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ARIMA-based forecasting of the dynamics of confirmed Covid-19 cases for selected European countries

100%
Kufel T.
Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy
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2020
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vol. 15
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issue 2
181-204
EN
Research background: On 11 March 2020, the Covid-19 epidemic was identified by the World Health Organization (WHO) as a global pandemic. The rapid increase in the scale of the epidemic has led to the introduction of non-pharmaceutical countermeasures. Forecast of the Covid-19 prevalence is an essential element in the actions undertaken by authorities. Purpose of the article: The article aims to assess the usefulness of the Auto-regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model for predicting the dynamics of Covid-19 incidence at different stages of the epidemic, from the first phase of growth, to the maximum daily incidence, until the phase of the epidemic's extinction. Methods: ARIMA(p,d,q) models are used to predict the dynamics of virus distribution in many diseases. Model estimates, forecasts, and the accuracy of forecasts are presented in this paper. Findings & Value added: Using the ARIMA(1,2,0) model for forecasting the dynamics of Covid-19 cases in each stage of the epidemic is a way of evaluating the implemented non-pharmaceutical countermeasures on the dynamics of the epidemic.
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Evaluation of activities aimed at preventing microbiological risks in dental practice

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Szymańska J., Sitkowska J.
Medycyna Pracy
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2013
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vol. 64
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issue 1
11-17
PL
Wstęp: Mikrobiologiczne skażenie wody w instalacji wodnej unitów dentystycznych stwarza zagrożenie zakażeniami krzyżowymi, stanowiąc źródło szkodliwych czynników biologicznych w środowisku pracy stomatologa. Celem badań była ocena wiedzy dentystów na temat skażenia mikrobiologicznego wody z unitów dentystycznych oraz zakresu czynności/procedur, które powinny być podejmowane w celu monitorowania tego skażenia. Materiał i metody: Badanie ankietowe przeprowadzono w 2010 r. wśród 107 polskich stomatologów używających unitów dentystycznych w praktyce klinicznej. Wyniki: W codziennej pracy dentyści nie stosują procedur minimalizujących/eliminujących mikrobiologiczne skażenie wody w zbiornikach unitów dentystycznych. Nie mają oni wiedzy na temat skażenia instalacji wodnej dostarczającej wodę do końcówek roboczych, nie znają zasad postępowania z wodą z unitów ani z instalacją wodną, nie są też świadomi zagrożeń zdrowotnych stwarzanych przez mikrobiologiczne skażenie wody w unitach dla zespołu stomatologicznego i pacjentów. Wnioski: Konieczne jest dostarczenie dentystom informacji na temat problemu mikrobiologicznego skażenia wody w unitach dentystycznych oraz procedur prawidłowego postępowania z wodą w instalacjach wodnych unitów. Med. Pr. 2013;64(1):11–17
EN
Background: Microbiological contamination of water in dental unit waterlines (DUWL) creates a risk of cross-infections, and is a source of biological risk factors in the work environment of a dentist. The aim of the study was to evaluate dentists' knowledge on DUWL microbiological contamination and the scope of activities/procedures they undertake to monitor it. Material and Methods: The questionnaire survey was conducted in 2010 among 107 Polish dentists using dental units in everyday clinical practice. Results: It has been found that in their daily practice, dentists do not follow procedures leading to reduction or elimination of microbiological contamination of dental unit reservoir water. They are not aware of microbiological contamination of DUWL that supply working handpieces with water. They are unaware of the principles of dealing with dental water and water supply systems or the health risk posed by microbiological contamination of unit water for a dental team and patients. Conclusions: It is necessary to provide dentists with information on microbiological contamination of water in dental units, on the correct procedures of handling water and waterlines that supply working handpieces with water. Med Pr 2013;64(1):11–17
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Krztusiec jako choroba zakaźna pracowników ochrony zdrowia - przypadek kliniczny z komentarzem

