Search results

1

Status prognozy w teorii zarządzania

100%

Dudek M.

Prosopon. Europejskie Studia Społeczno-Humanistyczne

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2012

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issue 2(4)

143-147

EN

Today, the results of all major projects are forecast. According to the author, the role of forecasts will continue to grow, especially in management.

2

Modeling Gas Prices in Poland with an Application of the Vector Autoregression Method (VAR)

100%

Mentel G.

Folia Oeconomica Stetinensia

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2012

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vol. 12

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issue 2

46-57

EN

The paper presents examples of gas prices modeling in Poland by means of the VAR model (AutoRegression Vector Model). For comparison, the predictions are made for the models estimated by different variations of the generalized least squares method. The analysis is based on gas prices set by the Carpathian Gas Company after 2000 for the tariffs applied for individual customers. Thus, value forecasts were presented for this type of energy for the “ordinary” customers in the light of the existing regulations.

3

Forecasting the critical points of stock markets’ indices using log-periodic power law

80%

Korzeniowski P., Kuropka I.

Econometrics. Ekonometria. Advances in Applied Data Analytics

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2013

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issue 1(39)

100-110

EN

This article presents Log-Periodic Power Law and considers its usefulness as a forecasting tool on the financial markets. One of the estimation methods of this function was presented and six models were built, based on time series of the DJIA and the WIG20. Estimated models were utilized to predict crashes of those indices. The variations between the actual values of analyzed indices observed in the forecasted period and values observed in the actual period of their downturn were assembled to assess the results. In three cases, relative errors were below 5%; and in three cases, they were higher than 15%.

4

Testing the Sustainability of Growth of the LJSEX in the January 2000 to May 2010 period

80%

Ahčan A.

Organizacija

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2011

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vol. 44

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issue 2

47-58

EN

In this paper we analyse the behaviour of the LJSEX, the main index of the Ljubljana Stock Exchange, in the period from January 2000 till May 2010. More precisely, we test for the presence of bubbles and antibubbles and try to determine whether or not a bubble could have been predicted (both the formation and the date of the bubble burst). Second, we also employ techniques used to model antibubbles to forecast the future behaviour of the LJSE index. Besides modelling index dynamics for the aforementioned period, we also seek to determine the factors that led to the bubble forming and later bursting. We find that the bubble could have been forecasted at least several months in advance. On the other hand, a very precise date of the crash seems harder to identify. By more closely analysing the interplay between interest rates, credit activity and the LJSEX, we conclude that there is a clear connection between decreasing interest rates, increased credit activity and the formation of a stock bubble. If there is a clear correlation between the early phase of a bubble and increased credit activity of the banking sector, the link between the end of the bubble and the restriction of credit activity is less pronounced. By fitting the extended antibubble model from (Johansen 1999a) we obtain the values of parameters that give us some indication of the future behaviour of the LJSEX. Based on these results we conclude that in the next few years we are likely to experience a period of increased volatility with no clear increasing or decreasing growth pattern.

5

Информационное обеспечение процесса регулирования єкономического развития

80%

Рьібчак В. И., Рьібчак Е. С., Курмаев П. Ю.

Zeszyty Naukowe PWSZ w Płocku. Nauki Ekonomiczne

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2015

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vol. 2(22)

441-444

EN

The problems of regional economics information support development have been reviewed in the article. The role of information in Ukraine's economy was defined. The basic sources of funding for information and analytical system projects were analyzed. It was claimed that cooperation with international financial institutions would promote the interest of private investors. The scientific approaches to the information support aims development of state politics have been justified. The system of information and analytical support has been analyzed. Information and analytical system must be part of a common information space, to provide an effective solution to the problems of analysis, modeling, forecasting activities, preparation of decisions and monitor their implementation.

6

Forecasting Income Distributions of Households in Poland on the Basis of Markov Chains

80%

Czajkowski A., University of Łódź C. o. S. M.

Acta Universitatis Lodziensis. Folia Oeconomica

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2009

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vol. 225

EN

In order to forecast income distributions of population, we can make use of, among others, stochastic processes. These processes can be used to determine probabilities of transition of households from one income class to another. The paper attempts to present an application of homogenous Markov chains in the process of forecasting the income structure of six socio-economic groups of population in Poland for the years 2004, 2006 and 2008. Forecasts are based on results of individual household budgets surveys.

