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EN
This article presents an integrated approach to optimize the different functions in a supply chain on strategic tactical and operational levels. The integrated supply chain model has been formulated as a cost minimization problem in the form of MILP (Mixed Integer Linear Programming). The costs of production, transport, distribution and environmental protection were adopted as optimization criteria. Timing, volume, capacity and mode of transport were also taken into account. The model was implemented in the LINGO package. The implementation model and the numerical tests are presented and discussed. The numerical experiments were carried out using sample data to show the possibilities of practical decision support and optimization of the supply chain.
EN
This paper presents programs which implement the tools for interactive methods of decision support under risk proposed by M. Nowak, as a complementary way to disseminate research results. It also presents a discussion of the appropriateness of implementing quantitative method tools in the form of add-ins to MS Excel.
EN
The goal of this paper is to present a summary of various simulation methods applied to health services and to discuss several internal and external determinants for selecting a particular simulation method to study a given managerial problem within the healthcare system. The analysis presented is based on a literature survey and considers four primary simulation techniques: Monte Carlo, discrete- -event simulation, agent-based simulation and system dynamics. A range of internal and external factors are reviewed and characterised to determine the most suitable simulation technique for addressing a particular healthcare decision problem.
EN
This paper aims to briefly introduce the main idea behind the fuzzy approach and to identify the areas and problems encountered in the humanities that might profit from using this approach. Based on a short overview of selected applications of fuzzy in psychology we identify key areas in which the fuzzy approach has already been applied, and propose a list of general types of problems that the fuzzy approach may provide solutions for in psychology and the humanities in general. These types of problems are illustrated using practical examples. The benefits and possible shortcomings of using the fuzzy approach compared to classical approaches in use today are discussed. The goal of this paper is to indicate areas in research and practice in the humanities, where modern mathematical tools-in this case linguistic fuzzy modeling-have already been used or might prove promising.
EN
The paper presents a concept and the outline of the implementation of a hybrid approach to modelling and solving constrained problems. Two environments of mathematical programming (in particular, integer programming) and declarative programming (in particular, constraint logic programming) were integrated. The strengths of integer programming and constraint logic programming, in which constraints are treated in a different way and different methods are implemented, were combined to use the strengths of both. The hybrid method is not worse than either of its components used independently. The proposed approach is particularly important for the decision models with an objective function and many discrete decision variables added up in multiple constraints. To validate the proposed approach, two illustrative examples are presented and solved. The first example is the authors’ original model of cost optimisation in the supply chain with multimodal transportation. The second one is the two-echelon variant of the well-known capacitated vehicle routing problem.
EN
The article presents the problem of supply chain optimization from the perspective of a multimodal logistics provider and includes a mathematical model of multilevel cost optimization in the form of MILP (Mixed Integer Linear Programming). The costs of production, transport, distribution and environmental protection were adopted as optimization criteria. Timing, volume, capacity and mode of transport were also taken into account. The model was implemented in the LINGO ver.12. The numerical experiments were carried out using sample data to show the possibilities of practical decision support and supply chain optimization.
EN
The paper discusses the impact of the decision-making profiles on the consistency of rankings obtained by three multiple criteria methods, i.e. DR, AHP and TOPSIS. The online decision making experiment was organized, based on an electronic questionnaire which is a hybrid of the internet survey system and the decision support system. The participants of the experiment were 418 students of Polish universities. To describe the decision-making profile, the REI test was used which allows to distinguish two decision-making styles: rational and intuitive. The Kendall rank correlation coefficient was used to test the consistency of the rankings obtained by the considered methods. Using different grouping methods, the relationship between the decision profile and the ability to express one’s preferences by means of these methods, that differ in cognitive requirements, was examined. The results of the research may be helpful for supporting the decision-maker in decision processes by choosing the method that fits their profile best.
