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EN
The Colombian Observatory of Science and Technology -OCyT- developed, in 2009, a survey about understanding of Science and Technology in students of high school in Bogotá, Colombia. The sampling design was stratified according to the nature of school (public or private). Two sources of unit nonresponse were detected. The first one corresponds to schools that did not allowed to collect information. The second source corresponds to students who did not assist during the days when survey was applied. Estimates were obtained through two different approaches. Results obtained in both cases do not show visible differences when estimating ratios; even though, some great differences were observed when estimating totals. Results obtained using the second approach are believed to be more reliable because of the methodology used to handle item nonresponse.
EN
In this paper, two modified, design-based calibration ratio-type estimators are presented. The suggested estimators were developed under stratified random sampling using information on an auxiliary variable in the form of robust statistical measures, including Gini’s mean difference, Downton’s method and probability weighted moments. The properties (biases and MSEs) of the proposed estimators are studied up to the terms of firstorder approximation by means of Taylor’s Series approximation. The theoretical results were supported by a simulation study conducted on four bivariate populations and generated using normal, chi-square, exponential and gamma populations. The results of the study indicate that the proposed calibration scheme is more precise than any of the others considered in this paper.
EN
Domain estimation has become an important area in survey sampling, however a lot of problems associate with it. One out of many is the lack of consistency between different surveys. The results of one survey do not coincide with the results of another survey done earlier or simultaneously, although the same variable is under study. We study two methods, AC-calibration (A – auxiliary, C – common) and repeated weighting (RW), for achieving consistency. A short overview of these two methods is given, and we develop formulas for a specified case, for the crossclassified domains. We assume that there are two sources of information on the study variables (either surveys or registers). The problem is that one source has information on domains formed by certain categorical variable, not considered or not identified in the other source. Instead, this second source has information on domains formed by another categorical variable. We are however interested in domains cross-classified with these categorical variables. A survey is done regarding these new domains, but the domain estimates will probably be inconsistent with marginal information, from earlier surveys. We require that the new domain estimates be consistent with the marginals. To achieve this we apply AC-calibration or repeated weighting. The formulas of AC-calibration and RW for the cross-classified domains are tested in a simulation study. Simulations were done on a population composed of real data from the Estonian Household Survey.
EN
Informative sampling refers to a sampling design for which the sample selection probabilities depend on the values of the model outcome variable. In such cases the model holding for the sample data is different from the model holding for the population data. Similarly, nonignorable nonresponse refers to a nonresponse mechanism in which the response probability depends on the value of a missing outcome variable. For such a nonresponse mechanism the model holding for the response data is different from the model holding for the population data. In this paper, we study, within a modelling framework, the semi-parametric prediction of a finite population total by specifying the probability distribution of the response units under informative sampling and nonignorable nonresponse. This is the most general situation in surveys and other combinations of sampling informativeness and response mechanisms can be considered as special cases. Furthermore, based on the relationship between response distribution and population distribution, we introduce a new measure of the representativeness of a response set and a new test of nonignorable nonresponse and informative sampling, jointly. Finally, a calibration estimator is obtained when the sampling design is informative and the nonresponse mechanism is nonignorable.
EN
The paper analyzes the so-called real business cycle model developed by American economist Gary D. Hansen. The model is expanded to include an indivisible labor mechanism. The aim is to check the model in terms of its accuracy in explaining business cycle fluctuations in Poland. The first part of the article discusses the assumptions and structure of the model. The authors define a state of stationary equilibrium and the final form of the model-a system of log-linearized equations. In the second part of the paper, the authors calibrate the structural parameters and conduct an empirical analysis of the Hansen model, beginning with the characteristics of the variables used in the study and the value of the model’s parameters. The model is solved and the reactions of individual variables to a technological shock are analyzed. The coefficients of correlation and the deviations of standard simulated and real variables show that the model correctly reflects the direction and strength of the relationships between the variables, the authors say. Positive correlations were obtained between all the simulated variables, in the same way as in the case of actual data. At the same time, in the case of simulated data, much higher correlations were obtained between capital and consumption and between technological changes and labor than in the case of actual data. As part of the study, an analysis was also conducted of the reactions of variables to a technological shock introduced to the model on an impulse basis. The strongest reaction to the shock was recorded in the case of labor supply and production. Moreover, in the same way as for actual data, the authors found that the fluctuations of consumption are much weaker than the fluctuations of production. This stems from the fact that households tend to smooth out consumption over time, Kuchta and Piłat say. The obtained results confirm that the dynamism of the Hansen real business cycle model, despite its simplicity, relatively accurately reflects the changes in Poland’s key macroeconomic variables.