PL

Do prognozowania rozkładów dochodów ludności wykorzystywane być mogą m. in. procesy stochastyczne służące do określania wielkości prawdopodobieństw przejścia gospodarstw domowych z określonej grupy dochodowej do innej. W opracowaniu podjęto próbę wykorzystania jednorodnych łańcuchów Markowa do sporządzania prognoz struktury dochodów sześciu grup społeczno-ekonomicznych ludności w Polsce dla lat 2004, 2006 i 2008. Podstawę szacunków stanowiły wyniki badań budżetów indywidualnych gospodarstw domowych.

7

Non-Statistical Methods of Analysing of Bankruptcy Risk

80%

Pisula T., Mentel G., Brożyna J.

Folia Oeconomica Stetinensia

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2015

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vol. 15

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issue 1

7-21

EN

The article focuses on assessing the effectiveness of a non-statistical approach to bankruptcy modelling in enterprises operating in the logistics sector. In order to describe the issue more comprehensively, the aforementioned prediction of the possible negative results of business operations was carried out for companies functioning in the Polish region of Podkarpacie, and in Slovakia. The bankruptcy predictors selected for the assessment of companies operating in the logistics sector included 28 financial indicators characterizing these enterprises in terms of their financial standing and management effectiveness. The purpose of the study was to identify factors (models) describing the bankruptcy risk in enterprises in the context of their forecasting effectiveness in a one-year and two-year time horizon. In order to assess their practical applicability the models were carefully analysed and validated. The usefulness of the models was assessed in terms of their classification properties, and the capacity to accurately identify enterprises at risk of bankruptcy and healthy companies as well as proper calibration of the models to the data from training sample sets.

8

Forecasts an employment rate of older workers in Poland with time – area analogy method /

80%

Gondek A.

Management

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2013

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vol. 17

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issue 1

319-332

EN

This article presents the research which aim was to construct forecasts of an employment rate of older workers in Poland for next few years. The time - area analogy method was use in this study and brought high credibility forecasts of the employment rate based on analogies between Poland and UE countries in research phenomenon

9

Forecasting the sales of console games for the Italian market

80%

Rossetti R.

Econometrics. Ekonometria. Advances in Applied Data Analytics

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2019

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issue vol. 23 no. 3

76-96

EN

In videogames industry, time series analysis can be very useful in determining the general evolution and behaviour of the market dynamics. These methods are applicable to any time series forecasting problem, regardless of the application sector. This article discusses time series approaches to forecast the sales of console games for the Italian market. In particular two univariate techniques were evaluated, exponential smoothing and the SARIMA technique. The aim is to exploit the capabilities of these statistical methods in order to have a comparison of the results and to choose the most accurate model through an ex-post evaluation. Using monthly time-series data from November 2005 to September 2017, the selection of the most suitable model was indicated by the smallest value of the measures of accuracy (MAPE, sMAPE, RMSE) for the out-of-sample observations regarding the period October 2017-September 2018. The implementation of the models was done using Forecast PRO and Gretl. The time series involved is related to the sales regarding the first party manufacturers of consoles and handhelds (Microsoft, Sony and Nintendo).

10

Applications of production function in agriculture

80%

Parlińska M., Dareev G.

Metody Ilościowe w Badaniach Ekonomicznych

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2011

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vol. 12

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issue 1

119-124

EN

The article describes some possibilities of using the production function for the theoretical analysis of agricultural economics. It’s proposed a some approaches to the analysis of Agricultural economy in the Poland as national economy part and Agricultural economy in the Republic of Buryatia1 as regional economy part. The mathematic models are made for both cases, the results is obtained, which show the production functions efficiency for macroeconomic analysis.

11

Kadry kwalifikowane na rynku pracy. Najcenniejszy zasób współczesnych gospodarek

80%

Marszowski R.