EN
Probabilistic price forecasting has recently gained attention in power trading because decisions based on such predictions can yield significantly higher profits than those made with point forecasts alone. At the same time, methods are being developed to combine predictive distributions, since no model is perfect and averaging generally improves forecasting performance. In this article, we address the question of whether using CRPS learning, a novel weighting technique minimizing the continuous ranked probability score (CRPS), leads to optimal decisions in day-ahead bidding. To this end, we conduct an empirical study using hourly day-ahead electricity prices from the German EPEX market. We find that increasing the diversity of an ensemble can have a positive impact on accuracy. At the same time, the higher computational cost of using CRPS learning compared to an equal-weighted aggregation of distributions is not offset by higher profits, despite significantly more accurate predictions.
EN
Probabilistic price forecasting has recently gained attention in power trading because decisions based on such predictions can yield significantly higher profits than those made with point forecasts alone. At the same time, methods are being developed to combine predictive distributions, since no model is perfect and averaging generally improves forecasting performance. In this article, we address the question of whether using CRPS learning, a novel weighting technique minimizing the continuous ranked probability score (CRPS), leads to optimal decisions in day-ahead bidding. To this end, we conduct an empirical study using hourly day-ahead electricity prices from the German EPEX market. We find that increasing the diversity of an ensemble can have a positive impact on accuracy. At the same time, the higher computational cost of using CRPS learning compared to an equal-weighted aggregation of distributions is not offset by higher profits, despite significantly more accurate predictions.
EN
A modern economy, based on information and knowledge, forces organizations to use IT tools that support management processes. The authors presented the concept of using cognitive agent programs to support management. These programs are able to track economic phenomena and processes taking place in the organization and its environment, conduct an in-depth analysis of information, draw conclusions and take specific actions. The features of cognitive agents allow organizations to gain a competitive advantage by making the right decisions faster at the operational, tactical and strategic level and by limiting the impact of such human characteristics as emotions or fatigue on task execution. The first part of the article outlines a characterisation of cognitive agent programs. The management areas in which cognitive agents can be used are then analysed and presented. The final part of the article provides conclusions and further research work.
PL
Nowoczesna gospodarka, oparta na informacji i wiedzy, zmusza organizacje do korzystania z narzędzi informatycznych, które wspierają procesy zarządzania. Autorzy przedstawili koncepcję wykorzystania kognitywnych programów agentowych do wspomagania zarządzania. Programy te potrafią śledzić zjawiska i procesy ekonomiczne zachodzące w organizacji oraz w jej otoczeniu, prowadzić dogłębną analizę informacji, wyciągać wnioski i podejmować konkretne działania. Cechy agentów kognitywnych pozwalają organizacjom na uzyskanie przewagi konkurencyjnej dzięki szybszemu podejmowaniu trafnych decyzji na poziomie operacyjnym, taktycznym i strategicznym oraz ograniczeniu wpływu takich cech ludzkich, jak emocje lub zmęczenie, na realizację zadań. W pierwszej części artykułu przedstawiono charakterystykę kognitywnych programów agentowych. Następnie przeanalizo- wano i zaprezentowano obszary zarządzania, w których mogą one być wykorzystywane. Ostatnia część artykułu zawiera wnioski i kierunki dalszych prac badawczych.
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PL
W dobie społeczeństwa informacyjnego i gospodarki opartej na wiedzy, w której wszystkie działania społecznie użyteczne stoją pod znakiem ”e-”, „i-” lub ”@” na czoło zagadnień wysuwają się adekwatne technologie definiowane przez autora jako Technologie Społeczeństwa Informacyjnego. Jak wiadomo, kierunki rozwoju współcześnie rozumianej informatyki coraz mocniej wiążą się z podejściem systemowym do rozwiązywania problemów definiowanych holistycznie, z uwypukleniem aspektów ich użyteczności. Pociąga to za sobą konieczność tworzenia rozwiązań, które w istocie są decyzjami o charakterze negocjacyjnym, a podejmowanymi w systemach o niepełnej informacji z rozmyciami oraz kontekstami społecznymi i psychologicznymi ze względu na wagę czynnika ludzkiego (human-centric approach). Autor na modelu objaśnia, czym są Technologie Społeczeństwa Informacyjnego.
