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EN
From the 1990s. we note the considerable decrease in the fertility rate in Poland and the rise in the proportion of persons aged 60 years and more in population. The article is to demonstrate the dynamics of changes of both processes and to correlation between the two processes. For the description of the changes in the value of the fertility rate and the share of persons aged over 60 years we use a linear function of the trend, and to describe the relationship of both processes multiple linear regression.
EN
Objectives The solvent, dimethylene glycol monobutyl ether (DGBE), is a component of latex paints, inks; it is used as a degreasing agent, industrial detergent. The aim of the study was evaluating the effects of DGBE administered by gavage on the estrous cycle and given with drinking water on fertility in rats and early development of their progeny. Materials and Methods Female rats were exposed to DGBE by gavage during 8 weeks at 250, 500 or 1000 mg/kg/day. Vaginal smears were collected during the exposure and 4 weeks after its cessation. Fertility studies were performed in male and female animals exposed to in drinking water. Males were exposed for 10 weeks and then mated with females exposed before mating, during pregnancy and lactation. Young animals were observed during 3 weeks after birth. Results DGBE does not cause disturbances of the menstrual cycle in females. Parameters used to assess the general toxicity indicate that males receiving DGBE in drinking water are more sensitive to this compound than females: significantly greater, dose-dependent relative spleen weight, significant decrease in hematological parameters from 8% to 15% depending on the dose, were observed. Clinical chemistry parameters (HDL-cholesterol, BUN) and some markers of oxidative stress differ between the exposed groups and the control one, but without adverse health effect. The microscopic examination of internal organs did not reveal morphological changes in male and female rats. Conclusion The results of our study on the impact of exposure to DGBE on fertility in rats indicate that the substance administered for 9–10 weeks to females and males at a limit dose of 1000 mg/kg did not impair fertility or viability of their offspring during the first three weeks of life.
EN
In the 1990s, fertility was dropping rapidly in Poland. According to the GUS and the UN projections, low fertility may continue in the next decades. The procre- ative behaviour changes irreversibly affect the age structure of population. If the fertility level as low as it is today continued, the number of births would be ultimately reduced by almost half compared with the present numbers. However, the structure of population would be changing gradually. First the number of the pre-school children would change and then of those at school age. The high variant of the UN World Population Prospects is the only one where the number of the children aged 0–4 years is growing to the year 2020. If fertility does not change their number will, however, drop dramatically from ca 1.8 million that we have today to below 1 million in 2050. Decreasing fertility may distort the demographic structure in the long term by re- ducing the share of children and contributing to a relatively overrepresented proportion of old persons. Because of fertility falling from the 1990s and the appearance of baby boomers and baby busters, the size of the working-age population (15–64 years) will grow smaller after 2015. The aging process will also continue. The median age will grow to approx. 50 years in 2050. The dependency ratio will also increase and there will be 70 working-age persons per 100 persons aged 15–64 years, instead of slightly more than 40 that we have today.
PL
Model analizy klasyfikacji wielokrotnej (MCA) jest addytywnym modelem mającym szersze możliwości zastosowania niż, np. modele regresji liniowej. Przede wszystkim ze względu na to, gdyż zmienne w modelu MCA mogą pochodzić ze skal np. przedziałowej czy nominalnej. Poza tym, możliwe jest określenie stopnia wpływu zmiennych niezależnych zarówno przed jak i po uwzględnieniu zmiennych kontrolnych. Wreszcie, nie jest wymagane spełnienie założenia liniowej zależności pomiędzy rozważanymi zmiennymi. Artykuł przedstawia zastosowanie modelu MCA w analizie wpływu poziomu dochodu na planowaną płodność Amerykanek.