Społeczeństwo i Edukacja. Międzynarodowe Studia Humanistyczne

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2018

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issue 2(29)

183-205

EN

On the basis of total assessments, analyzes, diagnoses and forecasts presented in the paper, it should be recognized that human resources - in particular qualified staff – are the most valuable resource of modern economies. Changes that occur significantly may decrease this asset. The key determinant shaping indicated threat is reversal of the age pyramid and associated: demographic depression and population aging. So how to shape solutions in these realities, thanks to which you can limit effects of changes taking place and counteract them? In the context of human resources, it seems that it is inevitable first and foremost to anticipate changes and to respond to it constantly.

12

A COMPARISON OF THE USEFULNESS OF WINTERS’ AND SARIMA MODELS IN FORECASTING OF PROCUREMENT PRICES OF MILK IN POLAND

80%

Lira J.

Metody Ilościowe w Badaniach Ekonomicznych

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2013

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vol. 14

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issue 1

325-333

EN

In the paper the Winters’ model has been studied as one from adaptive models based on exponential smoothing methods as well as seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model SARIMA. The aim of the paper is the assessment of accuracy of short-term forecasts of procurement prices of milk in Poland. Empirical verification of ex post forecasts of monthly procurement prices of milk on the basis of 109 time series with 12-month forecast horizon was conducted. Forecasts constructed with the use of SARIMA model are more often exact than when additive and multiplicative Winters’ model are used.

13

WHY ECONOMIC FORECASTS ARE NOT ACCURATE

80%

Bazeli B.

Roczniki Ekonomiczne Kujawsko-Pomorskiej Szkoły Wyższej w Bydgoszczy

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2017

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issue 1(10)

11-23

EN

Predicting the future is an essential element in the preparation of human action, and one of the predictions of the future is forecasting. The methodology of forecasting economic processes is very rich and extremely difficult workshop and therefore there are many methods of forecasting. The article discusses the conditions under which more or less accurate forecasts of the future can be made. The purpose of the study is to identify the main causes for the failure of forecasts while emphasizing the need to develop them.

14

Failure and insolvency. A proposal for Polish prediction models

70%

Staszkiewicz P., Witkowski B.

Prace Naukowe Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego we Wrocławiu

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2018

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issue 519

160-172

EN

This paper discusses the problem of mutual use of the insolvency and bankruptcy variable for business failure modelling. The prior Polish literature on insolvency tends to focus on the qualitative research. This research shows how the terms bankruptcy and insolvency modelling on the informal dataset might result in different fits of the models. Models were estimated based on 17,024 firm’s yearly observations from the 2004 to 2014 for the Polish financial market. Following prior research, the models were developed with application of the logit regression. The evidence gathered during the study supports the conclusion that the use of the legal definition of insolvency is a weak instrument for bankruptcy modelling.

15

Selected econometric methods of modelling the world’s population

70%

Rzymowski W., Surowiec A.

Econometrics. Ekonometria. Advances in Applied Data Analytics

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2018

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issue vol. 22 no. 2

34-44

EN

Selected econometric methods of modelling the world’s population size based on historical data are presented in the paper. Periodical variables were used in the models proposed in the paper. Moreover, a logistic-type function was used in modelling. The purpose of the paper was to obtain a model describing the world’s population with the lowest possible maximal relative error and possibly the longest period of durability. In this work, 13,244 models from three families models were analyzed. Only a small part of such a large number of models satisfies the conditions of stability. The method of modelling the world’s population size allows to obtain models with maximal relative errors not exceeding 0.5%. Selected models were used to prediction of the world’s population up to 2050. The obtained results were compared with data published by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development.

16

Prediction of pork meat prices by selected methods as an element supporting the decision-making process

70%

ZIELIŃSKA-SITKIEWICZ M., CHRZANOWSKA M.

Operations Research and Decisions

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2021

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vol. 31

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issue 3

137-152

EN

Forecasts of economic processes can be determined using various methods, and each of them has its own characteristics and is based on specific assumptions. In the case of agriculture, forecasting is an essential element of efficient management of the entire farming process. The pork sector is one of the main agricultural sectors in the world. Pork consumption and supply are the highest among all types of meat, and Poland belongs to the group of large producers. The article analyses the price formation of class E pork, expressed in € per 100 kg of carcass, recorded from May 2004 to December 2019. The data comes from the Agri-food data portal. A creeping trend model with segments of linear trends of various lengths and the methodology of building ARIMA models are used to forecast these prices. The accuracy of forecasts is verified by forecasting ex post and ex ante errors, graphical analysis, and backcasting analysis. The study shows that both methods can be used in the prediction of pork prices.

