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IMPACT OF A MODIFIED HP FILTER ON COUNTERCYCLICAL BEHAVIOR OF THE SWISS FISCAL RULE

100%
Pigoń A., Ramsza M.
Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy
|
2016
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vol. 11
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issue 4
661-674
EN
Fiscal rules are an idea that has been getting more attention lately due to the recent economic crisis. Fiscal rules has been tested for many properties, including countercyclical behavior. The present paper focuses on the Swiss fiscal rule and investigates the impact of a modified HP filter, used in the rule, on countercyclical behavior of the rule. The paper uses real GDP time series for over a hundred countries and applies the rule to each time series in two variants, with a standard HP filter and a modified HP filter. For each result procyclicality indices are calculated. It is found that the modification of HP filter, used in the Swiss fiscal rule, increases countercyclical behavior of the rule.
2
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Growth-maximizing public debt in Turkey: An empirical investigation

80%
Bulus G. C.
Economics and Business Review
|
2020
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vol. 6(20)
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issue 3
68-87
EN
The aim of the paper is to empirically estimate the growth-maximizing debtto-GDP ratio in the case of Turkey. To calculate the growth-maximizing debt-to-GDP ratio FMOLS, DOLS, and CCR estimators are used for the period from 1960–2013. According to the empirical findings the growth-maximizing debt-to-GDP ratio varies between 34.3% and 38.7%. Based on a comparison of these ratios to current data (29.1% for 2018), Turkey has the capacity for additional borrowing to achieve a growthmaximizing debt-to-GDP ratio. If this additional borrowing capacity is used for public investment with a return greater than the interest cost of the additional debt economic growth will be maximized and public debt sustainability supported.
3
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The “Golden Rule” as a New Financial Management Tool for Local Governments

70%
Błażuk K., Czernicki P.
Polish Political Science Yearbook
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2019
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issue 4 (48)
653-662
EN
The implementation of the so-called “golden rule” regarding the fiscal management of the sub-sector of the local-self-government (LSG) constituted a reaction to the growth of the debt within the sector of public finances and an attempt to curb the LSG deficit. In this manner the Legislator wanted to balance the budget regarding operating revenues and the operating expenditures and to allow for the use of public loans, thus permitting the generation of the debt only in regard to capital expenditures. The authors of the article evaluate the validity of introducing the new regulations, subjecting the “golden rule” to a positive critique and forming requirements for changes and improvements based on solutions to this problem utilized in other countries. An empiric data is presented that shows the consequences of overloading the LSG with the effects of the growing level of public debt in a situation when the responsibility for the majority of the debt (more than 90%) rests with the public governance at the government level. The authors also put forth the thesis that the implementation of the more restrictive rules on the central level is also necessary to optimize the entire system of public finances.
4
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Strengthening the Post-crisis Fiscal Rules – the Case of Spain, Slovakia and Sweden

70%
Moździerz A.
Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy
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2015
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vol. 10
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issue 2
31-52
EN
The purpose of this article is to identify changes in the development of national fiscal rules in response to the crisis, in terms of the new economic governance in the EU. In-depth analysis was carried out on the example of the three countries that have the highest Fiscal Rule Strength Index, i.e. Spain, Slovakia and Sweden. The conclusions of the study were the basis for the formulation of recommendations for Poland. The research focuses on the new rules as well as the rules modified between 2007 and 2012. The key elements of creating fiscal rules and criteria used for their evaluation were recognized. The research shows that the strength of fiscal rules is determined by their legitimacy, the type of institutions monitoring them, the adjustment mechanism and sanctions, as well as the scope of the public sector, which the rule was imposed on. Short duration of most of the rules limits the ability to evaluate their effectiveness. However, the analysis of changes in the finance sector and local government in terms of new institutional arrangements allowed to conclude that the strong fiscal rules index is not a guarantee of maintaining public finance discipline, and the example of this was the varied fiscal position of the countries surveyed.
5
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Wpływ reguły wydatkowej na typ polityki fiskalnej w Polsce

61%
Moździerz A.
Annales Universitatis Mariae Curie-Skłodowska, sectio H – Oeconomia
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2019
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vol. 53
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issue 4
EN
Theoretical background: Presentation of Polish experiences with the introduction of the expenditure rule into the Polish law under the influence of EU regulations.Purpose of the article: Demonstration that the modification of the expenditure rule carried out in 2015 resulted in the loss of its stabilising nature, which was supposed to be its main feature.Research methods: The changes in the fiscal policy stance in 2013–2018 were identified on the basis of annual changes in the ratio of cyclically-adjusted primary balance to output gap.Main findings: The analyses carried out in the paper showed that the expenditure rule in its original shape was conducive to mitigation of economic fluctuations. After the reduction of the restrictiveness of the expenditure rule in 2015, consisting in replacing the inflation target with medium-term inflation target, it no longer played a stabilising role. The conclusion of the article is that well-constructed numerical fiscal rules may be an important instrument for maintaining control over the state of public finances, but experiences with the expenditure rule in Poland provide many arguments to opponents of the application of numerical rules in fiscal policy.
PL
Uzasadnienie teoretyczne: Przedstawienie polskich doświadczeń z wprowadzaniem reguły wydatkowej do krajowego prawa pod wpływem regulacji unijnych.Cel artykułu: Wykazanie, że modyfikacja reguły wydatkowej z 2015 r. skutkowała utratą jej stabilizującego charakteru, który miał stanowić jej główną właściwość.Metody badawcze: Identyfikacji zmian w nastawieniu w polityce fiskalnej w latach 2013–2018 dokonano na podstawie zmian w ujęciu rocznym salda pierwotnego dostosowanego cyklicznie względem luki produkcyjnej.Główne wnioski: Przeprowadzone w pracy analizy wykazały, że reguła wydatkowa funkcjonująca w pierwotnym kształcie sprzyjała łagodzeniu wahań koniunkturalnych. Wraz ze zmniejszeniem restrykcyjności reguły wydatkowej w 2015 r., polegającej na zastąpieniu w formule wskaźnika prognozowanej inflacji wskaźnikiem średniookresowego celu inflacyjnego, jej funkcja stabilizująca została zatracona. Stwierdzono, że dobrze skonstruowane numeryczne reguły fiskalne mogą być ważnym instrumentem zachowania kontroli nad stanem finansów publicznych, lecz doświadczenia z regułą wydatkową w Polsce dostarczają wielu argumentów przeciwnikom stosowania reguł numerycznych w polityce fiskalnej.
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