Long-run impact of economic growth on fertility trends is ambiguous and sensitive for in-time variations. Noticeably, over last decades, economic growth has led to significant falls in total fertility rates in many countries. However, recently, in high-income economies a kind of ‘fertility rebound’ emerged (Gold-stein, 2009; Luci and Thevenon, 2011; Day, 2012), which supports the hypothesis that reversal trends in total fertility rates are mainly attributed to economic growth. The paper unveils the relationship between total fertility rate changes and economic growth in 18 selected countries with fertility rebound observed, over the period 1970–2011, and detects the GDP-threshold at which the fertility rebound emerged. To report on the relationship we deploy longitudinal data analysis assuming non-linearity between examined variables. The data applied are exclusively derived from World Development Indicators 2013. Our main findings support the hypothesis on U-shaped relationship between the total fertility rate and economic growth in analyzed countries in 1970-2011. Along with the previous, we project the minimum level of GDP per capita (GDP-threshold) when the fertility rebound takes place.
The cross-sectional association between female labour force participation rates and fertility in developed countries shifted from negative to positive during the 1980s. Ever since then, researchers have applied different statistical approaches; therefore, the present study re-evaluates the results by applying a distinct strategy to the data from2000 to 2020 for 32 countries belonging to the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). Specifically, the data analysis discussed here implemented the so-called „unified“ model, thereby extending the analysis beyond the limitations of the fixed effects (FE) method; namely, by decomposing coefficients within (time-series) and between (cross-sectional) countries‘ effects, the study increased the explanatory power of our statistical model on the relation between fertility level and female labour force participation rate. Eventually, the selected statistical approach has shown the potential to offer a better interpretation of results in comparison to previous studies. Finally, this study confirmed the persistence of a negative trend in a time-series association between labour force participation and fertility.
This article muslim has been made an attempt to political science analysis of demographic aspect of the presence of muslims in France, and also tried to make a correlation analysis of demographic change of this community with respect to demographic trends in selected muslim countries. For the implementation of these objectives, the research, the author takes the difficult subject of determination of the number of muslims in France, the demographic structure of this community, a fertility rate of muslim women in this country, as well as the fertility rate of women in certain muslim countries. At the end the author indicates the cause of the decline in the fertility of muslim women in France and in some muslim countries.
The aim of this article is to take a closer look at national Israeli policies in the domain of population growth. Demography plays a powerful role in understanding the Israeli society and the changes it has experienced over time. The “demographic struggle” presents the constant effort of the Jewish population to maintain, regardless of the costs, the numerical majority of the Jews in Israel. The central means to achieve the demographic dominance are the immigration policies and fertility rate, therefore the control over these factors of social life is of primary importance to the Israeli authorities. The methods of managing and influencing the two demographic indicators are discussed in the article in details, since the differences between the Arab and Jewish communities in this area are crucial. The article presents also briefly the role of demography in constituting ethnic democracy in Israel
The article aims to analyze the socio-economic impact of the governmental support program “Family 500+”. This program consists in paying monthly benefits to parents bringing up children. In this way, it influences the growth of private consumption and contributes to the stimulation of the economic growth. However, the main goal of the program is to improve the fertility rate and social conditions of large families. In particular, the elimination of the phenomenon of extreme poverty. The article will attempt to answer the question to what extent the main objectives of the program have so far been implemented. In addition, possible changes to the design of the program will be considered so that it can meet its objectives more effectively.
Total fertility rate in Poland has been below replacement level since 1990. The paper presents selected pro-natalist instruments of family policy, introduced in the last five years: maternity, paternity and parental leave, services for children under three, large family card, parental benefit and financial aid for families which raise children up to the age of 18. The author presents the number of completed services in voivodeships and compares them with the relevant statistics and the total fertility rate.
PL
Od 1990 roku do chwili obecnej współczynnik dzietności w Polsce przyjmuje wartości poniżej progu reprodukcji ludności. Artykuł przedstawia wybrane instrumenty polityki rodzinnej, wprowadzone w ciągu ostatnich pięciu lat, mające służyć wzrostowi demograficznemu. Są to: urlop macierzyński, ojcowski i rodzicielski, instytucje opieki nad dziećmi do lat 3, Karta Dużej Rodziny, świadczenia rodzicielskie i świadczenie wychowawcze. W tekście zostały porównane dane liczbowe dotyczące zrealizowanych świadczeń z odpowiednimi danymi statystycznymi i współczynnikami dzietności w poszczególnych województwach.
