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A COMPARISON OF THE USEFULNESS OF WINTERS’ AND SARIMA MODELS IN FORECASTING OF PROCUREMENT PRICES OF MILK IN POLAND

100%
Lira J.
Metody Ilościowe w Badaniach Ekonomicznych
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2013
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vol. 14
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issue 1
325-333
EN
In the paper the Winters’ model has been studied as one from adaptive models based on exponential smoothing methods as well as seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model SARIMA. The aim of the paper is the assessment of accuracy of short-term forecasts of procurement prices of milk in Poland. Empirical verification of ex post forecasts of monthly procurement prices of milk on the basis of 109 time series with 12-month forecast horizon was conducted. Forecasts constructed with the use of SARIMA model are more often exact than when additive and multiplicative Winters’ model are used.
2
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WHY ECONOMIC FORECASTS ARE NOT ACCURATE

100%
Bazeli B.
Roczniki Ekonomiczne Kujawsko-Pomorskiej Szkoły Wyższej w Bydgoszczy
|
2017
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issue 1(10)
11-23
EN
Predicting the future is an essential element in the preparation of human action, and one of the predictions of the future is forecasting. The methodology of forecasting economic processes is very rich and extremely difficult workshop and therefore there are many methods of forecasting. The article discusses the conditions under which more or less accurate forecasts of the future can be made. The purpose of the study is to identify the main causes for the failure of forecasts while emphasizing the need to develop them.
3
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Credibility of Discriminatory Models on the Example of Enterprises from the Lubelskie and Podkarpackie Voivodeships

89%
Pitera R., Chmiel J., Kozioł K.
Annales Universitatis Mariae Curie-Skłodowska, sectio H – Oeconomia
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2020
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vol. 54
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issue 3
EN
Theoretical background: The results of the conducted research allowed the classification of early-warning models according to the accuracy of the forecasts received for the last year of the study. Purpose of the article: The aim of the article was verification and prognostic assessment of discriminative models popular among researchers, answer to the question whether the model properly reflects the financial situation of the company. Research methods: The basis of all the methods used in this article was the analysis of existing data and methods of discriminant analysis. Main findings: The selected models properly reflected the financial situation of the 84 enterprises surveyed.
PL
Theoretical background: The results of the conducted research allowed the classification of early-warning models according to the accuracy of the forecasts received for the last year of the study.Purpose of the article: The aim of the article was verification and prognostic assessment of discriminative models popular among researchers, answer to the question whether the model properly reflects the financial situation of the company.Research methods: The basis of all the methods used in this article was the analysis of existing data and methods of discriminant analysis.Main findings: The selected models properly reflected the financial situation of the 84 enterprises surveyed.
4
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TRAFNOŚĆ PROGNOZ W STOSUNKU DO OCEN W TEŚCIE KONIUNKTURY PRZEMYSŁOWEJ GUS

75%
Zatoń W.
Metody Ilościowe w Badaniach Ekonomicznych
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2015
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vol. 16
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issue 4
261-270
PL
W artykule przeprowadzono ocenę trafności prognoz testu koniunktury przemysłowej GUS w odniesieniu do produkcji, portfela zamówień i sytuacji finansowej. Porównane zostały formułowane przez przedsiębiorców prognozy dotyczące tych cech z ich późniejszymi ocenami bieżącymi. Wyniki wskazują, że przedsiębiorcy odpowiadając na pytanie o prognozy produkcji i portfela zamówień w najbliższych trzech miesiącach, koncentrują się głównie na najbliższych dwóch miesiącach. Prognozy są systematycznie przeszacowywane, ich przeciętna trafność jest umiarkowana, ale wykazuje wyraźną poprawę w ostatnich latach.
EN
The study is the evaluation of the predictive accuracy of the CSO industrial business cycle test. Detailed research concerns the accuracy of the forecasts formulated in relation to the production, stock of orders and financial situation. The forecasts of these features formulated by the entrepreneurs are compared to their subsequent evaluations of current states. The results indicate that entrepreneurs responding to the question about forecast of production and stock of orders in the next three months focus mainly on the next two months. The forecasts are generally overestimated. Their average accuracy is moderate but shows a marked improvement in recent years.
5
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The incremental informativeness of sell-side earnings forecasts. Evidence for the Warsaw Stock Exchange

63%
Jakubowski S. T., Wójtowicz P.
Zeszyty Teoretyczne Rachunkowości
|
2019
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issue 105(161)
77-93
EN
We investigate whether earnings forecasts issued by sell-side analysts are incrementally informative about the returns of firms listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange (WSE), a moderately-developed, postcommunist capital market. Our sample covers the fiscal years 2008-2016. The informativeness of earnings (and earnings forecasts) is defined as the association between earnings (earnings forecasts) and returns. Our findings indicate that the mean earnings forecasts issued by sell-side analysts are incrementally informative about firm returns beyond the earnings reported. This result does not depend on firm size, profitability, or market return. The findings indicate that such forecasts incorporate useful incremental valuation information and that the incremental informativeness of these forecasts serves to protect the interests of analysts’ clients.
PL
Celem badania jest odpowiedź na pytanie, czy prognozy wyników finansowych publikowane przez analityków giełdowych (sell side) niosą dodatkową informację o stopach zwrotu z inwestycji w akcje spółek notowanych na Giełdzie Papierów Wartościowych w Warszawie (GPW), umiarkowanie rozwiniętym postkomunistycznym rynku kapitałowym. Nasza próba obejmuje lata podatkowe 2008–2016. Pojemność informacyjną wyników finansowych raportowanych (i prognoz wyników) definiuje się jako związek między wynikami (prognozami wyników) a stopami zwrotu. Nasze wyniki wskazują, że średnie prognozy wyników publikowane przez analityków niosą dodatkową informację o stopach zwrotu, ponad informację zawartą w wynikach raportowanych. Nie zależy to od wielkości spółki, jej rentowności ani stopy zwrotu. Wyniki wskazują, że w prognozach inkorporowana jest nowa, użyteczna do wyceny infor-macja, a zatem służą one ochronie interesów klientów analityków.
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