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EN
The EU’s regional policy, especially the financial assistance directed to less socially and economically developed regions in an enlarged and diversified Union of 27 member states, is a problem of both scientific and practical importance. The article focuses on theoretical foundations including the theory of regional convergence and divergence and strategy for endogenous development. It then goes on to provide critical views which have raised doubts about the effectiveness of external assistance. In this context, the EU’s programmes directed towards the development of less developed regions are very important. The author concludes that the financial assistance directed towards less developed countries and regions is legitimised and even necessary. Taking into account its scope and the scale of needs, the primary source of financial assistance should be EU funds and also the countries themselves. If greater convergence between rich and poor regions is to be achieved, a strategy for endogenous development is also needed.
EN
The article deals with the ex post evaluation of the impact of drawing funds from operational programmes to achieve convergence in the field of tourism after the Czech Republic became a member of the EU. The evaluation of the achievement of convergence or divergence among regions is based on the beta and sigma convergence indicators which enable the evaluation of the development of time series of relevant indicators (in this case, indicators in the field of tourism). This evaluation was carried out within the regions brought together under NUTS II. The investigation is the result of evaluation indicators showing the achievement of convergence within the regions in only a few cases. Convergence was therefore not proven in all cases. In some cases, there was even a tendency towards divergence among the regions. In addition, the relationship between the aid granted and the annual growth of the chosen indicators was not achieved in all cases. This indicates that relevant local factors carry more weight and have a greater impact on an area than drawing support from EU funds.
EN
The article deals with the basic trends of regions in the context of globalization and regionalizationof the world’s economy. The most important factors of regional development today are theinnovation resource areas, their institutional environment, political regimes as well as regional policy,and geographical and socio-demographic factors.
4
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Return on Sales for Companies in Eastern Poland

100%
EN
This study has been performed in order to assess the return on sales for business enterprises in Eastern Poland, compared to companies in other Polish regions, and to explore how values of this metric have changed between 2007 and 2013. The findings can be summarized as follows: in 2007-2013, the gross return on sales generated by companies in the provinces of Eastern Poland, as well as elsewhere in the country, decreased. However, the dynamics of these changes varied greatly between individual provinces. Within the whole conglomeration of the Polish provinces, certain processes of internal convergence and divergence could be distinguished. Divergent processes were identified in two provinces located in Eastern Poland, namely the Lubelskie region and the Podlaskie region, while the other three provinces in the same part of Poland (Podkarpackie, Świętokrzyskie and Warmińsko-Mazurskie) were observed to undergo convergent processes.
PL
The paper proposes a list of five „stylized facts”, regarded as the main trends with respect to the development of the global economy in the 20th c. The author’s main purpose is to answer the question whether, in the light of the contemporary growth theory and demographic forecasts, these trends are likely to continue unchanged also in the 21st c. Taking into account this theory and those forecasts, the paper offers forecasts of the average GDP per capita for both the countries of the Technology Frontier Area (TFA) and the catching-up countries. By these forecasts, the strong divergence trend of the last two centuries will be replaced by a strong convergence trend during the 21st c. Moreover, the global rate of growth of the per capita  GDP will continue to be high in the first half of the current century, but strongly declining in the second half.
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2017
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vol. 2
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issue 49
EN
This paper compares three lists of basic ‘stylized facts’ of global economic growth and proposes a list of five ‘stylized trends’ that describe the main developments of the global economy in the 20th century. The author’s main purpose is to answer the question whether, in the light of the contemporary growth theory and demographic forecasts, these trends are likely to continue in the 21st century. Considering this theory, it is argued that the global economy rate of growth of the per capita gross domestic product (GDP) is likely to continue to be high in the first half of the current century, but decline significantly in the second half. This paper offers forecasts for the average growth rates during this century, and the levels by its end, of the per capita GDP for the technology frontier area (TFA) of the world, and for the countries outside the TFA. According to these forecasts, the strong divergence trend of the 19th and 20th centuries will be replaced by a strong convergence between the TFA and the other countries during the 21st century.