EN
It is common to address the problem of uncertainty in computable general equilibrium modeling by sensitivity analysis. The relevant studies of the effects of parameter uncertainty usually focus on various elasticity parameters. In this paper we undertake sensitivity analysis with respect to the parameters derived from calibration to a benchmark data set, and describing the structure of the economy. We use a time series of benchmark databases for the years 1996-2005 for Poland to sequentially calibrate a static CGE model, and examine the dispersion of endogenous variables’ responses in three distinct simulation experiments. We find a part – though not the most – of the results to be significantly sensitive to the choice of calibration database (including ambiguities about the direction of response). The dispersion of the results and its sources clearly depend on the shock in question. Uncertainty is also quite diverse between variables. It is thus recommended that a thorough parametric sensitivity analysis be a conventional part of a simulation study. Also, the reliability of results would likely benefit even from simple, trend-based updates of the benchmark data, as the responses of endogenous variables exhibit systematic changes, observed when the model is calibrated to the data for consecutive years.
PL
Typowym sposobem odniesienia się do problemu niepewności wyników symulacji na podstawie modeli CGE (Computable General Equilibrium) jest analiza wrażliwości. Większość prac poświęconych temu zagadnieniu koncentruje się na kwestii wyboru wartości różnego rodzaju elastyczności. W niniejszej pracy podejmujemy analizę wrażliwości dotyczącą parametrów opisujących strukturę gospodarki, uzyskiwanych w drodze kalibracji. Do kalibracji modelu używamy zestawów danych za kolejne lata z okresu 1996-2005, a następnie analizujemy rozrzut wyników dla trzech różnych eksperymentów symulacyjnych. Wyniki dla części – choć nie większości – zmiennych charakteryzują się znaczącą wrażliwością na wybór bazy danych wykorzystanej do kalibracji (włączając niepewność co do kierunku reakcji). Stopień rozrzutu wyników i jego źródła istotnie zależą od rodzaju analizowanego scenariusza symulacyjnego. Skala niepewności dotyczącej poszczególnych zmiennych jest również zróżnicowana. Zaleca się zatem, aby gruntowna analiza wrażliwości była standardową częścią badania symulacyjnego. Ponadto zastosowanie nawet prostych (np. opartych na analizie trendów) metod aktualizacji bazy danych mogłoby najprawdopodobniej zwiększyć wiarygodność wyników, biorąc pod uwagę, że reakcje zmiennych endogenicznych na zadawane w symulacjach impulsy podlegają systematycznym zmianom, gdy model kalibrowany jest do danych z kolejnych lat.
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EN
The main aim of the paper is to use the repeated weighting (RW) method on data from the National Census of Population and Housing 2011 (NCPH) and Labour Force Survey (LFS) to ensure consistency between margins of final tables derived from different statistical sources. This technique, based on different data sources, would en sure consistency between estimates in final output tables. This is the first application of the RW approach on data from official statistics in Poland. The results obtained by applying the RW method to data from the NCPH and additional surveys (e.g. LFS) may be used by Statistics Poland for the formulation of conclusions and recommendations for the upcoming census in 2021. The method may be also considered as an important step towards the production of timely and more detailed statistical information in Poland based on multi-source data infrastructure in general.