EN
In the era of information society and knowledge-based economy, in which all social activities stand under „e-”, „i-” or „@” in the front of problems appear adequate technologies defined by the author as Information Society Technologies. As it is well known, the directions of the development of modern science are more and more related with systemic approach to solving problems defined holistically, with emphasis on aspects of their utility. This involves need to create solutions that are in fact decisions of a negotiation, and undertaken in systems with incomplete and fuzzy information and social and psychological contexts because of the importance of the human factor (human-centric approach). The author presents model which explains what Information Society Technologies are.
EN
The main goal of the paper is to build a high-level model for the design of KPIs. Currently, the development and processes of cities have been checked by KPI indicators. The authors realized that there is a limited usability of KPIs for both the users and IT specialists who are preparing them. Another observation was that the process of the implementation of Smart Cities systems is very complicated. Due to this the concept of a trigger for organizational-technological changes in the design and implementation of Smart Cities was proposed. A dedicated Model for City Development (MCD) was presented. The paper consists of four main parts. First the structures of both city and business organizations were presented. Based on that, in the second part, the processes existing in cities and business organizations were presented to show how different they are. The third part presents the role of KPIs and their limitations with the example of the IOC. The last part consists of the presentation of the model and its verification based on two city decision-making examples. The proposed design model presented herein takes into account both the city indicators and their aggregate versions for the needs of city models.
PL
Celem artykułu jest prezentacja etapów budowy wysokopoziomowych modeli projektowania wskaźników KPI (WPMPW) systemów inteligentnych miast. Dotychczasowy rozwój, badanie procesów miast i przyporządkowanie im miar może być kontrolowane za pomocą wskaźników KPI. Autorzy artykułu w trakcie procesów projektowania zwrócili uwagę na ograniczoną użyteczność tak projektowanych wskaźników dla przedstawicieli miast. Stąd też zaproponowali koncepcję WPMPW. Dla zrealizowania zaproponowanego celu artykuł został podzielony na cztery główne części. W części pierwszej przedstawiono strukturę miasta oraz przedsiębiorstwa, aby na tym tle w części drugiej przedstawić procesy funkcjonowania obu podmiotów i wykazać ich zróżnicowanie. W części trzeciej omówiono rolę KPI i ich ograniczone zastosowanie dla miast na przykładzie ich projektowania w ramie projektowej (ang. framework) Intelligent Operating Centre (IOC). W części czwartej zaprezentowano proponowany model zmian procesu projektowania. Część czwarta zawiera także weryfikację modelu na podstawie procesu projektowania dwu decyzyjnych wskaźników miasta.
EN
The aim of the paper is to present a concept of measuring the performance of city management processes by use of a concept of aggregate KPIs. In the management of organizations and, as a consequence of the use of a common design framework also in the management of cities, silo KPIs are commonly used to show the statuses of the processes of organizations/cities. Thus the question arises as to what extent aggregate KPIs, as proposed in the paper, can be used in the management processes of smart cities in place of the silo ones typical for organizations. The work is divided into four main parts. The first presents the problems of managing smart cities to introduce the reader to the problems of measuring processes and the need for aggregated measurements. The second section discusses KPIs and their place and role in management processes. The third part contains a description of the model of aggregate KPIs to support measurements of the status of city processes. In the fourth section the developed model is verified, demonstrating its applicability for city management processes. The summary includes a recommendation for the use of aggregate KPIs in the city.