EN
The negative effects of the last financial and economic crisis as seen in the deterioration of the state of public finances of the eurozone Member States highlighted weaknesses in the present institutional system. The fact that structural reforms have stopped, as well as unfavourable demographic changes, make the convergence processes and the growth of eurozone economies slow down. Increasing divergence with regard to trade balance deficits, budget deficits, investments and private savings is a significant limiting factor here. The aim of this paper is to answer the question as to whether the present situation of the eurozone economies is of a convergent or divergent nature. For this purpose the following have been analysed and assessed: the last financial crisis' consequences for eurozone countries; basic indicators related to the EU Member States' macroeconomic situation; domestic economies convergence/divergence in the eurozone - in relation to other Member States; increased divergence of regional development within a country, the so-called regional divergence; criteria of convergence; macroeconomic factors and – as mentioned before – the listed indicators resulting from the research method adopted . The method of study in this paper was the analysis of the risk of the eurozone's macroeconomic imbalance on the basis of the three-gap model.Results of the analysis showed significant imbalances within individual economies in terms of all the above mentioned parameters. This analysis showed the increasing trend related to eurozone divergence.
EN
Classical theories of language contact consider its results only as the interference of two languages leading to convergence phenomena. However, when two closely related literary languages remain in contact, divergence phenomena form new contrasts in the receiving language, showing great vitality, and prevent further convergence with the dominate language. We refer to this type of divergence, in which new phenomena arise in only one of the languages, as asymmetric. In this article, I consider asymmetric divergence at the word-formation level, using material from the Slovak and Czech literary languages, with Slovak acting as the receiving language. I consider the cases of the following divergent processes: nomina loci with the suffix -išt(e), deverbal adjectives with the suffix -l(ý), adverbs with the suffix -e, some categories of numerals and words with numerical value, deverbal nomina agentis with the suffix -teľ, and adjectives which acquire the suffix -iansk(y).
RU
Классическая теория языковых контактов рассматривает их результаты лишь как интерференцию двух языков, приводящую к явлениям конвергентного характера. Однако при продолжающихся тесных языковых контактах между двумя близкородственными литературными языками в принимающем языке, проявляющим большýю жизнеспособность, во избежание смены языка возникают дивергентные явления, которые препятствуют его еще большему сближению с языком-донором, образуя новые контрасты. Такой тип дивергенции, при которой новые явления возникают только в одном языке, а в другом сохраняется старое состояние, мы называем асимметричной. Асимметричная дивергенция в данной статье рассматривается на словообразовательном уровне на материале словацкого и чешского литературных языков, причем в этой паре в качестве принимающего языка выступает словацкий. В статье показаны дивергентные процессы, которые охватили nomina loci с суффиксом -išt(e), девербативные адъективалии с суффиксом -l(ý), наречия с суффиксом -е, некоторые разряды числительных и слова с числовым значением, девербативные nomina agentis с суффиксом -teľ, прилагательные, приобретающие суффикс -iansk(y), и т. д.
EN
The aim of the study was the evaluation of the private companies’ sales profitability in Poland in voivodeships’ dimension and the status of regional disparities in this respect. The results of the analysis can be summarized as follows. In the years 1999-2010, the level of profitability of sales of private companies in Poland increased approximately three times and regional disparities in this area have significantly decreased. This is supported by the decreasing value of the coefficient of variation, which fell from 37% in 1999 to 18% in 2010. The dynamics of changes in individual regions was very different. As a consequence, in voivodeships were observed in parallel processes of convergence and divergence, including these of marginalization nature. Processes of this nature were observed, for example, in Lubelskie, Lubuskie and Warmińsko-Mazurskie voivodeships.