17

Rynek pracy Zabrza. Uwarunkowania społeczno-demograficzne

70%

Marszowski R.

Społeczeństwo i Edukacja. Międzynarodowe Studia Humanistyczne

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2018

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issue 2(29)

213-240

EN

Socio-demographic conditions are recognized as important determinants shaping current and future labour market policy. It seems that without structured and documented scientifically knowledge on socio-demographic processes taking place in a given research area, formulating current and future goals of labour market policy may be subject to serious errors and numerous irregularities. In this context, in paper analyzes, research and forecasts were focused on selected social and demographic factors shaping condition and determining future development of labour market in Zabrze.

18

Prognoza wzrostu gospodarczego polskich regionów do 2015 roku

61%

Herbst M.

Studia Regionalne i Lokalne

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2008

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issue 2(32)

61-71

PL

Celem analizy przedstawionej w dalszej części artykułu jest symulacja wzrostu gospodarczego w polskich regionach i podregionach w latach 2006–2015, wykorzystująca obserwowane w przeszłości odchylenia regionalnych stóp wzrostu od stopy krajowej. Prognoza przewiduje, że głównymi ośrodkami wzrostu w badanym okresie będą metropolie warszawska i poznańska. Do 2015 r. województwo mazowieckie znacznie przekroczy średni poziom PKB na mieszkańca dla UE 27. Choć polska gospodarka zbliży się pod względem dochodów do unijnej średniej, to należy się spodziewać dalszej polaryzacji rozwoju między regionami. Najbiedniejsze polskie województwa mogą w 2015 r. osiągnąć PKB per capita zbliżony do średniego poziomu dla Polski z 2006 r.

EN

The article offers a forecast of GDP per capita growth in Polish regions (NTS2) and subregions (NTS3) between 2006 and 2015, based on the past deviations of regional economies from the national growth path. The simulation shows that highest rates are expected in two metropolitan areas – Warsaw and Poznan. The Mazowieckie region (the one including Warsaw) will become the first to surpass the average level of GDP per capita in EU27. Although Poland will generally close the GDP gap to EU, further polarisation between regions is expected. The per capita income of the most lagging Polish regions will in 2015 reach (in real terms) the 2006 level of Polish national economy.

19

Podstawy prawne prognozowania skutków finansowych uchwalenia miejscowego planu zagospodarowania przestrzennego

61%

Korecki D., Wierzchowski M. W.

Świat Nieruchomości

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2010

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issue 3(73)

28-35

PL

Opracowanie prognozy skutków finansowych uchwalenia miejscowego planu zagospodarowania przestrzennego wynika z ustawy z dnia 27 marca 2003 r. o planowaniu i zagospodarowaniu przestrzennym oraz ustawy z dnia 8 marca 1990 r. o samorządzie gminnym. Prognoza ta powinna określać wpływ ustaleń projektu planu na: 1) dochody własne i wydatki gminy; 2) wydatki związane z realizacją inwestycji z zakresu infrastruktury technicznej, które należą do zadań własnych gminy; 3) walory ekonomiczne przestrzeni i związane z nią prawa własności oraz wartości nieruchomości; oznaczające w praktyce: • bezpośrednią odpowiedzialność ekonomiczną gminy za zmiany wartości nieruchomości spowodowane uchwaleniem nowego planu lub zmianą istniejącego, mającą formę (odszkodowania, wykup nieruchomości, oferowanie nieruchomości zamiennych); • możliwość uzyskania przez gminę korzyści wynikających ze wzrostu wartości nieruchomości spowodowanej uchwaleniem nowego planu lub zmianą istniejącego. W wielu przypadkach, racjonalne gospodarowanie przestrzenią na położonych na obszarach przeznaczonych w planach miejscowych na cele inne niż rolne i leśne umożliwia proces scalania i wymiany nieruchomości, regulowany przepisami ustawy z dnia 21 sierpnia 1997 r. o gospodarce nieruchomościami. Warunki scalenia i podziału nieruchomości określa plan miejscowy. Ustala on między innymi: • wysokość, termin i sposób zapłaty przez beneficjentów scalenia opłat adiacenckich; • wykaz działek gruntu wydzielonych pod drogi oraz urządzeń, których właściciele lub użytkownicy wieczyści nie mogli odłączyć od gruntu, oraz za drzew i krzewów - za które gmina wypłaci odszkodowanie.