PL
Celem artykułu jest prezentacja koncepcji pomiaru wydajności procesów zarządzania miastem z wykorzystaniem koncepcji zagregowanych KPI. W zarządzaniu organizacjami, a w konsekwencji stosowania wspólnych ram projektowych również w zarządzaniu miastami stosuje się powszechnie silosowe KPI obrazujące stany procesów organizacji/miasta. Pojawia się więc pytanie na ile proponowane w artykule zagregowane KPI mogą być stosowane w procesach zarządzania inteligentnymi miastami w miejsce silosowych typowych dla organizacji. Praca została podzielona na cztery główne części. W pierwszej przedstawiono problemy zarządzania inteligentnymi miastami aby wprowadzić czytelnika w problematykę pomiaru procesów i potrzeby pomiarów zagregowanych. W części drugiej omówiono wskaźniki KPI i ich miejsce i znaczenie dla procesów zarządzania. Część trzecia zawiera opis modelu zagregowanych KPI dla wsparcia pomiarów stanu procesów miasta. W rozdziale czwartym przeprowadzono weryfikacje opracowanego modelu, wykazując jego przydatność dla procesów zarządzania miastem. W podsumowaniu zawarto rekomendację dotyczące wykorzystania zagregowanych KPI w mieście.
PL
W artykule przedstawiono najnowsze trendy w ewolucji zarządzania procesami biznesowymi – zwłaszcza zastosowanie sztucznej inteligencji do wspomagania decyzji. Sztuczna inteligencja ma ogromny potencjał, by wzmocnić ludzki osąd. Uczenie maszynowe może być uważane za dodatkowe i uzupełniające rozwiązanie zwiększające i wspierające produktywność ludzi we wszystkich aspektach życia osobistego i zawodowego. Idea łączenia technologii uczenia się organizacji i zarządzania przepływem pracy została przedstawiona przez Wargitscha. Ukończone sprawy biznesowe przechowywane w pamięci organizacyjnej służą do konfigurowania nowych przepływów pracy. Wybór odpowiedniego przypadku historycznego jest poparty komponentem wnioskowania opartym na przypadkach. To środowisko informacyjne zostało uznane na świecie ze względu na znaczny wzrost wykorzystania narzędzi sztucznej inteligencji. Istnieje duża liczba kwalifikujących się do użycia i łatwo dostępnych algorytmów na potrzeby rozwoju systemów sztucznej inteligencji wspierającej procesy biznesowe. W tym artykule omówiono także, w jaki sposób można zastosować techniki automatycznego planowania (jeden z najstarszych obszarów AI), aby umożliwić nowy poziom automatyzacji i wsparcia przetwarzania. Wdrożenie sztucznej inteligencji wykazuje znaczące wyniki, szczególnie w celu uzyskania wyższego zysku. Autorzy artykułu postanowili przeanalizować ten temat i omówić stan wiedzy naukowej oraz zastosowanie sztucznej inteligencji w systemach BPM do wspomagania decyzji. Artykuł zawiera także unikalne studium przypadku z systemem produkcji wspomagania decyzji, wykorzystujące algorytmy kontrolowanego uczenia maszynowego do predykcyjnych modeli analitycznych.
EN
The paper outlines the recent trends in the evolution of Business Process Management (BPM) – especially the application of AI for decision support. AI has great potential to augment human judgement. Indeed, Machine Learning might be considered as a supplementary and complimentary solution to enhance and support human productivity throughout all aspects of personal and professional life. The idea of merging technologies for organizational learning and workflow management was first put forward by Wargitsch. Herein, completed business cases stored in an organizational memory are used to configure new workflows, while the selection of an appropriate historical case is supported by a case-based reasoning component. This informational environment has been recognized in the world as being effective and has become quite common because of the significant increase in the use of artificial intelligence tools. This article discusses also how automated planning techniques (one of the oldest areas in AI) can be used to enable a new level of automation and processing support. The authors of the article decided to analyse this topic and discuss the scientific state of the art and the application of AI in BPM systems for decision-making support. It should be noted that readily available software exists for the needs of the development of such systems in the field of artificial intelligence. The paper also includes a unique case study with production system of Decision Support, using controlled machine learning algorithms to predictive analytical models.
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