EN
Research background: Information infrastructure is a very important pillar within a knowledge-based economy. The widespread use of information and communication technologies facilitates effective communication, dissemination and processing of information and knowledge. It also creates new opportunities for the effective use of knowledge and information in building competitive advantage. Information infrastructure is also a significant determinant in the development of territorial units, and therefore it affects the regional dimension of building the knowledge-based economy in Poland. Purpose of the article: The purpose of the study was to evaluate regional differentiation of the level of information infrastructure in Poland, and changes which occurred in this respect between 2010 and 2015. An attempt was made to provide an answer to the following question: Are regional differences in the level of information infrastructure in Poland increasing or decreasing, i.e. is a regional divergence or a regional convergence process taking place in this respect? Methods: Taxonomic methods were used, including linear ordering based on a synthetic variable and a method of grouping linearly-ordered objects. Findings & Value added: The regional differentiation of the level of information infra-structure in Poland has slightly decreased, which means, that a slow convergence process has taken place in this respect. This fact is confirmed by the value of the variation coefficient, which fell from a level of 17.6% in 2010 to a level of 14.4% in 2015. Convergence processes were observed in twelve provinces. In the case of seven of them, they had the nature of a catching-up effect, and in the case of the remaining five - a lagging-behind effect. Divergence processes were observed in four provinces. The Dolnośląskie and Mazowieckie Provinces distanced themselves from other areas of the country. In the Małopolskie and Opolskie Provinces a marginalisation effect was observed.
EN
Cohesion is one of the most fundamental objectives of European regional policy. The basic unit of the cohesion policy in Poland is a voivodship. However voivodships in a lot of cases do not have the characteristics of a definition of region – they are not uniform in economic, social and cultural terms. That is why it seems quite legitimate to question the internal consistency within a voivodship. The aim of the article is to assess the change in differences of the Gross Domestic Product per capita in the Lubelskie Voivodship, divided into four subregions. The assessment has been made by employing statistical analysis and models of convergence for the period of 1999-2012. The research indicates that starting from 2007 we can observe sigma and beta divergence in the area under study. The metropolitan subregion of Lublin has been developing faster than other much poorer subregions and is characterized by the highest growth rate. Therefore, referring to the discussion about a “two speed Europe” it is also possible to speak – of course being fully aware of the different problems – about a “two speed voivodship.”
PL
Spójność jest jednym z podstawowych celów europejskiej polityki regionalnej. W Polsce podstawowym podmiotem tej polityki jest województwo. Jednak w wielu przypadkach województwa nie mają charakteru regionu, czyli nie są obszarami jednolitymi z punktu widzenia gospodarczego, społecznego oraz kulturowego. Dlatego całkiem uzasadnione wydaje się pytanie o spójność wewnętrzną województw. W artykule dokonano analiz statystycznych zmian PKB per capita w czterech subregionach województwa lubelskiego i oszacowano przekrojowe i panelowe modele konwergencji dla lat 1999–2012. Z przeprowadzonych obliczeń wynika, że począwszy od 2007 roku w województwie lubelskim mamy do czynienia z sigma i beta dywergencją. Lubelski podregion metropolitalny rozwija się o wiele szybciej niż pozostałe – znacznie biedniejsze podregiony. Tym samym nawiązując do prowadzonej dyskusji o „two speed Europe” można mówić, oczywiście z pełną świadomością różnicy problemów, o „two speed voivodship”.
EN
This study attempts to show how Darwin’s 1otebooks provide evidence that the author of the Origin of the Species moved further and further away from various versions of a “system of nature” based on some complex, abstract, finalized order, by combining empirical testing and shifts in the schematic representation of the relations between taxonomic categories.
