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Lag Length Specification in Engle-Granger Cointegration Test: A Modified Koyck Mean Lag Approach Based on Partial Correlation

100%

Agunloye O. K., Shangodoyin D. K.

Statistics in Transition new series

2014

vol. 15

issue 4

559–572

The Engle-Granger cointegration test is highly sensitive to the choice of lag length and the poor performance of conventional lag selection criteria such as standard information criteria in selecting appropriate optimal lag length for the implementation of the Engle-Granger cointegration test is well-established in the statistical literature. Testing for cointegration within the framework of the residual-based Engle-Granger cointegration methodology is the same as testing for the stationarity of the residual series via the augmented Dickey-Fuller test which is well known to be sensitive to the choice of lag length. Given an array of candidate optimal lag lengths that may be suggested by different standard information criteria, the applied researchers are faced with the problem of deciding the best optimal lag among the candidate optimal lag lengths suggested by different standard information criteria, which are often either underestimated or overestimated. In an attempt to address this well-known major pitfall of standard information criteria, this paper introduces a new lag selection criterion called a modified Koyck mean lag approach based on partial correlation criterion for the selection of optimal lag length for the residual-based Engle-Granger cointegration test. Based on empirical findings, it was observed that in some instances over-specification of lag length can bias the Engle-Granger cointegration test towards the rejection of a true cointegration relationship and non-rejection of a spurious cointegration relationship. Using real-life data, we present an empirical illustration which demonstrates that our proposed criterion outperformed the standard information criteria in selecting appropriate optimal truncation lag for the implementation of the Engle-Granger cointegration test using both augmented Dickey-Fuller and generalized least squares Dickey-Fuller tests.

Kryteria wyboru liczby skupień w binarnym modelu klas ukrytych – analiza symulacyjna

84%

Kapłon R.

Przegląd Statystyczny

2010

vol. 57

issue 1

66-84

When using latent class analysis the number of clusters need to be known in advance. In order to decide on this, one can use information criteria. In such a case selection procedure is as follows: estimating a few models with different number of classes, computing information criteria and choosing a model for which a criterion takes the smallest value. Because there are many information criteria one need to determine which of them ought to be decisive. Unfortunately, by virtue of the differences among these criteria, their reliability alter depending on model class. Simulations confirm it as well. Taking into account the fact that simulations mainly concern finite mixtures of normal density functions, therefore in this paper we broaden research to latent class analysis.

Wykorzystanie analizy klas ukrytych (LCA) wymaga przyjęcia a priori liczby klas. W celu rozstrzygnięcia, ile ma ich być, można wykorzystać kryteria informacyjne. Procedura selekcji sprowadza się do: szacowania kilku modeli o różnej liczbie klas, obliczenia wartości kryterium informacyjnego oraz wyboru modelu, dla którego odnotowano najmniejszą wartość tego kryterium. Ponieważ istnieje wiele kryteriów informacyjnych, więc należy zadecydować, które powinno rozstrzygać. Niestety, nie można jednoznacznie wskazać na konkretne kryterium, gdyż w zależności od klasy modelu, zmienia się ich wiarygodność. Taki wniosek wynika z badań symulacyjnych. Biorąc pod uwagę fakt, że najczęściej badania takie dotyczyły mieszanek rozkładów normalnych, dlatego celem niniejszego opracowania jest rozszerzenie tych badań o analizę klas ukrytych.

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1 Przegląd Statystyczny

1 Statistics in Transition new series

1 Agunloye O. K.

1 Kapłon R.

1 Shangodoyin D. K.

1 2014

1 2010

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Lag Length Specification in Engle-Granger Cointegration Test: A Modified Koyck Mean Lag Approach Based on Partial Correlation

Kryteria wyboru liczby skupień w binarnym modelu klas ukrytych – analiza symulacyjna