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Wyzwania polityki fiskalnej dla państw Unii Europejskiej w dobie pandemii COVID-19

100%
Wildowicz-Szumarska A.
Studia BAS
|
2021
|
issue 3(67)
117-132
EN
The aim of the article is to explore the size and the structure of fiscal packages, implemented in response to the crisis caused by COVID-19, from the point of view of their impact on the security and stability of public finance. The first section provides an overview of the economic theory on the role of fiscal policy, including the causes of fiscal intervention. Next, difficulties in conducting fiscal policy under the conditions of pandemic are presented. In addition, fiscal instruments and their size are analysed in the context of their influence on budget results. In conclusion, it is claimed that fiscal packages should be temporary and targeted in order not to create a permanent burden on public finance, ensuring budget neutrality in the medium term. The empirical analysis expands the current knowledge on potential effects of fiscal policy implemented under the crisis conditions and low interest rates, when macroeconomic stabilisation can only be ensured through fiscal policy instruments, despite the accompanying fiscal costs related to the increase in public debt.
2
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Glosa aprobująca do wyroku TK z dnia 7 marca 2018 r., sygnatura akt K 2/17

88%
Pawłowski S.
Forum Prawnicze
|
2019
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issue 2 (52)
92–103
EN
The subject of this gloss is a landmark ruling of the Constitutional Tribunal (CK) regarding one of the institutions of antiquity – preclusion. These issues in Polish administrative law are still controversial, and the views often differ significantly. The voted judgment deserves attention because it has not been explicitly stated in Polish jurisprudence for a long time that the rules in force in civil (general) law cannot be directly applied in public (special) law. CK argues that the justification of the institution of antiquity cannot be identical in public law as in private law, because the legal relations are vertical in the first and horizontal in the second. The indicated inequality of participants in the legal relationship and the pos- session of a professional clerical apparatus caring for the interests of the State, including property, means that the classic justification of the institution of an- tiquity, in particular the stabilizing and evidentiary function, are not a sufficient justification for using the preclusion. This is all the more justified when public law interference in property rights occurs without due warranty rights
3

Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanisms in the Central and Eastern European Countries

88%
Shevchuk V.
Argumenta Oeconomica Cracoviensia
|
2020
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issue 2(23)
51-68
EN
Objective: The aim of this study is to examine monetary policy transmission mechanisms in four Central and Eastern European countries (the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Romania), in the presence of fiscal and exchange rate effects. Research Design & Methods: We implement a structural vector autoregression (SVAR) approach for modelling the interdependencies between monetary and fiscal policies, output gap and consumer price inflation (CPI). In our six-variable model, which includes the budget balance, the output gap, CPI, the central bank reference rate, the lending rate and the real exchange rate (RER), short-run restrictions on the contemporaneous structural parameters imply that the budget balance responds to changes in the output gap and lending rate, while the central bank reference rate is a function of output and inflationary shocks. Findings: The results of our research show that the effects of an increase in the central bank’s short-run interest rate on inflation, output gap and the RER are quite heterogeneous across the CEE countries. As the monetary policy response to inflation seems to be significant and rather uniform across countries, though with a different time pattern, there is no evidence of its reaction to the output gap (except for Romania in the long run). Among other results, budget surplus has a strong anti-inflationary impact in all countries but at the expense of a short-lived output slowdown (except for Hungary). The RER undervaluation is likely to stimulate output (Romania) or depress it (Poland), with a neutral stance in the two other countries. As expected, an increase in the lending rate is followed by a fall in output on impact, while there is no significant effect on inflation. Implications/Recommendations: Our study argues in favour of a much stronger response of the central bank reference rate to the output gap in the CEE countries. As suggested by the experience of Poland, an immediate response of the central bank to inflation could explain the lack of the price puzzle when an increase in the reference rate is associated with a sustained increase in consumer prices. An anti-inflationary monetary policy stance should be strengthened by fiscal tightening, while in a recession a higher budget deficit is likely to boost output and prevent a deflationary spiral. Contribution: The article presents the application of the extended IS-MP-IA model to the modelling of monetary policies by the central banks of the CEE countries that practice a floating exchange rate regime.
4
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Strengthening the Post-crisis Fiscal Rules – the Case of Spain, Slovakia and Sweden

88%
Moździerz A.
Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy
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2015
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vol. 10
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issue 2
31-52
EN
The purpose of this article is to identify changes in the development of national fiscal rules in response to the crisis, in terms of the new economic governance in the EU. In-depth analysis was carried out on the example of the three countries that have the highest Fiscal Rule Strength Index, i.e. Spain, Slovakia and Sweden. The conclusions of the study were the basis for the formulation of recommendations for Poland. The research focuses on the new rules as well as the rules modified between 2007 and 2012. The key elements of creating fiscal rules and criteria used for their evaluation were recognized. The research shows that the strength of fiscal rules is determined by their legitimacy, the type of institutions monitoring them, the adjustment mechanism and sanctions, as well as the scope of the public sector, which the rule was imposed on. Short duration of most of the rules limits the ability to evaluate their effectiveness. However, the analysis of changes in the finance sector and local government in terms of new institutional arrangements allowed to conclude that the strong fiscal rules index is not a guarantee of maintaining public finance discipline, and the example of this was the varied fiscal position of the countries surveyed.
5
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Determinanty zróżnicowania zmian wskaźnika długu publicznego w krajach UE 15 w latach 2000-2014