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Kuchar E., Nitsch-Osuch A., Szenborn L.
Medycyna Pracy
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2013
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vol. 64
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issue 5
731-739
EN
We discuss the changing epidemiological situation of pertussis observed in recent years, with a focus on the shift of cases from young children to older age groups, teenagers and adults. Whooping cough may affect healthcare workers who belong to a high-risk group and cause hospital infections. We present a case report of pertussis in a nurse and the recommended prophylactic measures in healthcare workers. The current definition and diagnosis of pertussis is also discussed. The clinical course of pertussis can be significantly alleviated and highly non-specific, with no typical coughing and vomiting in people vaccinated against whooping cough a few years earlier. Pertussis should be considered in the differential diagnosis of cough lasting more than fourteen days. Improvement of the epidemiological situation requires, besides immunization of infants, regular and universal booster immunization for adolescents and adults. Vaccinations for health care workers of neonatal and pediatric wards are recommended in the National Program of Immunization for 2013. It seems that booster vaccination of health care workers with a triple vaccine against diphtheria, tetanus and acellular pertussis (dTpa) of the reduced quantity of antigens, particularly of health workers caring for infants, children and the elderly, may be the most effective way to reduce the risk of pertussis transmission in the health care environment. Med Pr 2013;64(5):731–739
PL
W pracy omówiono zmieniającą się w ostatnich latach sytuację epidemiologiczną krztuśca ze zwróceniem uwagi na przeniesienie zachorowań z małych dzieci na starsze grupy wiekowe - młodzież i dorosłych. Zachorowania mogą dotyczyć pracowników ochrony zdrowia, którzy są grupą podwyższonego ryzyka, i mieć charakter zakażenia szpitalnego. W artykule przedstawiono przypadek kliniczny krztuśca u pielęgniarki oraz wskazano postępowanie profilaktyczne zalecane u pracowników służby zdrowia. Omówiono aktualną definicję i diagnostykę krztuśca. U osób szczepionych przed kilku laty przebieg kliniczny choroby może być znacznie złagodzony i bardzo niecharakterystyczny - bez typowego kaszlu i wymiotów. Krztusiec należy uwzględniać w diagnostyce różnicowej kaszlu utrzymującego się ponad 14 dni. Poprawa sytuacji epidemiologicznej wymaga, poza uodpornieniem niemowląt, powszechnych i regularnych szczepień przypominających młodzieży i dorosłych. W polskim Programie Szczepień Ochronnych na 2013 rok wprowadzono zalecenie szczepienia pracowników oddziałów noworodkowych i dziecięcych. Wydaje się, że szczepienia przypominające pracowników ochrony zdrowia potrójną szczepionką przeciwko błonicy, tężcowi i krztuścowi o zmniejszonej dawce antygenów (Diphteria, Tetanus and acellular Pertussis vaccine - dTpa) - zwłaszcza mających kontakt z niemowlętami, dziećmi i osobami starszymi - mogą być najbardziej skutecznym sposobem zmniejszenia ryzyka transmisji krztuśca w placówkach ochrony zdrowia. Med. Pr. 2013;64(5):731–739
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Prevalence of blood-borne viruses among Iranian dentists: Results of a national survey

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Ahmad Akhoundi M. S., Momeni N., Norouzi M., Ghalichi L., Shamshiri A. R., Alavian S. M., Poortahmasebi V., Jazayeri S. M.
International Journal of Occupational Medicine and Environmental Health
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2015
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vol. 28
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issue 3
593-602
EN
Objectives Health care workers, including dentists, are at the front line for acquiring blood-borne virus infections. This study aimed to investigate the prevalence of hepatitis B, hepatitis C and human immunodeficiency viruses among Iranian dentists. Material and Methods The survey included 1628 dental health care workers who attended the 51st annual Congress of the Iranian Dental Association. Data on the risk of blood-borne virus transmission during health care and infection control practices were gathered from self-administered questionnaires. Sera were screened serologically by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). The positive samples were examined by polymerase chain reaction (PRC) followed by direct sequencing. Results Six (0.36%) and 81 (5.0%) were positive for hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) and (anti-hepatitis B virus core antigen (anti-HBc), respectively. Only 1 (0.061%) was positive for anti-hepatitis C virus (anti-HCV). No case was positive for anti-human immunodeficiency virus (anti-HIV). One case was diagnosed as being occult hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection. One thousand five hundred thirty-five (94.3%) of participants had received at least 1 dose of HBV vaccine. One thousand three hundred fifty-nine (88.5%) contained hepatitis B surface antibody (anti-HBs) > 10 IU/ml, of whom 55 (4.0%) were anti-HBc positive, suggesting that they had been infected with HBV in the past. Anti-HBc positive cases had past histories of hepatitis, either their own or their spouses’. Individuals with inadequate anti-HBs levels (< 10 IU/ml) were significantly more prevalent among anti-HBc positive cases (p < 0.001). Conclusions The prevalence of blood-borne viruses among dental HCWs found in this study was lower than past reports from Iranian dentists and general population. The implementation of HBV vaccination together with improvement in infection control procedures has reduced the potential for risk infection among Iranian dentists.
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The prevalence and determinants of SARS-CoV-2 infections among healthcare workers, results of a cross-sectional study in the Silesian Voivodeship

