviour of households.
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