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On the properties of some predictor in time series analysis

100%
Czogała M., Department od Statistics U. o. E.
Acta Universitatis Lodziensis. Folia Oeconomica
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2008
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vol. 216
EN
Cieślak (1993) and Kohler and College (1988) considered a predictor being an arithmetic mean of a set of k-latest observations in time series, where k was constant. In this paper a modified predictor is presented and its properties are discussed. For each t-th observation the hypothesis that there is no change in the level of the time series is tested. When the hypothesis isn’t rejected the predictor is an arithmetic mean of a set of t-latest observations otherwise the predictor is equal to the value o f the last observation in the time series. The mean square error is used for assessing the error of prediction.
PL
W swoich pracach Cieślak (1993) oraz Kohler i College (1988) rozważali predyktor będący średnią arytmetyczną k-ostatnich obserwacji szeregu czasowego, gdzie k jest stale. W pracy przedstawiona jest modyfikacja wspomnianego predyktora oraz omówione są jego własności. Zaproponowany predyktor jest średnią arytmetyczną k-ostatnich obserwacji szeregu czasowego, przy czym k nie jest wielkością stałą. Dla każdej t-kolejnej obserwacji szeregu czasowego weryfikowana jest hipoteza, twierdząca, że w poziomie szeregu czasowego nie nastąpiła zmiana. Gdy hipoteza zerowa nie jest odrzucona predyktor jest wyznaczany jako średnia arytmetyczna z wszystkich t-ostatnich obserwacji, w przypadku przeciwnym predyktor jest równy ostatniej obserwacji tego szeregu czasowego. Do oceny błędów predykcji wykorzystany jest błąd średniokwadratowy.
2
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Determining Scholastic Aptitude Test as Predictors of Academic Achievement on Students of Islamic School in Indonesia

100%
Muhid A., Yusuf A., Kusaeri K., Novitasari D. C. R., Asyhar A. H., Ridho A.
The New Educational Review
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2020
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vol. 61
211-221
EN
Selection of new students is based on student potential. Research on the potential of the cognitive abilities and records of Islamic school students’ academic achievement in Indonesia are still very rare. This paper presents empirical data about the predictive ability of a test of scholastic ability for the academic achievement of Islamic school students in Indonesia. This research used a quantitative approach with a survey method that used the Ministry of Religious Affair (MORA)’s Scholastic Aptitude Test (SAT) and Students’ scores on 5 subjects in the first semester. The subjects of this study were 9609 Islamic school students selected using a quota sampling technique that represented Islamic schools in Indonesia. The results of this study indicate that all of the SAT subsets, those are verbal, numerical, analytical and spatial, are significant predictors of academic achievement of Islamic school students in Indonesia. The empirical analytical sub-test is the strongest predictor of Islamic school students’ academic scores. While, the analytical sub-test has very significant correlation with the academic score on Islamic Studies subjects. Meanwhile the verbal sub-test has a very strong relationship with academic achievement in Arabic and English subjects, the numerical sub-test very strongly relates to academic achievement in science and mathematics subjects. Among the four SAT subtests, the spatial sub-test had the lowest correlation with all subjects
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Predictors of mental health in female teachers

88%
Seibt R., Spitzer S., Druschke D., Scheuch K., Hinz A.
International Journal of Occupational Medicine and Environmental Health
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2013
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vol. 26
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issue 6
856-869
EN
Objective: Teaching profession is characterised by an above-average rate of psychosomatic and mental health impairment due to work-related stress. The aim of the study was to identify predictors of mental health in female teachers. Material and Methods: A sample of 630 female teachers (average age 47±7 years) participated in a screening diagnostic inventory. Mental health was surveyed with the General Health Questionnaire GHQ-12. The following parameters were measured: specific work conditions (teacher-specific occupational history), scales of the Effort-Reward-Imbalance (ERI) Questionnaire as well as cardiovascular risk factors, physical complaints (BFB) and personal factors such as inability to recover (FABA), sense of coherence (SOC) and health behaviour. Results: First, mentally fit (MH⁺) and mentally impaired teachers (MH⁻) were differentiated based on the GHQ-12 sum score (MH⁺: < 5; MH⁻: ≥ 5); 18% of the teachers showed evidence of mental impairment. There were no differences concerning work-related and cardiovascular risk factors as well as health behaviour between MH⁺ and MH⁻. Binary logistic regressions identified 4 predictors that showed a significant effect on mental health. The effort-reward-ratio proved to be the most relevant predictor, while physical complaints as well as inability to recover and sense of coherence were identified as advanced predictors (explanation of variance: 23%). Conclusion: Contrary to the expectations, classic work-related factors can hardly contribute to the explanation of mental health. Additionally, cardiovascular risk factors and health behaviour have no relevant influence. However, effort-reward-ratio, physical complaints and personal factors are of considerable influence on mental health in teachers. These relevant predictors should become a part of preventive arrangements for the conservation of teachers' health in the future.
4
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Association between brain fog, cardiac injury, and quality of life at work after hospitalization due to COVID-19