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Wojczyk M., Kowalska M.
International Journal of Occupational Medicine and Environmental Health
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2023
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vol. 36
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issue 2
201-213
EN
Objectives A significant proportion of healthcare workers (HCWs) had been infected with SARS-CoV-2, which complicated the organization of patient care during the COVID-19 pandemic. However, the exact scale of infection prevalence among the group of HCWs is not known, therefore this study aimed to assess the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 infection among HCWs in the Silesian voivodeship, Poland, and to define its determinants. Material and Methods The cross-sectional study was conducted in 2 multidisciplinary hospitals in the Silesian voivodeship during the period October 2021–February 2022. The standardized WHO questionnaire Surveillance protocol for SARS-CoV-2 infection among health workers was completed by 242 HCWs. To assess the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 infection and its determinants, such as personal, occupational, and work environment-related conditions and preventive behaviors, the collected data were subjected to statistical analysis. For this purpose, descriptive and analytical statistics (significance of differences in χ² test) were used. Results Almost half (42.6%) of subjects were infected with coronavirus, most frequently care assistants (57.1%) and paramedics (50%). People suffering from chronic diseases were infected significantly more often (p < 0.001). The majority of the infected HCWs declared previous contact with COVID-19 patients (56.3%). Unfortunately, 10.3% of respondents refused to be vaccinated against COVID-19, most often care assistants (38.1%) and nurses (10.6%). The determinants such as sex, age, occupation, place of work (ward), participation in occupational safety and health training, use of personal protective equipment (PPE), or preventive behaviors did not significantly affect the risk of infection (p > 0.05). Conclusions Even though the PPE was used and the percentage of fully vaccinated HCWs against COVID-19 was high (89.7%), the frequency of SARS-CoV-2 infected HCWs remains high at 42.6% (95% CI: 40.7–44.5%). The main determinants of SARS-CoV-2 infection risk among HCWs were previous contact with infected individuals and the presence of chronic disease.
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Seasonal influenza vaccination of healthcare workers: a narrative review

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Jędrzejek M. J., Mastalerz-Migas A.
International Journal of Occupational Medicine and Environmental Health
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2021
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vol. 35
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issue 2
127-139
EN
Influenza is an acute respiratory disease caused by the influenza virus which often occurs in outbreaks and epidemics worldwide. The World Health Organization recommends annual vaccination of healthcare workers (HCWs) against influenza, because most of them are involved in the direct care of patients with a high risk of influenza-related complications. Given the significance of the disease burden, a targeted literature review was conducted to assess issues related to influenza vaccination among HCWs. The primary aim of this review was to assess the incidence of influenza among medical personnel and healthcare-associated influenza, and to outline the benefits of influenza vaccination for patients and HCWs themselves. Vaccination of HCWs seems to be an important strategy for reducing the transmission of influenza from healthcare personnel to their patients and, therefore, for reducing patient morbidity and mortality, increasing patient safety, and reducing work absenteeism among HCWs. The benefits of influenza vaccination for their patients and for HCWs themselves are addressed in literature, but the evidence is mixed and often of low-quality.
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