The article brings out a special attention paid by historians and demographers to the smallest demographic and social unit after the second world war. It resulted from the will to understand the transformation of the whole society in the past, which to a certain degree became possible thanks to the analyses of the ancient family structures, including the changes they had undergone and the trends that had been identified. Against the background of the basic achievements of the West-European historiography of historical demography, the author also emphasises a significant development of the Polish research in this sphere, yet he notices that it has been achieved mainly by the efforts of individual researchers, hardly linked to any institution. Generally speaking, in spite of some revival of the last 30 years the knowledge of the basic biological function of the family, i.e. fertility, is still not satisfactory. That is why the author stresses the need to intensify research on demographic structures of families in Polish lands from the beginning of the 20th century and presents its programme. At the same time he underlines that now some former restrictions, which somehow hindered Polish research in which L. Henry’s method was used, have disappeared. At the moment, there are no bigger obstacles to track down hundreds of register books of births, deaths, marriages and baptisms, as well as marriage records of the 19th century. What is more, in the era of laptops and other digital carriers, there are no restrictions as far as equipment is concerned; information may be collected and processed in no time. The author reminds that for the last 25 years there have appeared only a few valuable studies on the basic biological function of the family, its fertility (inter alia Cezary Kuklo, Krzysztof Makowski, Agnieszka Zielińska). The article indicates that future studies on demographic and historical statistics of the family should fall back on the research potential included in L. Henry’s method to a much wider degree. Thanks to a more common use of the method procreative attitudes of the inhabitants who lived in Polish lands before the end of the 19th century should become more wid ely known, and – at the same time – make it possible to answer the question whether the procreative strategies were conscious or not. Future investigations, according to the author, should also take into consideration the problem of mortality. In the presented research programme what has been strongly stressed is the postulate of a more detailed description of the smallest social cell through its socio-economic – as well as religious and ethnic – differentiation, wherever it is possible. The programme also takes into account the need to describe the relations between spouses and between parents and children, and other members of the ancient households.
Thesis: Present‑day radical fertility changes are determined by socio‑cultural factors and will have consequences for the economy and its development potential. Current changes in the fertility rate in Poland are the subject of many discussions and arguments. It means that, among the challenges for researchers, firstly, they have to understand the background to this issue and identify the factors influencing procreative decisions. Secondly, they should demonstrate how population growth changes and will change society, and the economy in particular. Our paper analyzes the mentioned research problem by engaging tools from sociology and cultural studies to examine the influence of norms, values, beliefs, attitudes and behaviours on the changing level of birth rate and its economic consequences for the current and future functioning of the social order. The purpose of the analyses is to deepen and compare the results of findings from such disciplines as demography, statistics and economics, and present them against a background of socio‑cultural transformations, which seem to be very important in the context of Polish females and males making procreative decisions. Additionally, the paper presents links between fertility and economic development, which often seem to be ignored or underestimated.
The paper discusses selected issues related to fiscal burden placed on the Polish families in light of concerns over Poland’s falling fertility rate which belongs to the lowest in the UE and the world. The author claims that one of the major reasons for that is an inefficient support to the families with children. This article analyses whether the fiscal system in Poland distinguishes people who bear significant costs associated with raising children. It presents Poles’ tax burden on labour income through the example of the largest group of taxpayers paying taxes under the relevant income tax scale, the scope of direct financial support to Polish families, as well as their fiscal burden associated with direct taxes.
The aim of this paper is to examine a complex pattern of mutual interdependence between Unified Growth Theory (subroutine) and the evolution of the entire field of economic growth theories (main routine) from a philosophical and methodological perspective. The analysis utilises the recently introduced concept of research routine (and respectively, subroutine) aimed at an explanation of the evolution of scientific research. The study identifies the inuflence of the subroutine (and its specific concept of demographic transition) on the core concepts of the main routine: human capital, population growth and learning. The results are based on network analyses of extensive bibliometric evidence from Scopus and the Web of Knowledge.
The following article discusses spectrum of problems interconnected with demographics and its consequences which are already present and waiting to be addressed by international community. Author presents and discusses global demographic changes, fertility rate in developing countries, demographic issues of rich and highly developed ones and international labour migration. The article is provided with data from UN and World Bank reports, as well as other organisations like Eurostat etc. Geographically, the author is mostly focused on demographical problems of Africa and European Union.
