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Are Habits in Consumption Important for the Propagation of Business Cycle Fluctuations in Bulgaria?

100%
Vasilev A.
Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics
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2019
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issue 3
2
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Do barriers to innovation impact changes in innovation activities of firms during business cycle? The effect of the Polish green island

88%
Jakimowicz A., Rzeczkowski D.
Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy
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2019
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vol. 14
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issue 4
631-676
EN
Research background: There is no doubt that innovation is an important source of economic growth. In the assessment of the innovative activity of Polish industrial processing enterprises, two opposing views can be found. The first indicates the exogenous shock resulting from the global financial crisis and the associated innovation crisis and the subsequent period of innovative pessimism. The second shows the Polish economy as the European Green Island due to strong and uninterrupted economic growth over the past 27 years, controlled inflation, and reduction of unemployment as well as increase of the citizens? well-being. In these conditions, an interesting research gap appeared, which is worth filling, at the centre of which there are factors determining the innovative activity of enterprises, and in particular the role and importance of innovation barriers in various phases of the business cycle. Purpose of the article: The aim of the research is to determine the impact of innovation barriers and degrees of their importance on the innovation activity of Polish industrial processing enterprises during the business cycle. The time frame of the analysis covers three phases of the cycle: the prosperity period of 2004?2006, the global financial crisis of 2008?2010 and the recovery from 2012?2014. Methods: Pearson?s ?2 independence test and correspondence analysis were used for data analysis. The research results are presented in a graphical form of biplots that describe the coexistence of three types of variables: (1) types of enterprises and ownership sectors, (2) effects or objectives of innovative activity, and (3) innovation barriers and reasons for the lack of innovation. The basis of calculations were three databases covering the mentioned periods. Findings & Value added: High resistance of innovative activity of Polish industrial processing enterprises to economic fluctuations has been demonstrated. Innovation barriers and degrees of their importance had little impact on the operations of enterprises in the first of the analysed periods, when prosperity was booming. The impact of the global financial crisis on innovation activities proved to be counterintuitive, as enterprises have continuously achieved their goals and the importance of innovation barriers has diminished even more. In the third period, innovation barriers no longer had any significance for the innovation activities of enterprises. The phenomenon of a gradual decline in the importance of innovation barriers, regardless of the phases of the business cycle, was called the Polish Green Island Effect. The relationship found is a peculiarity which is probably unprecedented in recent world economic history.
3
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Analiza wyprzedzających i jednoczesnych wskaźników gospodarczych

75%
Ulrichs M.
Prace i Materiały Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH
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2013
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vol. 91: Badania koniunktury - zwierciadło gospodarki. Część II
169-204
PL
W artykule przedstawiono wyniki analizy danych o częstotliwości miesięcznej, określające zestaw zmiennych ekonomicznych reprezentujących cykl koniunkturalny w Polsce. Udało się oszacować bieżący i wyprzedzający wskaźnik koniunktury. Wyprzedzenie uzyskane dla wskaźnika wyprzedzającego wynosi ok. 8 miesięcy. Zastosowana została wielostopniowa procedura selekcji informacji. W pierwszym kroku dokonano preselekcji potencjalnych szeregów czasowych, reprezentujących zmiany koniunktury, na podstawie pogłębionej analizy literatury przedmiotu i analizy dostępności danych statystycznych. Wybrane w ten sposób zmienne zostały następnie poddane szczegółowej i szerokiej analizie statystycznej (w dziedzinie czasu i częstości). Mając na względzie, iż metody dekompozycji szeregu czasowego są wrażliwe na nowe obserwacje, w badaniu przeprowadzono analizę stabilności uzyskanych wskaźników koniunktury. Przeprowadzono również eksperyment Monte Carlo, którego wyniki wskazują, iż otrzymane wskaźniki są odporne na szoki.
XX
The aim of the paper is to describe a process of building monthly coincident and leading indicators for the Polish economy. We take into consideration both time and frequency domain analysis and we find series that move together with reference cycle and series which can be considered as leading indicators. This framework considers extensive analysis of cycle indicators for the Polish business cycle. Approximation of current business cycle is measured by a composite indicator. The lead of leading indicator is about 8 months. Real-time performance for the composite coincident and leading indicators was carried out. Obtained composite indicators are robust for new observations. Monte Carlo experiment show that both coincident and leading indicators are robust for external shocks.
4
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The Role of Energy in a Real Business Cycle Model with an Endogenous Capital Utilization Rate in a Government Sector: Lessons from Bulgaria (1999–2016)

75%
Vasilev A.
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2018
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vol. 5
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issue 52
EN
We introduce a pro-cyclical endogenous utilization rate of physical capital stock into a real business cycle model augmented with a government sector in detail. We calibrate the model to Bulgarian data for the period following the introduction of the currency board arrangement (1999–2016). We investigate the quantitative importance of the endogenous depreciation rate and the capital utilization mechanism working through the use of energy for cyclical fluctuations in Bulgaria. In particular, a positive shock to energy prices in the model works like a negative technological shock. Allowing for variations in factor utilization and the presence of energy as a factor of production improves the model performance against data, and in addition this extended setup dominates the standard RBC model framework with constant depreciation and a fixed utilization rate of physical capital (e.g., Vasilev (2009)).
5

Podobieństwo wahań koniunkturalnych w Stanach Zjednoczonych i w dużych gospodarkach wschodzących

63%
Wyrobek J., Stańczyk Z.
Zeszyty Naukowe Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego w Krakowie
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2014
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issue 1(925)
27-42
PL
Celem artykułu jest zweryfikowanie hipotezy o związkach cykli koniunkturalnych gospodarki Stanów Zjednoczonych z cyklami koniunkturalnymi głównych gospodarek wschodzących (z wyjątkiem Chin). Z analizy danych, w tym w szczególności z analizy harmonicznej i analizy koherencji, wynika, że gdy uwzględni się odchylenia tempa PKB od trendu długookresowego, to już przed światowym kryzysem finansowym występowała umiarkowana synchronizacja cykli pomiędzy Stanami Zjednoczonymi i zdecydowaną większością dużych gospodarek wschodzących, a kryzys wyraźnie zwiększył tę synchronizację. Jeżeli zwiększenie synchronizacji rzeczywiście wystąpiło w ostatnich latach, to uzasadnione są obawy, że w najbliższych latach większość gospodarek wschodzących nie osiągnie stóp wzrostu na poziomie przedkryzysowym.
EN
The purpose of the paper was to verify the hypothesis that a relationship exists between business cycles in the US and the main emerging economies (excluding China). If one compares the deviations of GDPs from their long-term trends on the basis of the conducted analysis, including harmonic and coherence analysis, it appears that prior to the global financial crisis there was already some degree of synchronisation of cycles between these economies and the US, which then increased substantially during the crisis itself. If this was a real phenomenon, one may justifiably have doubts as to the ability of the majority of emerging economies to reach pre-crisis GDP growth rates in the near future.
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