EN
Background Thermoluminescent detectors, type MTS-6, containing isotope ⁶Li (lithium) are sensitive in the range of thermal neutron energy; the ²³⁹Pu-Be (plutonium-and-beryllium) source emits neutrons in the energy range from 1 to 11 MeV. These seemingly contradictory elements may be combined by using the paraffin moderator, a determined density of thermal neutrons in the paraffin block and a conversion coefficient neutron flux to kerma, not forgetting the simultaneous registration of the photon radiation inseparable from the companion neutron radiation. The main aim of this work is to present the idea of calibration of thermoluminescent detectors that consist of a ⁶Li isotope, by using ²³⁹Pu-Be neutron radiation source. Material and Methods In this work, MTS-6 and MTS-7 thermoluminescent detectors and a plutonium-and-beryllium (²³⁹Pu-Be) neutron source were used. Paraffin wax fills the block, acting as a moderator. The calibration idea was based on the determination of dose equivalent rate based on the average kerma rate calculated taking into account the empirically determined function describing the density of thermal neutron flux in the paraffin block and a conversion coefficient neutron flux to kerma. Results The calculated value of the thermal neutron flux density was 1817.5 neutrons/cm²/s and the average value of kerma rate determined on this basis amounted to 244 μGy/h, and the dose equivalent rate 610 μSv/h. The calculated value allowed for the assessment of the length of time of exposure of the detectors directly in the paraffin block. Conclusions The calibration coefficient for the used batch of detectors is (6.80±0.42)×10⁻⁷ Sv/impulse. Med Pr 2017;68(6):705–710
Medycyna Pracy
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2019
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vol. 70
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issue 6
669-673
EN
Background The method of measuring doses based on the thermoluminescence phenomenon is not an absolute method. For this reason, to obtain correct results, it is necessary to calibrate detectors in the known radiation field. This paper presents a method for calibrating thermoluminescent detectors used in the measurement of personal dose equivalents (Hp(0.07)) obtained by nuclear medicine facility personnel when handling the $\text{}^{99m} \text{Tc}$ radionuclide. Material and Methods The authors used self-developed high-sensitivity thermoluminescent detectors and a HF320C X-ray unit, as well as a rod phantom. Dosimeters were calibrated in accordance with the ISO 4037-3 standard. During the measurements a vial containing a $\text{}^{99m} \text{Tc}$ radionuclide with well-known activity was also used. The energy characteristics were supplemented by using a ¹³⁷Cs source (irradiator ⁶⁰Co/¹³⁷Cs). Results The value of the calibration coefficient for 118 keV energy energy was (1.90±0.02)×10⁻⁵ mSv/imp. Taking into account the correction factor specified for of 140 keV energy at 0.962, the value of the calibration coefficient for 140 keV energy was determined as (1.83±0.02)×10⁻⁵ mSv/imp. Conclusions Verification of the calibration coefficient determined for 140 keV energy carried out with a vial containing a $\text{}^{99m} \text{Tc}$ radionuclide confirmed the correctness of the procedure. Med Pr. 2019;70(6):669–73
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PL
Losowanie zrównoważone polega na takim doborze próby, aby szacunki sum zmiennych pomocniczych estymatorem Horvitza-Thompsona równały się rzeczywistym sumom tych zmiennych. Kalibracja natomiast polega na modyfikacji wyjściowych wag wynikających z planu losowania w taki sposób, aby zmodyfikowane wagi odtwarzały znane sumy zmiennych pomocniczych. Ideą obu metod jest odwzorowanie wartości globalnych zmiennych dodatkowych. Celem artykułu jest przedstawienie i porównanie obu technik traktowanych jako alternatywa do osiągnięcia tego samego celu. Więcej uwagi poświęcono losowaniu zrównoważonemu. Algorytm doboru próby zilustrowano za pomocą dwóch prostych przykładów. Porównanie losowania zrównoważonego z kalibracją wypada korzystniej dla tej drugiej metody, jednak najlepszym rozwiązaniem jest zastosowanie obu metod jednocześnie.
EN
A balanced sampling design is a design in which Horvitz-Thompson estimators of population totals for a set of auxiliary variables equal the known totals of these variables. On the other hand, calibration is a technique where the modification of design weights occurs in such a way that the new weights, when applied to auxiliary variables, reproduce, i.e. estimate without error, the known totals for these variables. The general idea behind balanced sampling and calibration is thus the same — both techniques tend to reproduce known totals of the auxiliary variables. The purpose of the paper is to describe and compare both techniques, considering them as alternatives in achieving the same goal. More attention was devoted to balanced sampling. The algorithm for selecting a sample was illustrated with two numerical examples. The comparison between balanced sampling and calibration, as alternatives, indicates calibration, but the best strategy is to use both methods simultaneously.
