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Międzynarodowy i geopolityczny status Ukrainy

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EN
The article analyzes the state of the Ukrainian foreign policy with special emphasis on the period following the orange revolution of 2004/2005. The present authorities of Ukraine face a difficult choice of the model of transformation of the whole country particularly in the context of its civilizational development. Russian economic initiatives are a very attractive alternative to the activity of the European Union. The Ukrainian society no longer believes in the assertions of European enthusiasts concerning a fast political and economic integration with the western countries. Paradoxically, the internal activities of the administration serve Ukraine’s international position better than a complicated and rather chaotic foreign policy. The present authorities in Kiev implement the policy of accomplished facts especially in the provincial areas and seem to be increasingly interested in the Russian offer. The authorities in Kiev have long been aware that a clear choice of one of the options of development would permanently bar its alternative. However, it should be kept in mind that the Ukrainian political establishment is unable to foresee the consequences of a “final decision” and does not have a vision of a long-term development of Ukraine’s external relations.
EN
In the introduction the main drivers of Brazilian foreign policy strategy will be analyzed. In fact, it means that regional and international position of Brazil will be presented having in mind the social, economic, political, scientific‑technological, and military potential. Furthermore, the Brazilian regional policy will be presented briefly as well as its relations with USA, Russian Federation and the European Union. In order to summarize, the intention is to conclude that Brazil is becoming not only a  regional leader of Latin America but also a very important member of the so‑called BRIC countries. A  short overview of Brazilian‑Balkan relations will be analyzed having in mind the fact that in spite of the absence of more significant economic and commercial cooperation the political and diplomatic presence of Brazil is continuous in this region. Finally, it should be underlined that Brazil was a  constant peace observer and protagonist during the Yugoslav crisis.
PL
Artykuł nie zawiera abstraktu w języku polskim
EN
The article is an attempt to answer the question about the state of Poland’s security after the first decade of the twenty-first century, what are its determinants, what kind of challenges Poland faces and which of them may turn into a threat and which into an opportunity, or what Polish potential is and which of its components determine its position on the international arena. It is achieved through a detailed analysis of actions undertaken by Poland in the international arena to strengthen its international position as well as the level of its security. Thus, the aim is to identify those determinants which may contribute to establishing a stronger position and which can create problems and become a formidable challenge in the context of various aspects of security, and even develop into a threat. Unfortunately, the picture which comes out of the above mentioned analysis is not optimistic and the impression is that Poland did not use the chance it was given after the accession to the NATO and the EU.
EN
The issue of identity is one of key categories within social sciences, and in view of international relations, it acquires both functional and theoretical value. In international relations theory, the position of conceptual trends investigating national and state-national identity has been consolidated since the quarter of the last century, which may result from, inter alia, a renaissance of social interest in finding an answer to such questions as: who am I, what do I identify with, and what community do I associate my interests with. Own characteristics, views, aspirations, needs and interests are developed within identifications processes, which is indirectly reflected in created institutions, social order, political and economic systems1. However, it should be understood that a historical change implies an identity change as it is modelled according to metamorphoses, which a state’s surroundings undergo. Identity is also worth being considered as a relation between a historically determined set of values and the process of individuals becoming subjectively conscious of them. As a result, a sense of collective identity is a sense of belonging to a community, even if it is based on ideas. As a rule, two aspects of collective identity are developed with the participation of political institutions: signs of solidarity among community members and clearly distinguished and consolidated borders with the external world.
PL
Przedmiotem artykułu są zmiany w globalnym układzie sił w okresie po zimnej wojnie. Na początku zaprezentowano tło demograficzne w długim horyzoncie czasowym (lata 1800 – 2050). Następnie, stosując model formalny oraz – pomocniczo – oceny eksperckie, przedstawiono zmiany w geopolitycznej strukturze świata. Zdaniem autora, ich głębokość usprawiedliwia zastosowany termin „geopolityczna transformacja”. Artykuł zawiera też jednowariantową prognozę kształtowania się globalnego układu sił w perspektywie 2050 roku. Wyniki badań pokazały, że do największych wygranych procesu „geopolitycznej transformacji” należą kraje Azji Wschodniej (z wyjątkiem Japonii, która należy do najbardziej przegranych) oraz niektóre kraje Afryki. Najbardziej przegrani to kraje Europy Zachodniej.
EN
The subject of the article are the changes in the global distribution of power after the Cold War. At the beginning, a demographic background was presented in the long-term horizon (1800 - 2050). Then, using the formal model and – as a supplementary factor – experts’ opinions, changes in the geopolitical structure of the world were presented. According to the author, their depth justifies the term "geopolitical transformation". The article also contains a one-variant forecast of the global balance of power in the perspective of 2050. The results of the research have shown that the largest winnings of the "geopolitical transformation" process are East Asian countries (with the exception of Japan, which is one of the most lost countries) and some African countries. The most losers are the countries of Western Europe.
PL
Celem opracowania jest określenie wpływu wielkości i struktury polskich inwestycji bezpośrednich na międzynarodową pozycję inwestycyjną kraju. Jak się okazuje wpływ bezpośrednich inwestycji zagranicznych na pozycję międzynarodową Polski pogarsza się. W artykule opisano uwarunkowania i skalę polskich inwestycji poza granicami kraju w latach 1994—2013. Na podstawie danych Ministerstwa Gospodarki, NBP i agencji inwestycji zagranicznych stwierdzono, że przedsiębiorcy polscy kierują kapitał głównie do sektora usług na rynku europejskim.
EN
The aim of the study is to determine the effect of the size and structure of the Polish direct investment on the international investment position of the country. As it turns out, the impact of the Polish direct investment abroad on the Polish international position worsens. The article describes the conditions and the scale of Polish investment abroad in the years 1994—2013. Based on data from the Ministry of Economy, National Bank of Poland and agencies of foreign investment, it was found that Polish entrepreneurs direct their capital mainly in the services sector on the European market.
RU
Целью разработки является определение влияния размера и структуры польских прямых капиталовложений на международное положение страны. Оказывается, что влияние прямых иностранных капиталовложений на международное положение Польши ухудшается. В статье характеризуются условия и масштаб польских капиталовложений за рубежом в 1994—2013 гг. На основе данных Министерства экономики, Национального банка Польши и агентств иностранных инвестиций было установлено, что польские предприниматели в основном направляют капитал в сектор услуг на европейском рынке.
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