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1

Zastosowanie autokorelacji przestrzennej w badaniach przestępczości

100%

Mordwa S.

Archiwum Kryminologii

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2013

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issue XXXV

61-77

EN

Spatial analysis of crime distribution has a long tradition. In general, studies concerning this issue usually focused on compiling thematic maps. Some more advanced researching methods and techniques were popularised only after personal computers became widespread and GIS software came into broader use. One of the research procedures now available thanks to this development was spatial autocorrelation, which is the subject of this paper. In practice, spatial autocorrelation is about the degree of correlation between an observed variable in a given location with the same variable in a different location: the method allows to illustrate concentration areas of an analysed phenomenon in space, or the lack of such areas. The article first presents the theoretical and practical basis for the notion of autocorrelation. Following other researchers, it was assumed that the fundamental reason for spatial relations to emerge, i.e. spatial autocorrelation, are the interactions taking place among neighbouring objects in a space. This warrants to conclude that the intensity of a phenomenon analysed in one spatial unit exerts some effect (stimulating or destimulating) on the intensity of the same phenomenon in neighbouring units of space. This is confirmed in Waldo Tobler's first law of geography: “everything is related to everything else, but near things are more related than distant things”. By studying spatial autocorrelation, one may discover three different situations (fig. 1): a) positive autocorrelation – when units of high value neighbour units of high value of the same factor (hot spots), and low value units are found near each other at the same time (cold spots); b) negative autocorrelation – when high value units neighbour low value units of the same factor and vice versa; c) no autocorrelation – when no principle is de-tected, as a unit of high value is neighboured by units of varied level of the factor in question – both high and low. In order to study the proneness of a phenomenon to create autocorrelation, one should first establish the nature of spatial relations taking place between spatial units – meaning the closeness (intensity) of neighbourhood. The relations take the form of spatial weight matrices (fig. 2) in which queen contiguity or rook contiguity is used. The weights can also be defined based on the threshold distance or k-nearest neighbours. Due to the intensity of social-spatial contacts, it was decided that the best effects in analysing criminal activity will be obtained with the use spatial weight matrices in queen contiguity. The assumption was that the distribution of pathological behaviours within a city, it is the direct contact between people living nearby that is important; the existence of formal or informal boundaries (blocks, estates, neighbourhoods, etc.) was considered irrelevant. A formal assessment of autocorrelation can be conducted with a set of appropriate indicators analysed globally or locally.

2

Jak badać lęk przed przestępczością?

100%

Ostaszewski P.

Archiwum Kryminologii

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2013

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issue XXXV

5-60

EN

Fear of crime has been researched since late 1960s and is commonly recognized one of the most frequent issue investigated in contemporary criminology. Definition of the fear of crime, its operability by means of particular investigation methods and techniques, and its macro-, meso-, and micro-social conditioning factors are widely discussed in the scientific literature on the subject. This article describes methodological aspects of research on this issue and particular questionnaire questions formulated in such research. The most frequent method used in research on fear of crime is to use particular questionnaire questions asked to respondents on quantitative surveys. There are attempts to use other research methods and techniques such as in-depth and focus interviews or content analysis. Among qualitative research, there are two predominant methods of fear measurement and, what follows, its definition and analysis. The first assumes a single question (e.g. how safe one feels on a lonely evening walk) with closed categories of responses. Choosing a category by the respondent is deemed to be an indicator of fear. The second method assumes that fear of crime is a continuous quantitative variable created by a scale which sums up responses to a series of questions on particular aspects of fear (e.g. fear of various types of crimes). The results obtained by the first method are presented as a percentage of respondents afraid of becoming a victim of crime which percentage is to reflect fear of crime level in a society. A relationship with other variables within to-dimensional analyses (e.g. using cross-tables) and multidimensional (e.g. with the use of logistic regression) are also investigated. Presenting one-dimensional results from the second method of measurement is much less understandable since it relies on an abstract arithmetic mean which is impossible to interpret. At the same time, however, they enable to define the level of fear (and not only the sole fact of its occurrence or lack of occurrence) and to use more precise techniques of two- and multi-dimensional analysis such as comparison of means and linear regression. It is worth to not that precise determination of the number, form and way of asking such questions is subject to constant debate in the literature which has not been decided so far.