RU
Сбалансированная выборка заключается в такой выборке, чтобы оценки вспомогательных сумм величин оценкой Хорвица-Томсона были равны фактическим суммам этих величин. В то же время калибровка состит в модификации выходных весов являющихся результатом плана выборки так, чтобы модифицированные весы воссоздавали известные суммы вспомогательных величин. Идея обоих методов состоит в копировании значения глобальных дополнительных величин. Целью статьи является представление и сопоставление двух методов, которые считаются альтернативой для достижения той же цели. Больше внимание было уделено сбалансированной выборке. Алгоритм выборки представлен с помощью двух простых примеров. Сравнение сбалансированной выборки с калибровкой является выгодным для другого метода, но самым хорошим решением является одновременное использование обоих методов.
EN
The study aims to explore the spectral properties of flow and antiflow states. 20 young male participants played a collision-avoidance computer-game while their spectral EEG activity have been measured. Flow, boredom, and anxiety conditions were differentiated with the help of personal adjustment of the game speeds. Personal baseline values were obtained with an objective and a subjective preliminary skill measurement on the same computer-game. The spectral activities of the subjects through the three conditions showed that generally under the flow condition the activity is lower than in the anxiety condition, but higher than in the boredom condition regarding delta, theta, beta, and gamma spectra. More importantly the temporal dynamics shows, that initially in flow and anxiety conditions an ascending activity can be observed, whereas after a climax in the activity graph a strong decline appears in the flow condition (beta and gamma), while this is weakly or not at all present in the anxiety condition, and an increase appears in the boredom condition. Our results support the hypofrontality hypothesis of flow and points out the importance of measuring flow in its temporal dynamics. The behavioural data does not support the idea of flow as a mechanism for effectance-optimalisation, but rather as a mechanism for optimalising for the maximalisation of gaining information and/or experience.
PL
Celem pracy jest przedstawienie zastosowania podejścia kalibracyjnego w badaniu losów absolwentów Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego w Poznaniu, realizowanego w ramach projektu „Kadry dla gospodarki”, w którym partnerem uczelni był Urząd Statystyczny w Poznaniu. Obowiązek przeprowadzenia badania nakładały na szkoły wyższe akty prawne dotyczące monitorowania przebiegu karier zawodowych absolwentów. Kluczowym problemem badania były przypadki niewzięcia w nim udziału absolwentów objętych monitorowaniem, co powodowało obciążenie uzyskanych wyników na skutek występowania błędu nielosowego. Wykorzystując kalibrację, stosowaną w badaniach reprezentacyjnych do korygowania wag wynikających ze schematu losowania próby, zaprezentowano, jak poprzez dobór odpowiednich zmiennych pomocniczych można zredukować ujemny wpływ braków odpowiedzi w pełnym badaniu losów absolwentów. W artykule szczegółowo przedstawiono zakres badania, teoretyczne podstawy kalibracji oraz opisano wykorzystanie zmiennych pomocniczych do budowy wag kalibracyjnych, które następnie mogły zostać uwzględnione w procesie tabulacji i graficznej prezentacji wyników. W artykule zaprezentowano również zagadnienia dotyczące oceny jakości precyzji uzyskanych wyników estymacji.
EN
The aim of the research is to present the application of calibration approach in the tracer study of the Poznań University of Economics and Business graduates conducted within the ”Staff for Economy” project and partnered by the Statistical Office in Poznań. The obligation to carry out tracer studies was imposed on universities by the legal acts concerning the process of monitoring graduates professional careers. The most important problem in the research was nonresponse of monitored graduates, which influenced the results obtained due to non-random error. The use of calibration applied in representative surveys to correct weights resulting from the sampling scheme showed, by choosing the appropriate auxiliary variables, how the negative impact of the lack of response can be reduced in full graduates tracer study. The article presents in detail the scope of research and theoretical basis of calibration. It describes also the use of auxiliary variables in the creation of calibrated weights which could then be included in the tabulation process and graphical presentation of results. Additionally, the article raises the issues of assessing the precision of estimation results.
EN
In the paper the author described briefly modern technical possibilities of supporting the use of maps in field research and presented methods of map use in localisation of objects. In his description of the methods the author presented the differences in the approach to the problem depending on the features of the maps, both paper and digital ones. He also stressed the issue of adjustment of the features related to the cartometricity of the maps in use to the coordinate system in which the data reąuired for the field projects are obtained and processed.