75%
Grabia T.
Nauki o Finansach
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2015
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issue 3(24)
25-46
EN
The aim of the article is to identify the determinants of changes in public debt ratios in the developed countries of the EU (EU-15). The analysis was based on the observations of the average values of analysed variables in particular countries throughout the study period and over two sub-periods: 2001-2007 and 2008-2014. On the basis of the article it can be concluded that the diversification of changes in public debt ratios resulted mainly from varying budget and primary balances (the lower the deficits, the lower the increases in public debt ratios) and, to a smaller extent, also from varying interest rates on bonds (the lower the interest rates, the lower the increases in public debt ratios) as well as varying economic growth rates (the higher the economic growth rates, the lower the rises in public debt ratios).
6
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Dług Skarbu Państwa jako sposób na finansowanie deficytu budżetowego w Polsce w latach 2016-2021

75%
Rechul H.
Prace Naukowe Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego we Wrocławiu
|
2023
|
vol. 67
|
issue 3
63-71
EN
The basic element of the effective functioning of each state is efficient and reasonable management of public finances. Each manifestation of activity of public structures requires financing with public funds. In modern countries, there are additional possibilities of financing budgetary needs, e.g. issuing bonds. When the sum of state expenditures exceeds the sum of its revenues, we are dealing with a deficit. The sum of these deficits over successive years, together with other factors, constitutes the public debt. The aim of the study is to examine the nature and causes of public debt and to assess its level and effects on the economy. The study uses the descriptive method and the method of statistical data analysis. The data was taken from the statistical studies of the Ministry of Finance. The results of the analysis indicate, among others, that the State Treasury debt is the most important item in the structure of the state public debt and was acquired on domestic markets.
PL
Podstawowym elementem efektywnego funkcjonowania każdego państwa jest sprawne i rozsądne zarządzanie finansami publicznymi. Każdy przejaw aktywności struktur publicznych wymaga finansowania środkami publicznymi. W nowoczesnych państwach istnieją dodatkowe możliwości finansowania potrzeb budżetowych, np. emisja obligacji. Gdy suma wydatków państwa przewyższa sumę jego dochodów, mamy do czynienia z deficytem. Suma tych deficytów z następujących po sobie lat, wraz z innymi czynnikami, stanowi dług publiczny. Celem opracowania jest zbadanie istoty i przyczyn powstawania długu publicznego oraz ocena jego poziomu i skutków dla gospodarki. W opracowaniu wykorzystano metodę opisową i metodę analizy danych statystycznych. Dane zaczerpnięto z opracowań statystycznych Ministerstwa Finansów. Wyniki analizy wskazują m.in., że dług Skarbu Państwa jest najważniejszą pozycją w strukturze państwowego długu publicznego i pozyskany został na rynkach krajowych. Słowa kluczowe: dług publiczny, deficyt budżetowy, równowaga budżetowa
7

Domestic and External Demand Shocks in Ukraine

63%
Kopych R., Bardyn I.
Zeszyty Naukowe Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego w Krakowie
|
2015
|
issue 7(943)
79-93
EN
Persistent budget deficits and extremely high interest rates (while inflation remains relatively low) have been a distinct feature of the 2010–2013 period in Ukraine. By using a statistical technique of the vector autoregressive − vector error correction (VAR/VEC) model, it is established that: a) the budget deficit is a factor behind the exchange rate depreciation and an increase in the interest rate, with a very strong contractionary effect on output; b) a higher interest rate contributes to worsening of the budget balance and a significant decrease in output (both are standard macroeconomic relationships); c) nominal exchange rate depreciation permanently widens the budget deficit, combined with a temporary increase in the interest rate and short-lived output contraction. It is worth noting that upward interest rate pressure is the only statistically significant effect of a positive output shock. According to the variance decomposition, the budget balance determines up to 50% and the interest rate upwards of 40% of changes in the output, respectively. It is confirmed that an increase in output is of marginal importance for the budget balance. On the whole, our findings argue in favour of fiscal discipline in Ukraine as a stabilisation policy tool.
PL
Utrzymujący się deficyt budżetowy oraz ekstremalnie wysokie stopy procentowe jako skutek bardzo niskiej inflacji stanowią wyraźną cechę gospodarki ukraińskiej w latach 2010–2013. Wykorzystując metodę autoregresji wektorowej z korektą błędu (VAR/VEC), ustalono, że: a) deficyt budżetowy jest czynnikiem deprecjacji kursu walutowego oraz wzrostu poziomu stopy procentowej, a także mocnego negatywnego oddziaływania na wzrost gospodarczy; b) wzrost stopy procentowej powoduje pogorszenie się bilansu budżetowego oraz znaczący spadek produkcji (oba rezultaty to standardowe makroekonomiczne relacje); c) deprecjacja kursu walutowego powoduje permanentne pogorszenie się bilansu budżetowego oraz przejściowy wzrost stopy procentowej i obniżenie poziomu dochodu. Warto zwrócić uwagę, że presja w kierunku wzrostu stopy procentowej okazała się jedynym statystycznie istotnym skutkiem wzrostu dochodu (PKB). Według wariancji reszt bilans budżetowy wyznacza do 50%, a stopa procentowa do 40% zmian dochodu. Potwierdzono, że wzrost dochodu nie ma wpływu na bilans budżetowy. Ogólnie mówiąc, otrzymane wyniki świadczą na korzyść dyscypliny fiskalnej w gospodarce ukraińskiej jako narzędzia polityki stabilizacyjnej.
8