3

Polskie Badanie Przestępczości (PBP) 2007-2009: analiza wybranych rezultatów

100%

Siemaszko A.

Archiwum Kryminologii

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2009

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issue XXXI

223-264

EN

Polish Crime Study (PBP) carried out between 2007 and 2009 was a joint project of the Police Headquarters and the Institute for Justice. The particular aim of the project, which was carried out in all 16 voivodships of Poland and in the police area of the of the Capital District, was to estimate the level of crime increase and its dark figures, evaluation of police work, and measure of fear of crime - both across the country and in each province. The research was carried out each year in the first half of January of on a random sample of 17 thousand respondents (3 thousands in each province and 3 thousand in the the Warsaw Police Headquarters area) by traditional face to face interview method. Analyzed results include 51 thousand respondents who were surveyed in 2007 - 2009. For the entire sample constructed in this way the measurement error is minimal and is in fact only 0.4% in general and 1.8% for the particular local area tests. It should be emphasised that PBP is the largest victimological study in Poland (surveys of the Institute of Justice in the previous rounds of the ICVS did not usually exceed 5 thousand respondents) and, at the same time, one of the major social surveys in our country.. The questionnaire of Polskie Badanie Przestępczości included questions related to the victimization with the following acts: robbery, assault, burglary, car theft, other theft (pickpocket, mobile phone theft, bicycle theft). The study also included a question concerning the reporting level of abovementioned acts. Much attention was paid to the perception of the police and fear of the crime in the measurement tool (such items were generally modeled on the Polish version of the ICVS questionnaire). The study included a total of 12 positions and 10 measurable questions. Positions related to offenses and their applications were relatively complex and de facto consisted of several questions. PBP results indicate that the intensification of a crime in Poland is still quite considerable. Nearly every fifth inhabitant of our country was a victim of one of the offenses taken into consideration during the analyzed period, almost every eighteenth was a victim of a burglary. Also other thefts (nearly 1,900 cases per 51 thousand respondents), and robberies (nearly 1,500 cases per 51 thousand resondents) happen quite often. The largest (tenfold) diversity in regional reviev concerns the risk of a car theft, white the smallest (2,5 fold) diversity concerns robberies and other theft. Relatively large, (fivefold) differences have also been reported in case of battery. It should be noted that differences in the frequency of the offences taken into consideration voivodship-wise is comparable or even greater than in the individual EU countries taking part in the final round of the ICVS, which is certainly quite a surprise.

4

Rozmiary i uwarunkowania lęku przed przestępczością

80%

Ostaszewski P.