EN
The paper aims to show the way in which pension systems affect fertility rates. The author outlines the history of pension systems and traces changes in fertility. The article includes a brief overview of demographic theories and tells the reader why these approaches are inadequate in explaining fertility trends. In his analysis, Zwierzchowski makes use of the overlapping generations model (OLG) to show why and under what circumstances pensions may discourage people from having children. After further theoretical research, the author concludes that the negative influence of pension systems on fertility could be neutralized by the introduction of a public assistance program targeted at parents. The costs of such a program could be covered by those who do not have children, Zwierzchowski says. While today’s welfare state systems cover some of the costs of bringing up children, it is unclear to what extent this assistance neutralizes the negative impact of pension systems on fertility, Zwierzchowski notes.
EN
Below replacement fertility in almost all European countries and lowest low fertility in a large part of the continent are significant demographic issues that concern contemporary policy makers and social scientists. Statistical data for Slovenia show that, with the exception of the farm population, all social groups have fertility levels that are below reproduction. This paper attempts to find out which factors are the most accountable for these differences and intends to contribute to broader scientific and public debates about the reasons for very low fertility in the ‘industrialized world’. The results of the analysis based on the survey "Generations and Gender Relationships on Slovenian Farms" (2007) indicate that differences in fertility behaviour among the farm and other parts of the Slovenian population are more related to the structural than cultural characteristics of the people.
EN
The aging of population is largely caused by falling fertility. To find out how fertility affects the share of the elderly people in the population, four variants of the UN World Population Prospects 2010 for Poland and Europe were examined, as well as selected indicators of population aging. The relatively high fertility and comparatively short life expectancy in Poland until the end of 1980s explain why its population aged much more slowly than other populations in Europe. In the last two decades the share of the elderly people kept increasing, mostly because of the deep decline in the number of births. For almost a decade now Poland has been one of the demographically old countries, although the aging process is relatively less pronounced in Poland than in Italy or Germany. In the medium variant of the UN forecast Polish fertility will be growing for the next few decades, but its level will not be high enough to ensure the minimum population replacement. Only in the high variant its growth will lead to rates of population reproduction higher than the minimum level. This situation might take place as early as the first half of the 2020s. The analysis of particular indicators illustrating the progress of demographic aging leads to a conclusion that even high fertility will not rejuvenate the age structure of Polish population, but it may considerably slow down the process of its aging.
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EN
Research background: The decreasing fertility rate is a serious problem for policymakers as it affects the pension system as well as private consumption and savings. It seems reasonable to analyze whether fiscal policy may mitigate the low birthrate problem. Purpose of the article: In this paper we strive to answer the question whether fiscal incentives spur fertility if parents are rational. Methods: A theoretical economic model of utility maximization is applied to analyze the impact of fiscal policy on fertility. The conclusions are based on the analysis of comparative statics simulation calibrated for actual data from Poland. Findings & Value added: The results indicate that a substantial fertility effect can be obtained by raising subsidies for children or general benefits for families.
PL
The main purpose of the article is to establish the level of knowledge about fertility among female students of the University of Zielona Góra. The presented analyses used part of the empirical material from the project “The role of fertility assumptions in the formation of procreative intentions” carried out on a representative sample of full-time female students of the University of Zielona Góra. The respondents have the highest level of fertility knowledge related to changes in women’s reproductive abilities with age. However, it should be noted that their awareness in this aspect is rather medium. For the most part, they correctly identify the age at which the woman is most fertile and the age at which her ability to conceive is significantly reduced. However, the vast majority of respondents are convinced that the process of reducing the ability of women to become pregnant begins later than in reality. As for the other two dimensions of fertility knowledge – the dimension related to estimating the chances of getting pregnant and the dimension related to infertility – the women are characterised by their low or average level. Most of the respondents overestimate the chances of pregnancy of a young woman (up to 25 years old), who had unprotected intercourse at the time of ovulation and a woman who, aged 25–30, had unprotected intercourse regularly during a period of one year. More than half of female students are aware of the scale of infertility in Poland, but at the same time most of them overestimate the effectiveness of in vitro fertilisation. The results obtained are similar to those obtained by researchers from other countries. Therefore, it is necessary to postulate including to the educational program the knowledge about the specificity of the human body, which is characterised by limited ability to conceive a child and changes in the fertility level of women appearing with age.