PL
Wykorzystanie materiałów wykonanych w formie klasycznej, w obecnie prowadzonych pracach geodezyjnych, wymaga wielu czynności technicznych. Najwięcej problemów powstaje w przypadku kiedy formę komputerową otrzymać musi mapa prowadzona dotychczas w formie analogowej. Niejednokrotnie przekształcone do postaci cyfrowej dokumenty nie posiadają odpowiednio wysokiej dokładności, aby można było posłużyć się nimi do określenia położenia elementów zagospodarowania terenu. Najgorsze wyniki dokładnościowe otrzymywane są z reguły na skrajach arkuszy mapy, na których nie ma punktów dostosowania. Możliwości posłużenia się takimi mapami w wykonawstwie sprawdzono w niniejszej pracy.
EN
The use of materials made in a classical form, in the ongoing work of surveying, requires a lot of technical activities. Most problems arise in those cases when a map previously carried in analog form, needs to be prepared in a computer form. Often, documents converted to digital form, do not have a sufficiently high accuracy, so that they can used to determine the location of landscaping elements. The worst precision results usually are obtained on the edges of map sheets where are no adjustment points. The oopportunities from using such maps in the surveying performance were tested in this paper.
EN
Background An important issue in the assessment of health risks related to air pollution with fine dust is the measurement of individual exposure. Such possibilities are provided by relatively easy to use optical monitors. The aim of the presented work was to assess the possibility of using the AM520 optical monitor to measure individual human exposure to PM2.5 and PM10 indoors by determining the calibration factor and assessing the compliance of the measurement with the reference method. Material and Methods As part of the research, indoor concentrations of PM2.5 and PM10 and were measured (3 locations in the Gliwice Poviat, March−May 2017) with the use of the SidePak Personal Aerosol Monitor AM520, as well as the reference LVS3D device by means of the gravimetric method. The value of the calibration coefficient for the optical monitor was determined, and the consistency of measurements performed with both methods was assessed. Results The photometric calibration factor ranged 0.33−0.40 and was concurrent with the 0.38 value recommended by the manufacturer. The determination coefficient for the correlation between the measurement results obtained with the optical and gravimetric methods was very high (R2 = 0.91). Conclusions The presented results are promising and allow for the conclusion that the AM520 optical monitor can be used to assess individual exposure to PM2.5 and PM10 indoors. Med Pr. 2019;70(2):213–20
PL
Wstęp Istotną kwestią w ocenie ryzyka zdrowotnego jest pomiar indywidualnego narażenia, także dla zanieczyszczenia powietrza atmosferycznego drobnym pyłem. Takie możliwości dają stosunkowo proste w obsłudze mierniki optyczne. Celem pracy była ocena możliwości wykorzystywania optycznego miernika AM520 do pomiaru indywidualnego narażenia ludzi na drobny pył PM2,5 i PM10, zawarty w pomieszczeniach zamkniętych, poprzez ustalenie współczynnika kalibracji i ocenę zgodności pomiaru z metodą referencyjną. Materiał i metody W ramach badań wykonano pomiary stężeń pyłu PM2,5 i PM10 w pomieszczeniach (3 lokalizacje w powiecie gliwickim, marzec−maj 2017 r.) z wykorzystaniem aspiratora osobistego SidePak model AM520, a także z użyciem urządzenia referencyjnego LVS3D metodą grawimetryczną. Ustalono wartość współczynnika kalibracji dla optycznego miernika i zgodność pomiarów wykonanych obydwiema metodami. Wyniki Zakres wartości fotometrycznego współczynnika kalibracji kształtował się na poziomie 0,33–0,40 i był zbieżny z wartością 0,38 zalecaną przez producenta. Współczynnik determinacji dla zależności wyników uzyskanych metodą optyczną oraz grawimetryczną był bardzo wysoki i wynosił R2 = 0,91. Wnioski Prezentowane wyniki są obiecujące i pozwalają stwierdzić, że optyczny miernik AM520 może być wykorzystywany do oceny indywidualnego narażenia na drobne pyły PM2,5 i PM10 w pomieszczeniach zamkniętych. Med. Pr. 2019;70(2):213–220
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