PL
Niniejsza praca traktuje o szeroko pojętej tematyce bezpieczeństwa ludnościowego, wskazując na wyzwania, które czekają na reakcję, a z którymi społeczność międzynarodowa zetknie się jeszcze w XXI wieku. Autor wyszczególnia i analizuje takie problemy, jak: globalne zmiany demograficzne, przyrost naturalny w krajach rozwijających się, problemy demograficzne państw rozwiniętych oraz problematykę związaną z migracjami zarobkowymi z państw rozwijających się do państw rozwiniętych. Wśród wykorzystanych źródeł znajduje się szereg raportów instytucji takich jak ONZ czy Bank Światowy, dotyczących kondycji demograficznej różnych regionów świata ze szczególnym uwzględnieniem Afryki i Europy.
For three decades, the fertility rate in Poland has been below the level of simple replacement of generations, and long-term demographic forecasts do not indicate any immediate improvement in this respect. The measures taken in recent years as part of a pro-family policy have proved to be ineffective. This also applies to the “Family 500+” programme introduced in 2016. After an initial increase noted between 2016 and 2017, the fertility rate dropped again. The article attempts to answer the question as to why the programme, defined as a pronatalistic one, does not yield the expected results despite the announcements of its creators. The analysis of the causes of this phenomenon takes into account both demographic conditions, resulting from the decreasing number of women of reproductive age, and socio-cultural factors, including those resulting from the second demographic transition, changes in family and fertility models, which are reflected in preferences and attitudes towards procreation.
PL
Od trzech dekad wskaźnik dzietności w Polsce utrzymuje się poniżej poziomu prostej zastępowalności pokoleń, a długoterminowe prognozy demograficzne nie zapowiadają rychłej poprawy w tym obszarze. Podejmowane w ostatnich latach w ramach polityki prorodzinnej działania okazały się mało efektywne. Dotyczy to również wprowadzonego w 2016 roku programu „Rodzina 500+”. Po początkowym wzroście wskaźnika dzietności w latach 2016-2017, ponownie nastąpił jego spadek. W artykule podjęto próbę odpowiedzi na pytanie, dlaczego program, definiowany jako pronatalistyczny, mimo zapowiedzi jego twórców, nie przynosi oczekiwanych rezultatów. Analizując przyczyny tego zjawiska, uwzględniono zarówno uwarunkowania demograficzne, wynikające m.in. z malejącej liczebności kobiet w wieku rozrodczym, jak również czynniki społeczno-kulturowe, w tym będące efektem drugiego przejścia demograficznego, zmiany w realizowanych modelach rodziny i dzietności, które znajdują odzwierciedlenie w preferencjach i postawach wobec prokreacji.
W artykule autorka podejmuje próbę uchwycenia subiektywnych i obiektywnych wyznaczników jakości życia mieszkańców województwa lubuskiego. W swej analizie skupia uwagę na ocenie poziomu życia rodzin, uwarunkowaniach decyzji matrymonialnych, sposobach realizacji ról małżeńsko-rodzinnych, a także ocenach polityki społecznej w Polsce i oczekiwaniach w stosunku do niej kierowanych. Podstawą empiryczną artykułu są rezultaty sondażu przeprowadzonego w roku 2006 na próbie imiennej reprezentatywnej dla dorosłych mieszkańców województwa lubuskiego. W analizie autorka wykorzystała także rezultaty 29 wywiadów narracyjnych przeprowadzonych w roku 2008.
EN
It is attempted in the article to capture the subjective and objective indicators of the quality of life of Lubuskie province inhabitants. In the analysis, particular attention is paid to the assessment of families' living standards, determinants of matrimonial decisions, ways in which the marital/family roles are realized, and the assessment of social policy in Poland as well as the expectations regarding that policy. The empirical basis of the article comes from the results of a survey conducted in 2006 on a representative random sample of adult inhabitants of Lubuskie province. The results of 29 narrative interviews conducted in 2008 are also used in the analysis.
Celem niniejszego artykułu jest próba oceny funkcjonowania programu „Rodzina 500+”, który wszedł w życie 1 kwietnia 2016 roku na mocy Ustawy o pomocy państwa w wychowywaniu dzieci (Dz.U. z 2018 r. poz. 2134). Program w swoich założeniach miał spełnić trzy zadania: ograniczenie ubóstwa, poprawę sytuacji materialnej polskich rodzin oraz zwiększenie dzietności społeczeństwa. Na podstawie dostępnych danych dokonano porównania Programu „Rodzina 500+” z innymi systemami wsparcia dla rodzin w Unii Europejskiej. Dokonano również oceny wybranych wskaźników ekonomicznych w Polsce oraz w Unii Europejskiej w latach 2015 – 2018.