PL
Celem artykułu jest próba usystematyzowania zjawiska dywergencji zachowań konsumentów. Rozważania skupione zostaną wokół problematyki rynku turystycznego, jako przykładu rynku, na którym mogą zachodzić omawiane zjawiska. Na złożonym rynku turystycznym analiza procesów wynikających z tych procesów jest ważna z uwagi na możliwość indywidualnego podejścia do kompleksowego produktu turystycznego. Artykuł ma charakter przeglądowy, a główną metodą badawczą jest kwerenda literatury. Autorki dokonują przeglądu pojęć zjawiska dywergencji i dokonują usystematyzowania podejść wielu autorów. Zjawisko dywergencji prezentowane jest bowiem w ujęciu ogólnym, psychologicznym (tzw. myślenie dywergencyjne), a także w odniesieniu do procesów rozwoju regionalnego. Rzadziej zjawisko to omawiane jest w odniesieniu do zjawisk rynkowych. Autorki skupiają się właśnie na tym ostatnim podejściu, wykorzystując analizę rynku turystycznego, jako rynku, na którym istnieją warunki zachowań dywergen-cyjnych konsumentów. Cechy produktu turystycznego powodują występowanie zachowań dywergencyjnych w ra-mach usług świadczonych przez dany podmiot turystyczny. Jednocześnie mogą występować rów-nież zachowania konwergencyjne, czyli przeciwstawne do zjawisk dywergencyjnych (na przykład konwergencja wobec usługi noclegowej i dywergencja wobec usługi gastronomicznej danego przedsiębiorstwa hotelowego). W sytuacji nabywania gotowych pakietów, zachowania dywergencyjne nie zdarzają się tak często, jak w przypadku indywidualnego zestawiania usług przez konsumenta, który traktuje produkt turystyczny w ujęciu produktu obszaru. Omawiane procesy współistnieją ze zjawiskami charakteryzującymi współczesny rynek turystyczny po stronie popytu: prosumpcją, indywidualizacją oraz wirtualizacją konsumpcji. Zjawiskiem warunkującym te procesy jest globalizacja.
EN
This article attempts to systematize the phenomenon of divergence in consumer behaviour. Considerations are focused on problems of the tourism market, as an example of the market where the discussed phenomenon can occur. An analysis of processes resulting from these processes is important on the complex tourism market because of the possibility of an individual approach to a comprehensive tourism product. The article is a review, and literature query is the main research method. The authors present a review of the concepts of divergence and systematize approaches of many other authors. Divergence is presented generally and psychologically (i.e. ‘divergent thinking’), as well as in relation to processes of regional development. This phenomenon is rarely discussed in relation to market phenomena. The authors focus is on the latter approach, using an analysis of the tourism market as the market where there are conditions for the divergence in consumer behaviour. Features of the tourism product cause the incidence of behavioural divergence within the services provided by a tourist operator. At the same time convergent behaviour may also occur, which is the opposite to the divergence phenomena (for example the convergence of an accommodation service and divergence of a catering service provided by a particular hotel). Divergent behaviour occurs less often when a package is bought compared with a custommade offer, as the customer regards the tourism product in terms of a product from the particular area. These processes coexist with the phenomena characterizing contemporary tourist market on the demand side: prosumption, individualization and virtualization of consumption. Globalization conditions these processes.
EN
The authors employ statistical analysis to determine if Poland’s regional and local job markets are subject to convergence or divergence in macroeconomic terms. The article analyzes selected labor market variables such as productivity at the regional level, real wages and the unemployment rate. The analyses are based on data from the website www.stat.gov.pl for the 2002-2009 period and for the 2002-2007 period in the case of labor productivity. The authors examine the main theoretical aspects of the processes of real convergence and divergence. They present statistical analyses of unconditional s - and b-convergence at the regional and local levels using panel data. The article ends with a summary and a set of conclusions. The research carried out by the authors reveals that none of the analyzed labor market variables, at either the local or regional levels, was subject to s-convergence throughout the analyzed period, but in specific sub-periods both convergence and divergence processes were observed. The convergence equations estimated by the authors show that only the unemployment rate was subject to b-convergence in both regional and local terms. In the analysis at the regional level, a divergence of real wages was observed in 15 provinces, with Mazovia province being the only exception nationwide. In turn, the research did not confirm that there is a divergence of wages at the county level, the authors note. In the analyzed period, labor productivity at the regional level was not subject to either b-convergence or divergence.