Efekty makroekonomiczne polityki fiskalnej i monetarnej w gospodarkach Europy Środkowej i Wschodniej

63%
Shevchuk V., Kopych R., Holynska M.
Zeszyty Naukowe Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego w Krakowie
|
2019
|
issue 3(981)
43-62
PL
Cel: Celem artykułu jest zbadanie wpływu bilansu budżetowego oraz podaży pieniądza na inflację cen produkcyjnych (PPI), bilans obrotów bieżących oraz lukę dochodu dla wybranych pięciu krajów Europy Środkowej i Wschodniej (EŚW), tj. Bułgarii, Czech, Węgier, Polski i Rumunii. Metodyka badań: Do modelowania efektów makroekonomicznych bilansu budżetowego i podaży pieniądza dla próby danych kwartalnych z lat 2000–2017 wykorzystano strukturalny model autoregresyjny (SVAR), który przewiduje uzależnienie podaży pieniądza w bieżącym okresie od bilansu obrotów bieżących, przy jednoczesnej zależności tego wskaźnika równowagi zewnętrznej od cyklu koniunkturalnego. Wyniki badań: Ustalono, że we wszystkich pięciu krajach EŚW poprawa bilansu budżetowego nie wywołuje niekorzystnych zmian dochodu. W większości krajów (Bułgaria, Czechy, Polska) nadwyżka budżetowa prowadzi do spowolnienia inflacji cen produkcyjnych, a także poprawy bilansu obrotów bieżących (Czechy, Polska, Węgry). Nadwyżka budżetowa powoduje przeważnie zwiększenie podaży pieniądza. Poluzowanie polityki monetarnej prowadzi zarówno do pogorszenia bilansu budżetowego (Bułgaria, Polska), jak i do krótkookresowej poprawy tego wskaźnika (Czechy, Węgry). Efekty makroekonomiczne wywołane zmianą podaży pieniądza są bardziej zróżnicowane, co przemawia na korzyść efektów monetarnych tak po stronie popytowej, jak i podażowej. Wnioski: Otrzymane rezultaty wskazują na to, że większe korzyści wynikają z prowadzenia konserwatywnej polityki fiskalnej i monetarnej we wszystkich badanych krajach EŚW, a przede wszystkim w Polsce i Czechach. Wkład w rozwój dyscypliny: Przeprowadzone badania uzasadniają wykorzystanie modelu gospodarki zależnej z dwoma sektorami – dóbr będących i niebędących przedmiotem wymiany w handlu międzynarodowym (tradable and nontradable goods)– do analizy polityki ekonomicznej prowadzonej w krajach EŚW.
EN
Objective: The aim of this paper is to study the effects of budget balance and money supply on producer price inflation (PPI), the current account balance and the output gap for five Central and East European (CEE) countries (Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Romania). Research Design & Methods: Based on the quarterly data over the 2000–2017 period, macroeconomic effects of the budget balance and money supply are estimated with the Structural Vector Autoregressive (SVAR) model, which anticipates reliance of the money supply upon the current account balance on impact, with a simultaneous dependence of the latter upon the business cycle. Findings: A budget surplus did not cause any output losses in any of the five CEE countries. For three of the countries (Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Poland), a budget surplus is associated with decelerating producer price inflation and improvement in the current account balance (the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland). A budget surplus is likely to bring about an increase in the money supply. Expansionary monetary policy is a factor behind either worsening of the budget balance (Bulgaria, Poland), or a short-lived improvement in it (the Czech Republic, Hungary). Macroeconomic effects of the money supply tend to be heterogeneous, supporting both demand-side and supply-side transmission mechanisms. Implications / Recommendations: Our results favour conservative fiscal and monetary policies in all five of the CEE countries, particularly in the Czech Republic and Poland. Contribution: The scientific contribution of the article is that it justifies the use of the dependent economy model, with output disaggregated into tradable and nontradable sectors, for analysis of economic policy in the CEE countries.
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