EN
The article examines the relationship between housing affordability and fertility in the Czech Republic after 1989. An analysis of national data suggests that improving housing affordability might be a factor behind the rise of fertility that has been observed since the beginning of the 2000s. The regional variation in fertility is generally lower than the regional variation of indicators of both housing affordability and the economic situation. Although the number of children born increased noticeably, total fertility did not increase at the same pace, and its regional patterns remained rather stable. The most important factor that influences the regional variation in fertility is the education of women, particularly young women. When the education of women is controlled for, housing affordability plays an important role in explaining the regional variation in fertility – both the total fertility rate and the timing of childbearing.
EN
A human person is a sexual being. Sexuality, connected with fertility in its very nature, is one of the fundamental spheres of married life. Although sexuality and fertility accompany men and women throughout their whole lives, the fi rst years of married life are a special time of experiencing those phenomena. This time is usually connected with positive experiences, which properly shape and develop the couple’s relationship, and express it in the fullness of its wealth. However, the sexual relationship may also be the source of multi-fi eld crises which arise in the fi rst years of married life, and particularly after the birth of the couple’s fi rst child. Accompanying married couples in overcoming various crises is one of the important tasks which Pope Francis gives to the Church in the Apostolic Exhortation Amoris Laetitia. The aim of the present paper is to try to see the role and meaning of the centers teaching fertility awareness in accompanying married couples in crises connected with the sphere of sexuality and fertility during the fi rst years of married life.
PL
Osoba ludzka jest istotą płciową. Seksualność, związana z płodnością, jest jedną z podstawowych sfer życia małżeńskiego. Chociaż seksualność i płodność towarzyszą mężczyznom i kobietom przez całe życie, pierwsze lata życia małżeńskiego są szczególnym czasem ich doświadczania. Ten czas jest zwykle związany z pozytywnymi przeżyciami, które właściwie kształtują i rozwijają związek i wyrażają go w pełni jego bogactwa. Jednak seksualność może być również źródłem kryzysów, które pojawiają się na różnych płaszczyznach życia w pierwszych latach małżeństwa, a zwłaszcza po urodzeniu pierwszego dziecka. Towarzyszenie małżeństwom w przezwyciężaniu różnych kryzysów jest jednym z ważnych zadań, jakie papież Franciszek zaleca Kościołowi w swojej adhortacji apostolskiej Amoris laetitia. Celem niniejszej pracy jest próba dostrzeżenia roli i znaczenia poradni rozpoznawania płodności w towarzyszeniu parom małżeńskim w sytuacjach kryzysowych związanych ze sferą seksualności i płodności w pierwszych latach życia małżeńskiego.
EN
In this publication it is analyzed how premarital sex influences postponing a⁠ decision to marry and decision to have children. Basic reasons of postponing marriage are also presented. It is proved that premarital sex delays such a⁠ developmental task as selection of the spouse. It is explained that the decision to marry is influenced by the following factors resulting from premarital sex: cultural acceptance of sex outside marriage, trauma due to interruption of previous sexual relations. Longer period of fertility in case of men than women is also considered.
EN
The article is devoted to the analysis of the preliminary results of the “Fam­ily 500+” cash benefit introduced in Poland in the second quarter of 2016. The results are considered on a theoretical and comparative basis from the point of view of the politically declared objectives of the cash benefit, especially the radical reduction of child poverty and the improvement of fertility. The analysis is based on the BBGD unit data (2015 and 2016), EU-SILC data, including 2016, and data from the OECD database (Family Database). Preliminary results show that the 500+ benefit succeeded in reducing income poverty in many families, improving the structure of consumption for the needs of the whole family, but, at the same time, increased the tendency of mothers to leave the labour market, which is a phenomenon that had already started in Poland before the implementation of the 500+ benefit.