EN
The objective of the study was an evaluation of the regional diversity of the innovation system in Poland and changes which took place in this realm between 2009 and 2014. In the study, numerical taxonomy methods were used. A synthetic innovation index was built with the use of the non-model method. The results of analyses may be summarised as follows: regional disparities in the level of the innovation system in Poland have slightly decreased; however, they are still at the average level. This is confirmed by the value of the variability index, which dropped from the level of 31.6% in 2009 to the level of 29.9% in 2014. Regional convergence in the area of the innovation system was accompanied by internal convergence and divergence processes occurring in parallel in provinces. Internal convergence processes were observed in 11 provinces, and internal divergence processes were observed in the remaining five provinces, yet in the case of three of them, i.e. Kujawsko-Pomorskie, Świętokrzyskie and Warmińsko-Mazurskie, such processes had a marginalising effect.
Onomastica
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2022
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vol. 66
313-328
EN
The development of onomastic theory in national and international contexts brings new impulses and pressures on the existing terminological system, including the unequal use of specific terms and the relationships between them. In Slavic hydronomastics, both established national and international terms are used, and others are continually emerging, with some in competition with existing ones. In order for the terminological system to fulfil its tasks, the long-term goal should be to harmonize it in both national and international contexts. In this paper, we discuss the development and status of hydronomastic terminology in the Slavic context. We propose and justify possibilities for the functional elimination of hierarchical and definitional disproportions of the terms of marine and oceanic toponymy, namely oceanonym, pelagonym, talasonym, bationym. In Slavic onomastics, the names of inland water objects are divided into potamonyms, limnonyms and helonyms (formerly also baltonyms). The creation and use of synonymous terms to existing established terms (*paludonym to helonym) may be considered inappropriate. Only time will reveal the usefulness of other emerging hydronomastic terms (*krenonym, *glacionym, etc.) and the functionality of their inclusion in the terminological system. The term microhydronym as a type of microtoponym in some national onomastics covers the names of smaller standing and flowing waters (in Ukrainian onomastics, the term only refers to smaller standing waters), and it is used especially in East Slavic and partly also in South Slavic onomastics. However, such an understanding does not conflict with the above classification of hydronyms according to object types. The question remains whether the principles of creating an onomastic terminological system are current and if there is also a desire to harmonize onomastic terminology in the international context.
SK
Rozvoj onomastickej teórie v národných a medzinárodných súvislostiach prináša nové impulzy i tlaky na jestvujúci terminologický systém vrátane nerovnakého používania konkrétnych termínov a vzťahov medzi nimi. V slovanskej hydronomastike sa používajú zaužívané národné aj internacionálne termíny a postupne vznikajú ďalšie. Niektoré sú v konkurenčnom vzťahu k jestvujúcim termínom. Aby mohla terminologická sústava plniť svoje úlohy, dlhodobým cieľom by malo byť zosúlaďovať ju v národnom aj medzinárodnom kontexte. V príspevku sa zaoberáme vývinom a stavom hydronomastickej terminológie v slovanskom kontexte. Navrhujeme a odôvodňujeme možnosti na funkčné odstránenie hierarchických a definičných disproporcií termínov morskej a oceánskej toponymie oceánonymum, pelagonymum, talasonymum, bationymum. V slovanskej onomastike sa používa členenie názvov vnútrozemských vodných objektov na potamonymá, limnonymá a helonymá (predtým aj baltonymá). Vznik a používanie synonymných termínov k jestvujúcim vžitým termínom (*paludonymum k termínu helonymum) možno pokladať za nevhodné. Užitočnosť ďalších predznamenávaných hydronomastických  termínov (*krenonymum, *glacionymum a i.) a funkčnosť ich zaradenia do terminologickej sústavy ukáže až čas. Termín mikrohydronymum ako typ mikrotoponyma v niektorých národných onomastikách zastrešuje názvy menších stojatých a tečúcich (v ukrajinskej onomastike len menších stojatých) vôd a vžil sa najmä vo východoslovanskej a sčasti aj južnoslovanskej onomastike. Takéto chápanie však nekoliduje s uvedenou klasifikáciou hydroným podľa typov objektov. Otázkou zostáva, či a do akej miery sú zásady tvorby onomastickej terminologickej sústavy aktuálne a či je vôľa harmonizovať onomastickú terminológiu aj v medzinárodnom kontexte.