Archiwum Kryminologii

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2012

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issue XXXIV

157-206

EN

Criminological analyses of fear of crime conducted to date have lead to formulating many various ways of defining this phenomenon and to concepts explaining its intensity and diversity. This article assumes that the most effective definition (by Sandra Walklate) is that fear of crime is partly rational and partly irrational state of anxiety or fear caused by belief that the individual is at risk of becoming a crime victim. Basic hypotheses regarding factors influencing level of fear concern such aspects as: victimization experiences and objective crime risk level; socio-demographic characteristics of individuals and psychological features which define their sensitivity to dangers and risks, features of environment where an individual lives, and in particular manifestations of social disorganization, size of local population, and presence of social ties, mutual trust, common goals and values among local residents; actions of persecution organs and the justice system and their social perception; macro-social factors (such as quality of social security) as well as media reports and politicians’ actions. Multi-dimensional models of fear of crime constructed by researchers integrate these hypotheses into complex system which offer much more explaining power and possibility of presentation of relations between particular variables in question. The conducted research presented in the article aimed to present the level of crime fear perceived in Poland and other European countries as well as to find social, demographic, and macro-social factors conditioning that fear. The research was based on secondary data analysis from several editions of International Victimisation Studies, Polish Crime Study, and last issue of European Social Survey. Analysis of the crime level in Poland revealed there has been a definite, almost twofold, decrease of percentage of persons declaring such fear during the past 20 years. In the beginning of 21st century, Poles perceived above-European average fear of crime. In 2010 it was lower than in most European countries. As a result of conducted two-dimensional analyses, it was established that crucial factors influencing perceived lack of security contributed to the following hypotheses: victimization, sensitivity to risks, disorganization and urbanization and those focusing on the action of prosecution and macro-social characteristics of inhabited locations. Used techniques of classification tree allowed for initial examination of joint influence of particular independent and dependent variables as well as for separation of many interesting groups of respondents regarding frequency of occurrence of fear of crime. Above-average fear of crime was characteristic of women from middle-sized and big cities who had been victims of crime against property and of men who had been victims of crime against property or as-sault and lived in areas where unemployment was below average.

5

Geografia przestępczości. Uwagi na temat przestrzennych analiz przestępczości przy wykorzystaniu technik cyfrowych

80%

Goldschneider M.

Archiwum Kryminologii

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2010

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issue XXXII

23-43

EN

The article discusses the issue of digital technologies use for practical applications of the principles of modern ecologic currents in criminology. The phenomenon of crime is not distributed evenly in time and space. Detailed analysis of this regularity is possible owing to crime map making. The tradition of such map making originates in the 19th century and roots from the cartographic school. Their representatives conducted analyses basing on the data coming from French police statistics. More advanced studies on spatial distribution of crime, whose authors created theoretical conceptions attempting at explaining this phenomenon, originate from the Chicago school. In our times, with the advancement of computerisation, technical capabilities of modern computers and availability of good and reliable software, crime maps are becoming an even more easily accessible and effective tool in the analysis of the phenomenon of crime. Geographic information system (GIS) is the technology currently employed for spatial analyses. It allows introducing, storing, processing and visualising geographical data. Geocoding technology enables translation to geographic coordinates and digital map making containing information on the criminal events in a given city. GIS is used in criminological analyses in two main areas: digital crime map making and geographic profiling. Crime mapping is a tool for spatial analyses of criminal incidents which consists in putting together the time and place of crime to investigate spatial patterns of criminal behaviours and hot spots. It also enables to analyse criminal incidents according to various spatial variables e.g. to compare crime scene locations with locations like bars or schools, with demographic data concerning investigated areas etc. The idea of crime mapping has its roots in theoretical assumptions of environmental criminology which seeks relations between crime and its environmental and geographic determinants. Studies on crime scene locations are related mainly to the idea of hot spots, that is places where more criminal incidents than the average are reported. Crime maps are a useful tool which enables the analysts equipped with adequate criminological knowledge to seek the reasons for concentration of criminal activity in the area. In practice, digital maps are used by the police to obtain geographical data about a given area and to manage police units. Advanced use of GIS is made in everyday work of police forces in the USA and UK. Maps can also allow the data on crime statistics on a given area to be accessed by local communities. Geographic profiling is another GIS application enabling use of criminological knowledge. It allows to establish the most likely estimated place of residence of serial offenders. A profile is made based on information concerning crime location and other places of significance to the incident (eg. place where the corpse was abandoned).

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Zastosowanie autokorelacji przestrzennej w badaniach przestępczości

Jak badać lęk przed przestępczością?

Polskie Badanie Przestępczości (PBP) 2007-2009: analiza wybranych rezultatów

Rozmiary i uwarunkowania lęku przed przestępczością

Geografia przestępczości. Uwagi na temat przestrzennych analiz przestępczości przy wykorzystaniu technik cyfrowych