EN
This paper examines the congruity between mothers' preferences and actual experiences when raising preschool children, using data on mothers of reproductive ages (18–49) from the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Poland from the International Social Survey Programme (ISSP) (1994, 2002, and 2012). The findings show that (i) with one exception, in all the countries and years, mothers whose preferences were congruent with their actual employment statuses outnumbered those whose preferences and employment statuses were incongruent; (ii) whereas Czech mothers improved their situations during the period (the congruity increases), Polish mothers - who began the period with the highest congruity - experienced a decrease in congruity, while Hungarian mothers showed the lowest congruity and saw a slight improvement in their situations (they achieved more congruity); and (iii) women who had their children during the communist regimes were more likely to experience incongruity because they worked more than they desired to, while women who became mothers during the post-communist period were more likely to experience congruity when they stayed at home, but they were also more likely to experience incongruity because they were inactive and considered working desirable. Therefore, the results confirm similar trends and diverging paths among the three countries. The high degree of incongruity between preferences and actual experiences is a sign of the problems faced by mothers attempting to reconcile work and family life and also impacts other phenomena, such as female employment, gender equality and fertility.
EN
Metropolitan areas are the poles of economic growth of regions and countries. These areas are characterized by specific development cycles, which are related to the direction of population migrations. Accordingly, there is a phase of urbanisation, suburbanisation, disurbanisation and re-urbanisation. Studies show that most Polish metropolitan areas are undergoing the process of suburbanisation, which means the movement of population from the central city to its suburban area. This process entails a number of demographic, social and economic consequences. One of the main demographic consequences of suburbanisation is the change in the structure of the central city and its suburban area. The reason for this is the fact that migrations from the centre are usually undertaken by young people. Thus, the number of inhabitants of the central city declines and the population is ageing. Migrants from the city bring new patterns of social and demographic behaviour, which may be shown in, among others, the tendencies of indigenous people to change the traditional family model. This paper attempts to determine the reproductive behaviour patterns of the population of the Krakow Metropolitan Area (KMA) in the light of the survey. The surveys were conducted in selected KMA municipalities in 2013. The analysis of qualitative data, divided into two categories of respondents: immigrant and indigenous inhabitants, will give an answer to the question, what are the reproductive attitudes of the population and how they may affect the further development of these areas?
EN
Since the beginning of the 1990s profound changes have occurred in reproductive behaviour in Central and Eastern Europe. They involve a sudden fall in the fertility rate, accompanied by an increase in the age of mothers giving birth to their first child, and a growth in the percentage of extramarital births. A similar course of changes in reproductive behaviour was observed almost a decade earlier in the countries of Southern Europe (Greece, Spain and Italy), and at the beginning of the 1960s in the countries of Western Europe (e.g. France). The aim of the study is to show the spatial changes in the fertility pattern in Poland compared to the selected European countries - Italy, Spain and France. Since new fertility patterns take hold most quickly among the inhabitants of large cities, as a result of the weaker effects of tradition and earlier formation of social norms owing to suburbanisation processes, the analysis of changes in reproductive behaviours will be conducted in the context of changes in urbanisation level. The time frame of the study encompasses an extended duration, especially taking into account the period of 1970-2010. For the comparison of large cities, data from 2010 or the nearest available were examined.
EN
This study analyses and compares the fertility behaviour and childbearing plans of Polish migrant families in Ireland and those of their counterparts – families in Poland. The study has a comparative and explanatory character and applies both quantitative and qualitative methods. The analysis is based on the author’s own data collected from an online survey of Polish family units in Ireland in 2014 and compared with secondary data on families in Poland retrieved from the 2011 Gender and Generation Survey (GGS). My research reveals fertility postponement and fewer families with children among migrant families; nonetheless, migrant parents have more children than their counterparts in Poland. The results highlight the significance of socio-economic and institutional contexts. The study also reveals a dichotomisation of fertility strategies within the migrant population, with distinct differences in the number of children, transition age to parenthood, and further fertility intentions between migrants who became parents in Poland and those who did so after the move. The results also provide insights into the childbearing motivations and fertility patterns of recent Polish migrants and contribute to the discussion of migrants’ fertility in general.