EN
The aim of this article is an attempt to evaluate the functioning of the "Family 500+" programme, which came into force on 1 April 2016 as the Act on State aid in bringing up children (Journal of Laws of 2018, item 2134). The assumptions of the programme were to fulfil three tasks: reducing poverty, improving the financial situation of Polish families and increasing the fertility rate of the society. On the basis of available data, the "Family 500+" programme was compared with other support systems for families in the European Union. Selected economic indicators in Poland and the European Union in the years 2015-2018 were also evaluated.
The objectives of this paper are: (i) presentation of theoretical aspects of migration and migrant crisis in the EU in 2015 (its causes, the Vysehrad Group’s position on the issue and the status of the relocation process, including the arrangements on strengthening the role and enhancing operating capacity of Frontex); (ii) comparative analysis of selected demographic indicators for individual EU countries (including Poland) / EU-28 in the context of the migrant crisis: fertility rate, mother’s mean age at first birth, death rate and population in 1998-2018 together with the population forecast until 2049; (iii) discussion of the following data for Poland: emigration-immigration migration balance in 2006-2017 and labour deficit; (iv) presentation of Poland’s migration policy (its formal aspects, threats and opportunities, directions). The research objective is an answer to the question of what the causes were of the 2015 migrant crisis and steps taken by the EU in this scope; and what directions Poland’s migration policy should take. The analysis assumes the following research hypothesis: “a failure to introduce and implement a deliberate, multiyear migration policy, addressing the existing and future challenges will result in Poland’s population decreasing by 3.44 million in 2019-2049”. The hypothesis was verified through presenting Eurostat’s forecasts with the simultaneous definition of required directions of Poland’s migration policy after 2018, that is: (i) deceleration of the decrease rate for Poland’s population through: increase in the replacement rate, reduction of the death rate (to at most the EU-28 average) and decrease in mother’s mean age at first birth; (ii) striving to obtain a positive migration balance (with emigration reduction prioritised); (iii) support for remigration; (iv) preventing illegal immigration; (v) implementation of simple mechanisms and procedures for employing foreigners in Poland, with resulting reduction of labour deficit; (vi) integration of foreigners. The hypothesis has been verified to be true. The following research methods were applied: the historical method (origin, progress, meaning), content analysis (research into documents), as well as the quantitative and qualitative method (numeric data analysis).
Many people are going to face the problem of low pensions in the near future. The low birth rate is one of the reasons for the breakdown of the pension system. The situation of negative natural population growth has been present in Poland for many years. Until now, efforts have mainly been made to address this issue through social transfers. There have been no systemic solutions to increase fertility rates in Poland. In this article the authors aim to highlight that the solution to the problem that discourages Poles from having children is not solely a financial matter. A comprehensive examination of this issue reveals the origins of this phenomenon. They also suggest solutions that should be implemented soon to halt this concerning trend and encourage Poles to have children more often. This improvement in fertility rates will lead to a better demographic balance, thereby avoiding the collapse of the pension system in the near future.
PL
Problem niskich świadczeń emerytalnych dotyczyć będzie wielu osób w niedalekiej przyszłości. Jedną z przyczyn załamania się systemu emerytalno-rentowego jest problem niskiej dzietności. Sytuacja ujemnego przyrostu naturalnego występuje w Polsce od wielu lat. Do tej pory starano się temu zapobiec za pomocą głównie transferów socjalnych. Brak było systemowych rozwiązań, które mogłyby zwiększyć poziom dzietności w Polsce. W niniejszym artykule autorzy starają się wskazać, że rozwiązanie problemu, przez który Polacy nie decydują się na posiadanie dzieci, nie znajduje się jedynie w kwestii finansowej. Szerokie spojrzenie na to zagadnienie pozwala zauważyć, jaka jest geneza tego zjawiska. Autorzy sugerują rozwiązania, jakie należy zastosować w najbliższym czasie, aby zastopować ten niepokojący trend, a także żeby sprawić, że Polacy częściej będą decydowali się na potomstwo. Dzięki temu polepszeniu ulegnie współczynnik dzietności, a co za tym idzie – unikniemy załamania się w niedalekiej przyszłości systemu emerytalno-rentowego.