EN

Develop financial forecasts of the effects of the adoption of local land use plan based on the Law of 27 March 2003 on planning and spatial development and the Act of 8 March 1990 on local self government. Forecast should specify the impact of the findings of the draft plan at: 1. own revenue and expenditure of municipalities; 2. costs relating to investments in technical infrastructure, which belong to the commune’s own tasks; 3. economic qualities of space and related property rights and property values, meaning in practice: - direct economic responsibility of the community due to changes in property values by adopting a new plan or changing an existing one, having the form (compensation, purchase of real estate, offering replacement property); - the possibility for the municipality gains, due to the increase of property value caused by adopting a new plan or changing an existing one. In many cases, rational land management - located in the areas allocated in local plans for purposes other than agriculture and forestry - enables the process of integrating and exchanging property, governed by the provisions of the Act of August 21, 1997 Real Estate Management. Terms of merging and division of property determines the local plan. It establishes: - the amount, timing and method of payment by beneficiaries fees for the access to technical infrastructure; - a list of parcels of land dedicated for roads and facilities whose owners or users could not disconnect from the land, and for trees and shrubs - for which the municipality will pay compensation.

20

Forecasting the confidence interval of efficiency in fuzzy DEA

61%

KAFI A., DANESHIAN B., ROSTAMY-MALKHALIFEH M.

Operations Research and Decisions

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2021

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vol. 31

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issue 1

41-59

EN

Data envelopment analysis (DEA) is a well-known method that based on inputs and outputs calculates the efficiency of decision-making units (DMUs). Comparing the efficiency and ranking of DMUs in different periods lets the decision-makers prevent any loss in the productivity of units and improve the production planning. Despite the merits of DEA models, they are not able to forecast the efficiency of future periods with known input/output records of the DMUs. With this end in view, this study aims at proposing a forecasting algorithm with a 95% confidence interval to generate fuzzy data sets for future periods. Moreover, managers’ opinions are inserted in the proposed forecasting model. Equipped with the forecasted data sets and concerning the data sets from earlier periods, this model can rightly forecast the efficiency of the future periods. The proposed procedure also employs the simple geometric mean to discriminate between efficient units. Examples from a real case including 20 automobile firms show the applicability of the proposed algorithm.

Refine search results

Status prognozy w teorii zarządzania

Modeling Gas Prices in Poland with an Application of the Vector Autoregression Method (VAR)

Forecasting the critical points of stock markets’ indices using log-periodic power law

Testing the Sustainability of Growth of the LJSEX in the January 2000 to May 2010 period

Информационное обеспечение процесса регулирования єкономического развития

Forecasting Income Distributions of Households in Poland on the Basis of Markov Chains

Non-Statistical Methods of Analysing of Bankruptcy Risk

Forecasts an employment rate of older workers in Poland with time – area analogy method /

Forecasting the sales of console games for the Italian market

Applications of production function in agriculture

Kadry kwalifikowane na rynku pracy. Najcenniejszy zasób współczesnych gospodarek

A COMPARISON OF THE USEFULNESS OF WINTERS’ AND SARIMA MODELS IN FORECASTING OF PROCUREMENT PRICES OF MILK IN POLAND

WHY ECONOMIC FORECASTS ARE NOT ACCURATE

Failure and insolvency. A proposal for Polish prediction models

Selected econometric methods of modelling the world’s population

Prediction of pork meat prices by selected methods as an element supporting the decision-making process

Rynek pracy Zabrza. Uwarunkowania społeczno-demograficzne

Prognoza wzrostu gospodarczego polskich regionów do 2015 roku

Podstawy prawne prognozowania skutków finansowych uchwalenia miejscowego planu zagospodarowania przestrzennego

Forecasting the confidence interval of efficiency in fuzzy DEA