EN
The phenomenon of population aging exists in many developed countries. Poland is one of the countries which is faced this problem. Due to the rapidly progressing demographic changes, the aging of the Polish society is becoming increasingly important challenge for the economics. One consequence of the growth in the number of elderly people in society is a greater demo-graphic burden, that without significant reforms may lead to a deterioration of the economic situation throughout the country. The aim of this article is to present four areas (health care, labor market, lifelong learning, family policy), which should address the most important changes, aimed at reducing the burden of aging population on the economy. Data published by the Central Statistical Office of Poland and literature studies were used to the analyze.
PL
Tło badań: Zjawisko niskiej dzietności w Polsce stanowi kluczowy obiekt analiz demograficznych. W ostatnich latach obserwuje się nie tylko zmiany w modelach prokreacyjnych i rodzinnych, ale także w strukturze wiekowej społeczeństwa. Jest to szczególnie istotne w kontekście starzenia się populacji, które staje się coraz bardziej widoczne. Starzejące się społeczeństwo niesie za sobą liczne wyzwania, takie jak wzrost obciążenia systemów opieki zdrowotnej, zmniejszenie aktywnej siły roboczej i konieczność zabezpieczenia odpowiednich środków na emerytury. Mimo że wiele osób pragnie mieć potomstwo, powstrzymują się od podjęcia takiej decyzji, a przyczyny tego wyboru są zróżnicowane. W związku z tym istotne jest przeprowadzenie analizy czynników determinujących dzietność w Polsce, z uwzględnieniem aspektów zarówno ekonomicznych, jak i społecznych. Konieczne jest zrozumienie, w jaki sposób sytuacja ekonomiczna, warunki na rynku pracy oraz zmiany w strukturze społecznej wpływają na proces podejmowania decyzji dotyczących posiadania dzieci. Cel artykułu: Artykuł ma na celu analizę dzietności w Polsce w okresie 2004-2020. Wykonane badania umożliwią identyfikację czynników wpływających na obserwowany stan niskiej zastępowalności pokoleń oraz określenie ich intensywności. Metodologia/Metody/Źródła danych: Dane wykorzystane w artykule pochodzą z Głównego Urzędu Statystycznego i obejmują lata 2004-2020. Praca opiera się na literaturze z zakresu demografii i ekonometrii. W analizie dzietności w Polsce zastosowano trzy metody statystyczne: model Klasycznej Metody Najmniejszych Kwadratów (KMNK), estymator o efektach ustalonych (FE) oraz estymator o efektach losowych (RE). Następnie przeprowadzono analizę dzietności w przekroju regionalnym, dzieląc Polskę na 16 jednostek administracyjnych (województw). Do analizy wykorzystano model panelowy, a wyniki poddano testom Walda, Breuscha-Pagana i Hausmana w celu porównania rezultatów uzyskanych z różnych modeli. Wyniki/Wnioski: Wyniki analizy wskazują, że sytuacja ekonomiczna i rynek pracy mają znaczący wpływ na decyzję o posiadaniu dzieci w Polsce. Trend niskiej dzietności, chociaż obserwuje się pewien jej wzrost, wciąż jest charakterystyczny dla kraju w porównaniu z innymi państwami UE. Analiza czynników determinujących dzietność jest istotna dla zrozumienia decyzji młodego pokolenia Polaków w kwestii posiadania potomstwa.