Celem opracowania jest rozpoznanie wielkości, zmian i zróżnicowania współczynnika dzietności i stopy bezrobocia rejestrowanego w województwie wielkopolskim według powiatów oraz kierunku, kształtu i siły zależności między współczynnikiem dzietności a stopą bezrobocia rejestrowanego w powiatach tego województwa. Hipoteza główna opracowania głosi, że stopa bezrobocia rejestrowanego w powiatach województwa wielkopolskiego w latach 1999–2015 wpływa na współczynnik dzietności. Zakres czasowy opracowania obejmuje lata 1999–2015. Źródłem opracowania były dane Banku Danych Regionalnych za lata 1999–2015 zawarte na stronie internetowej Głównego Urzędu Statystycznego. Do opisu dynamiki współczynnika dzietności wykorzystano indeksy dynamiki o podstawie stałej, przyjmując rok 1999 = 100%, a do określenia wpływu stopy bezrobocia rejestrowanego na współczynnik dzietności ogólnej – analizę korelacji i regresji dwóch zmiennych. Rezultaty badania ukazały, że w badanym okresie współczynniki dzietności są zróżnicowane co do kierunku i intensywności w województwie wielkopolskim według powiatów. Podobna prawidłowość odnosi się do stopy bezrobocia rejestrowanego. W postępowaniu badawczym potwierdzono hipotezę o zależności współczynnika dzietności ogólnej od stopy bezrobocia rejestrowanego. Oszacowane modele regresji współczynnika dzietności względem stopy bezrobocia rejestrowanego w większości powiatów są liniowe o kierunku ujemnym. Współczynniki determinacji są zróżnicowane według środowiska zamieszkania.
EN
The purpose of this study is to identify variations between fertility rates in correlation to registered unemployment rates of different districts in the Wielkopolska region and to provide the type, direction, and strength of potential correlation between the two variables: birth rates and unemployment rates. This study hypothesizes that registered unemployment rates influence the fertility rates within the Wielkopolska region. The range of time covered by this study is between 1999 to 2015. The data used in this study was sourced from the Regional Data Bank (1999–2015) and is available on the Polish Central Statistical Office website. In the exploration stage, the fertility rates in 1999 were used as a base for all comparisons when describing the indices of the dynamics. To determine the impact of registered unemployment rates on total fertility rates, a two-way factorial regression analysis and correlational analysis were conducted. The results indicate that fertility rates between 1999 to 2015 varied, in terms of the relationship strength and direction, between the Wielkopolska’s districts. A similar pattern was discovered in relation to the registered unemployment rates. In the research process, the hypothesis confirmed a correlation between total fertility rates and registered unemployment rates. The regression models used described the fertility rates in relation to registered unemployment rates, in most of the districts, as linear and pointing in a negative direction. The coefficients of determination are differentiated by place of residence.
W Polsce od 1956 r. zachodziły istotne przeobrażenia. Ekipa Władysława Gomułki odeszła od stalinowskiego modelu sprawowania władzy, zrezygnowała z terroru jako metody rządzenia i poszerzyła zakres swobód politycznych. Najtrwalszą konsekwencją tego nowego kursu było porzucenie programu kolektywizacji rolnictwa, co pozwoliło przywrócić na wsi indywidualną własność ziemi. Odzyskał swą podmiotowość Kościół rzymskokatolicki, prześladowany w czasach stalinowskich.The events of the Polish October resulted in significant transformations occurring in Poland after 1956. Władysław Gomułka’s team departed from the Stalinist model of state, and from terror as the method of ruling, and broadened the scope of political freedoms. The longest-lasting consequence of this new line in politics was the abandonment of the process of collectivisation of agriculture, which made it possible for individual farming to be restored. The Roman Catholic Church, persecuted during the Stalinist period, regained its subjectivity.
In the article we test the hypothesis that the weakening of family ties, as measured by the reduction in the number of marriages, a cascade of divorces and the decrease in the fertility rate, has brought about an economic slowdown in Poland. We also suppose that the economic growth and increased standard of living influence the increasing number of marriages, the fertility rate, and results in a decreasing number of divorces. We verify these hypotheses using an econometric model of economic growth with the family social capital. The model consists of seven stochastic equations and exhibits the feedback between GDP, labour productivity and some variables representing social capital, in particular the marriage disintegration ratio. We try to verify the hypothesis of the existence of an optimal divorce rate for economic growth.
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