PL
Celem opracowania jest wykazanie, że Unia Europejska w realizowanej polityce regionalnej zarzuciła tradycyjny wyrównawczy paradygmat w skali poszczególnych państw. Nawet w skali całego ugrupowania cel wyrównywania rozwoju regionalnego ma obecnie mniejsze znaczenie niż kiedyś. Podstawową metodą badań jest krytyczna analiza dokumentów unijnych – dokumentów prawnych, programów działań i sprawozdań dających mylny obraz faktów. Wnioski z badań dotyczą identyfikacji przyczyn tego, że w zdecydowanej większości państw UE doszło po 2000 r. do pogłębienia zróżnicowań regionalnych. Głównym powodem zmiany szczegółowych priorytetów wydatków przeznaczanych na politykę regionalną jest prymat strategicznych celów makroekonomicznych. Zmiany stosunku UE do problemów regionalnych są w mniejszym stopniu konsekwencją względów normatywnych, a w większym stopniu zmian otoczenia gospodarczego, przetargu politycznego w rozszerzającej się Unii, zmian świadomości społecznej oraz wzrostu znaczenia programów dekadowych w procesie decyzyjnym.
EN
The aim of the presentation is to prove that the European Union has, in its regional policy, given up its traditional compensatory paradigm on the level of particular countries. Even on the level of the whole Union, the aim of balancing regional development is today less important than it was. The basic research method used for the paper was critical analysis of EU documents: legal acts, action plans and reports that paint a misleading picture of the facts. Conclusions from the research identify reasons that, since 2000, an increase in regional disparities has occurred in the vast majority of EU countries. The main reason for changes in the specific priorities for regional policy and its financing is the primacy of strategic macroeconomic objectives. Changes in the EU’s approach to regional problems are attributable to a lesser extent to legal matters, and to a greater extent from changes in the economic environment, political situation in a growing EU, changes in society’s awareness, and the dominance of ten-year programmes in the decision-making process.
PL
Celem badań była ocena regionalnego zróżnicowania efektywności ekonomicznej przedsiębiorstw prywatnych w Polsce. Podjęto próbę udzielenia odpowiedzi na pytanie: Czy regionalne różnice w poziomie efektywności ekonomicznej przedsiębiorstw prywatnych w Polsce pogłębiają się, czy są niwelowane? Na podstawie przeprowadzonych analiz sformułowano następujące wnioski. Regionalne zróżnicowanie efektywności ekonomicznej przedsiębiorstw prywatnych w Polsce w latach 1999-2008 nieznacznie się zmniejszyło, nadal utrzymuje się jednak na poziomie średnim. Przyczyną tego jest bardzo zróżnicowana dynamika zmian zachodzących w tym zakresie w poszczególnych województwach oraz równolegle następujące procesy konwergencji i dywergencji wewnętrznej województw.
EN
The aim of the research was the evaluation of the regional disparities in the economic efficiency of private companies in Poland. An attempt to answer the following question was taken: Do the regional disparities in the economic efficiency of private companies in Poland are increasing or decreasing? On the basis of the research results one can obtain some important conclusions. Regional disparities in the economic efficiency of private companies in Poland during years 1999-2008 have slightly decreased, and still remain at the average level. It was caused by the different dynamics of economic processes occurring in voivodships and also by the processes of the internal convergence and divergence of voivodships.
