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The Viterbi paths in an analysis of business cycle synchronization

100%
Bernardelli M., Dędys M.
Prace i Materiały Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH
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2015
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vol. 97: Economic cycles and uncertainty
9-23
EN
In the paper we investigate possibility of using the Viterbi paths to analyze two-dimensional macroeconomic time series. We build a two-dimensional Gaussian Markov-switching model with a four-state hidden Markov chain. The model is tested with two pairs of monthly indexes of industrial production for: Poland vs. France, and Poland vs. Germany. The most likely sequence of states of the hidden Markov chain is found for each pair. We compare that sequence with analogous sequences determined for a one-dimensional model with a two-state hidden Markov chain. The results of the comparison suggests the four state Viterbi path provides more valuable information about business cycle synchronization between the two economies than two separate two-state Viterbi paths.
2
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The OCA Theory and Its Empirical Application for the EMU

100%
Tyrowicz J.
Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics
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2007
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vol. 216
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issue 5-6
45-60
EN
The paper probes the notions of an “optimum currency area” (OCA) and “business cycle synchronization” in the context of convergence within the European Monetary Union (EMU). Analyzing the latest literature in this area, the author concludes that most of the measures currently used and promoted ignore the key advantages and disadvantages of an optimum currency area. At the same time, the paper attempts to apply a common tool of gravity equation to test the possible impact of the EMU on trade patterns among EU member states. By implementing a traditional notion of gravity equation, the author demonstrates that, as far as international trade is concerned, it is possible to move trade flows from non-EMU countries to those using the single European currency.
3
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A breakdown of sector performance of the visegrad countries and germany in light of structural convergence

100%
Úradníček V., Zimková E.
Śląski Przegląd Statystyczny
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2013
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issue 11(17)
31-48
EN
The aim of this contribution is to analyze a breakdown of sector performance of the Visegrad countries and Germany in light of structural convergence. The macroeconomic view on structural convergence was researched by the estimation of business cycle synchronization of pairs of countries. The microeconomic aspect of structural convergence is characterized by the breakdown of sector performance of the analyzed countries and the application of the Krugman specialization index.
4
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BUSINESS CYCLE SYNCHRONIZATION IN EUROPEAN UNION: REGIONAL PERSPECTIVE

88%
Beck K.
Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy
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2016
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vol. 11
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issue 4
785-815
EN
The recent turmoil in the euro area once more forces the EU authorities to reconsider the future of further monetary integration. One of the most commonly used criteria for successful monetary integration in contemporary research is business cycle synchronization (BCS). Though BCS has been vastly described at country level, not as much attention has been paid to the degree of BSC at regional level. The topic is important for two main reasons. Firstly, determining the degree of BCS at the regional level can help in the assessment of monetary policy effectiveness on the country level, as well as give a point of reference for evaluation of prospective costs of participation in a monetary union. Secondly, there is a theoretical dispute within the optimum currency areas literature between the ‘European Commission’ and the ‘Krugman’ view that can be resolved to a large extent trough regional analysis. In order to assess BCS in the EU, Hodrick-Prescott, as well as Christiano and Fitzgerald filter to time series of real GDP for 24 countries, 82 NUTS 1, 242 NUTS 2 and 1264 NUTS 3 regions over the period between 1998 and 2010. The data was later used to create bilateral measures of BSC, which gave 276 observations on the country level, 3321 on NUTS 1, 29161 on NUTS 2 and 798216 on NUTS 3 level. The results of the analysis support the ‘European Commission’ view and show a very high degree of BSC within EU countries. The country level analysis also reveals that within the EU there is a group of countries that could form an effectively working monetary union based on the BCS criterion.
5
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Wpływ porozumień handlowych na synchronizację gospodarki meksykańskiej z gospodarką światową

63%
Grabowski W., Stawasz E., Wieloch J., Łódzki U.
Ekonomia Międzynarodowa
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2015
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vol. 012
PL
W artykule omówiono porozumienia handlowe zawarte między Meksykiem a innymi krajami. Wyniki analizy odpowiedzi na impuls oraz współczynników natychmiastowej quasi-korelacji wskazują na znaczący wzrost synchronizacji meksykańskiego cyklu koniunkturalnego z cyklami krajów rozwiniętych oraz na istotny wzrost wrażliwości gospodarki meksykańskiej na szoki w gospodarce światowej.
EN
In this paper we evaluate the role of trading channels in the transmission of shocks on the basis of the business cycle synchronization between the Mexican and the world economy. In order to evaluate business cycle synchronization, parameters of 2-variate VAR models for GDP growths are estimated. Measures of instantaneous quasi-correlation coefficients are calculated for the period preceding the signing of an agreement and the period of validity of the agreement.
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