75%
Chatys-Bogacka Ż., Mazurkiewicz I., Słowik J., Słowik A., Drabik L., Wnuk M.
Medycyna Pracy
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2024
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vol. 75
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issue 1
3-17
EN
Background To evaluate incidence and search for possible predictors of brain fog and quality of life at work (QoL-W) among low-to-moderate risk subjects previously hospitalized due to COVID-19. Material and Methods Participants aged ≥18 retrospectively reported 8 brain fog symptoms pre-COVID-19, at 0–4, 4–12 and >12 weeks post-infection via validated clinical questionnaire. The QoL-W was assessed with a 4-point Likert scale where 0, 1, 2, and 3 meant no, mild, moderate, and severe impairment in performing activities at work, respectively. Data on age, sex, comorbidities, and laboratory results (including first in-hospital high-sensitivity cardiac troponin I [hs-cTnI] measurement) were gathered. Results The study included 181 hospitalized subjects (age Me = 57 years), 37.02% women. Most had low disease severity (Modified Early Warning Score = 1, 77.90%) and low comorbidity (Charlson Comorbidity Index 0: 28.72%, 1–2: 34.09%), with no intensive care unit treatment needed. COVID-19 led to almost 3-fold increased brain fog symptoms, with incidence of 58.56%, 53.59%, and 49.17% within 4, 4–12, and >12 weeks, respectively (p < 0.001). First in-hospital hs-cTnI levels were 47.3% higher in participants who later presented with brain fog at median follow-up of 26.7 weeks since the diagnosis of the SARS-CoV-2 infection. Individuals who experienced at least one brain fog symptom at follow-up, had elevated hs-cTnI, less often presented with atrial fibrillation, and used anticoagulants during initial hospitalization due to COVID-19. The Hs-cTnI >11.90 ng/l predicted brain fog symptoms in multivariable model. COVID-19 was associated with 3.6‑fold, 3.0‑fold, and 2.4-fold QoL-W deterioration within 4, 4–12, and >12 weeks post-infection (p < 0.05). Subjects with QoL-W decline >12 weeks were younger, mostly women, had more brain fog symptoms, and higher platelet counts. Multivariable models with self-reported brain fog symptoms (responding coherently and recalling recent information), age, and sex exhibited good discriminatory power for QoL-W impairment (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve 0.846, 95% CI: 0.780–0.912). Conclusions This study highlighted that in non-high-risk subjects hospitalized during the first 2 pandemic’s waves: 1) brain fog was common, affecting nearly half of individuals, and impacting QoL-W >12 weeks after initial infection, 2) after 3 months of COVID-19 onset, the decline in QoL-W was primarily attributed to brain fog symptoms rather than demographic factors, health conditions, admission status, and laboratory findings, 3) components of brain fog, such as answering in an understandable way or recalling new information increased the likelihood of significantly lower QoL-W up to tenfold, 4) biochemical indicators, such as the first hs-cTnI level, might predict the risk of experiencing brain fog symptoms and indirectly decreased QoL-W >12 weeks after COVID-19 onset. Occupational medicine practitioners should pay particular attention to younger and female subjects after COVID-19 complaining of problems with answering questions in understandable way or recalling new information as they have an increased risk of QoL-W impairment.
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