EN
The development of the global economy results in the necessity to adapt companies to the expectations of the evolving market. Relevant and effective measures taken by companies should include the latest organizational and legal solutions in the areas of accounting and management. Thus, a company holistic and flexible information and control system should be developed to provide reliable information that is secured against significant distortion and to increase the role of information in decision-making processes. The main aim of the article is to present the role of financial audit and controlling as the information and control tools in economic entities and to draw attention to the areas of their divergence and convergence. To achieve the objective, critical analysis of the literature on the subject regarding financial audit and controlling was used and the methods of deduction and synthesis were applied to reach conclusions.
PL
Rozwój globalnej gospodarki determinuje konieczność dostosowania przedsiębiorstw do oczekiwań ewoluującego rynku. Relewantne i skuteczne działania jednostek powinny uwzględniać najnowsze rozwiązania organizacyjno-prawne z zakresu rachunkowości i koncepcji zarządzania. W tym celu niezbędna jest budowa holistycznego i elastycznego systemu informacyjno-kontrolnego przedsiębiorstwa, który zapewni wiarygodność informacji, zabezpieczając je przed istotnymi zniekształceniami oraz zwiększy ich znaczenie w procesie decyzyjnym. Celem głównym opracowania jest przedstawienie roli audytu finansowego i controllingu finansowego jako narzędzi informacyjno-kontrolnych jednostek gospodarczych oraz zwrócenie uwagi na obszary ich dywergencji i konwergencji. Do realizacji celu wykorzystano analizę krytyczną literatury przedmiotu z zakresu audytu i controllingu finansowego, a przy formułowaniu wniosków – metody dedukcji i syntezy.
PL
Artykuł omawia wyniki dotychczasowych badań nad konwergencją dochodową krajów Europy Środkowo-Wschodniej i Europy Zachodniej. Nawiązując do naszych wcześniejszych badań, przedstawiliśmy nowe, zaktualizowane prognozy zmniejszania luki dochodowej między Polską i pozostałymi krajami tego regionu a zachodnią „piętnastką”. W scenariuszu optymistycznym, opartym na ekstrapolacji trendów wzrostu gospodarczego z okresu 1994-2010, Polska potrzebowałaby 19 lat, licząc od 2010 r., aby osiągnąć przeciętny poziom PKB per capita wg PSN w krajach UE15. W scenariuszu umiarkowanym, opartym na średniookresowej prognozie wzrostu PKB sporządzonej przez MFW i długookresowej prognozie demograficznej Eurostatu, likwidacja istniejącej luki dochodowej byłaby możliwa w ciągu 23 lat. Gdyby lukę dochodową mierzyć według bieżących kursów walutowych, okres ten wydłużyłby się do około 40 lat. W ostrzegawczym scenariuszu, opartym na długookresowej prognozie Komisji Europejskiej, uwzględniającej dalszy spadek liczby ludności i starzenie się społeczeństwa, sygnalizujemy możliwość odwrócenia tendencji konwergencyjnych około 2040 r. i ponownego zwiększania się luki rozwojowej między Europą Środkowo-Wschodnią a Europą Zachodnią.
EN
The article shows the empirical evidence on real convergence of the CEE countries towards Western Europe. Referring to our earlier analyses, we present new and updated projections of decreasing the income gap between Poland and other CEE countries to EU-15. In the optimistic scenario, based on extrapolation of the 1994-2010 economic growth, Poland would need 19 years – starting from 2010 – to achieve the average level of GDP per capita at PPP of the EU-15. In the moderate scenario, based on the medium-term IMF projection of economic growth and the long-term Eurostat demographic projection, Poland would need 23 years to close up the income gap. If the income gap was measured at current exchange rates, that period would increase to about 40 years. In the warning scenario, based on the European Commission’s long-term forecast indicating decreasing population and further ageing of the society, we show the appearance of divergence tendencies about 2040.
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