EN
Research background: The phenomenon of low fertility in Poland is a vital subject of demographic analysis. In recent years, not only have there been changes in procreative and family models, but also in the age structure of society. This is particularly significant in the context of population ageing, which is becoming increasingly evident and brings numerous challenges such as increased burden on healthcare systems, a decrease in the active workforce, and the need to secure adequate retirement funds. Despite the desire to have children, many individuals refrain from making such a decision, and the reasons for this choice are diverse. Therefore, it was essential to conduct an analysis of the factors determining fertility in Poland, considering both the economic and social aspects. Understanding how the economic situation, labour market conditions, and changes in social structure impact on the decision-making process regarding childbearing is essential. Purpose of the paper: The objective of this article was to analyse fertility rates in Poland for the period 2004-2020. The conducted research identified the factors influencing the observed state of low generational replacement and determining their intensity. Methodology/Methods/Data sources: The data used in this article were sourced from the Central Statistical Office and covered the years 2004-2020. The study was based on literature concerning demography and econometrics. Three statistical methods were applied in the analysis of fertility in Poland: the Classical Method of Least Squares (CMLS) model, the Fixed Effects (FE) estimator, and the Random Effects (RE) estimator. Fertility analysis was conducted at regional level by dividing Poland into 16 administrative units (voivodeships). A panel model was employed for the analysis, and the results were subjected to Wald, Breusch-Pagan, and Hausman tests to compare the outcomes obtained from different models. Findings: The results of the analysis indicate that the economic situation and the labour market significantly influence the decision to have children in Poland. The trend of low fertility, although showing some increase, is still characteristic of the country compared to other EU nations. The analysis of the factors determining fertility is vital for understanding the decisions of young generations of Poles regarding parenthood.
EN
In the developed countries, the age of becoming pregnant and giving birth to the first child is constantly delayed. This trend is also present in Poland. Many women postpone their decision about becoming mothers and some of them do not decide to have a child at all. An important question concerns reasons for postponing the decision or resignation from motherhood. The study was conducted in a group of 247 women aged 20 to 46 years (M = 29.67, SD = 4.54). The participants filled in the Polish version of Attitudes to Fertility and Childbearing Scale (AFCS), which enables the assessment of attitudes in terms of the three components: Importance for the future, Hindranceat present and Female identity. Higher average scores on Hindrance at present were obtained mainly by those women who were younger, single or living in an informal relationship, and those who studied and worked at the same time. The component Importance for the future was relevant for instance for married women. Female identity appeared important for married women living in rural areas. No statistically significant differences were found for level of education or financial status.
PL
W krajach wysokorozwiniętych wiek zajścia w ciążę i urodzenia pierwszego dziecka stale się wydłuża. Tendencja ta obecna jest również w Polsce. Kobiety odkładają decyzję o zostaniu matkami, część z nich w ogóle nie decyduje się na dziecko. Pojawia się pytanie o przyczyny odkładania decyzji lub rezygnacji z macierzyństwa. W badaniach wzięło udział 247 kobiet w wieku 20–46 lat (M = 29,67; SD = 4,54). Uczestniczki wypełniły polskojęzyczną wersję Skali do Badania Postaw Wobec Płodności i Posiadania Dzieci, która pozwala na ocenę postaw w zakresie trzech wymiarów: Płodność – istotna w przyszłości, Płodność – przeszkoda w chwili obecnej oraz Płodność – tożsamość kobiety. Wyższe średnie wyniki w wymiarze Płodność – przeszkoda w chwili obecnej uzyskiwały przede wszystkim młodsze, wolne lub pozostające w nieformalnym stałym związku, łączące pracę i studia kobiety. Płodność – istotna w przyszłości była ważna m.in. dla uczestniczek pozostających w związkach małżeńskich. Płodność – tożsamość kobiety okazała się ważna dla kobiet mieszkających na wsi i pozostających w związku małżeńskim. Sytuacja finansowa, podobnie jak wykształcenie nie okazały się czynnikami, które w istotny statystycznie sposób różnicowałyby badane kobiety w zakresie postaw wobec płodności i posiadania dzieci.
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