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EN
The aim of this paper is to create and in terms of the Czech Republic also to apply a simultaneous model for determination of macroeconomic impacts of the trading of emission allowances. Another aim is to determine its adequateness of application both from econometric and economic point of view, or alternatively to define its limits and restrictions. At first, prerequisites and characteristics of the model are defined. The application of the model in terms of the Czech Republic is performed next followed by economic and econometric verification. The conclusion of the paper contains evaluation of the impacts of the changes in revenue from allowances on select basic macroeconomic indicators, as for instance inflation, unemployment, government purchases or net export. In case revenue from trading of emission allowances in the Czech Republic rise by 1 billion CZK, unemployment falls by 0.15 % and the government expenses will increase by approximately 1.032 billion CZK and net export will increase as well, but only by 194 million CZK. Regarding inflation, the result of simultaneous model or the paired regression is the fact that revenue from allowances and inflation are independent on each other.
EN
Research background: Creative accounting practices do not frequently violate the law and are not considered illegal; however, accounting managers may exploit legal ambiguities to portray the company's financial standing in accordance with management preferences. Therefore, the analysis is focused on the detection of earnings management in companies operating in the Visegrad Group, which represents one of the most commonly used techniques for revealing creative accounting. Purpose of the article: The aim of the presented study is to reveal the presence of creative accounting through the detection of earnings management in the countries of the Visegrad Group and, based on the detected results, to propose a regression model of earnings management in the Visegrad Group. Methods: To reveal the use of creative accounting in the Visegrad Group, ten selected models of earnings management were applied during the period 2016-2020 to a set of 8,134 companies. The Mann-Whitney test and multiple linear regression were used to verify the existence of earnings management. These findings served as the basis for the creation of the linear regression model of earnings management in the Visegrad Group. Findings & value-added: The presence of earnings management was best captured by the Hribar and Collins model in companies operating in the Visegrad Group in the period 2016-2020. The findings also confirmed that positive discretionary accruals acquired higher values over the entire period when compared to negative discretionary accruals, confirming that companies in the surveyed group manage their profits primarily by increasing them. Therefore, we created a regression model, that can serve as a unique basis and is capable of revealing the use of earnings management in the Visegrad Group, as until now nothing like this has been implemented in these countries. In conclusion, this study offers insights for academicians and researchers on creative accounting in the selected period. Lastly, the study contributes to the existing theory by conducting new research on the earnings management determinants of the countries studied.
EN
Regression analysis is perhaps the best known and most widely used method used for the analysis of dependence; that is, for examining the relationship between a set of independent variables (X’s) and a single dependent variable (Y). In general regression, the model is a linear combination of independent variables that corresponds as closely as possible to the dependent variable [Lattin, Carroll, Green 2003, p. 38]. The aim of the article is to present two suitable adaptations for a regression analysis of symbolic interval-valued data (centre method and centre and range method) and to compare their usefulness when dealing with noisy variables and/or outliers. The empirical part of the paper presents the results of simulation studies based on artificial and real data, without noisy variables and/or outliers and with noisy variable and outliers. The results are compared according to the values of two coefficients of determination 2 RL and 2 . RU The results show that usually the centre and range method obtains better results even when the data set contains noisy variables and outliers, but in some cases the centre method obtains better results than the centre and range method.
EN
The aim of the article is to present how to carry out the classical and logistic regression analyses in sample surveys, describing the socio-economic phenomena, to which complex a sample was drawn. The object of the study are households in Poland, surveyed in the household budgets survey, conducted annually by the Central Statistical Office. The essence of the methods analysis of complex samples is based on taking into account an appropriate design sampling scheme in the estimation which includes stratification, weigh-ing, multistage sampling and adjustments for non-sampling errors. Parameters’ estimates and their variances’ estimates which measure the precision of the parameters’ estimates are different when using appropriate procedures for complex samples from the results which would be obtained if the procedures for simple sample were used. The SAS procedures for regression from complex samples were applied. It was possible due to the significant advances in computational techniques including the development of modeling software as well as increase its availability to users.
EN
Credit risk is the most important risk among all other risks in the banking business, because almost over 80% of bank balance sheets relate to this segment of banking risk management. One of the biggest problems of commercial banks in Bosnia and Herzegovina are non-performing loans whose share in total loans has increased significantly since the onset of the global financial crisis. The main objective of the research is to determine which of the macroeconomic variables have the strongest impact on the increase of return on average equity and whether it is possible to reduce the credit risk of banks with adequate legislation as the main factor in the slowdown in credit expansion. The main goal will be to divide the impact of an independent variable, i.e. the share of liquid assets in total assets and whether its increase indirectly affects the return on equity and indirectly, the credit risk. The quantitative model used in this study will be the Merton model. Testing will be conducted through multiple regression analysis for the period 2008-2016 with the help of the software package STATA.
Littera Scripta
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2016
|
issue 2
156-168
EN
There are many discussions and arguments about accuracy of the results of statistic regression analysis and neural network regression analysis among experts. Of course all of them look for the best method usable in practice. The objective of the contribution is to use a case study to answer the question which of the methods provides better results. As a case study will be used time series of US Gross Domestic Product. It starts in 1966 and ends in 2014. The future development of the variable for the following 20 years will be calculated. Software Statistica 12 developed by Dell corporation will be used for both analyses. The first one will use multiple regression of the software. The second one will use data mining section with its neural networks. Generalized Regression Neural Networks, Multi-layer Perceptron Network, Radial Basis Function Neural Networks, Linear Neural Networks will by calculated. The results are two curves, the first based on statistic regression analysis. The second curve is provided by the best model of neural networks. Both the curves will describe development of the US GDP in 20 next years.
EN
The paper investigates the relationship between the market concentration and the price-cost margin in the Czech food processing industry during 2003-2014. Estimated econometric models with Fixed Effects supported hypothesis assuming the positive impact of the market concentration on the price-cost margin controlling for productivity. The increase in the productivity was associated with the increase of the price-cost margins. Based on the results, policy makers should promote market competition in the food processing industry, for example through the reduction of entry barriers. Another option worth consideration is to support R&D activities potentially leading to market transformation and increase in efficiency.
EN
The study deals with recent changes in the motivation for pursuing non-formal adult education (NFE) in the Czech Republic and the factors behind this. Although the number of people pursuing NFE has been increasing dynamically in recent years, we do not yet have enough knowledge about the reasons adults pursue NFE and the factors that influence it. In this regard, the study aims to identify (1) the main trends in work/non-work, intrinsic, and extrinsic motivations for NFE and (2) the micro- and meso-social determinants that shape these trends. The study is based on a secondary analysis of data from the Adult Education Survey 2011 (N = 2715) and 2016 (N = 4034). The conclusion shows a significant shift from a non-work-oriented to a work-oriented motivation for participating in NFE and fluctuations between intrinsic to extrinsic motivations. The key factors influencing the 'reorientation' of this motivation among working adults are educational attainment, high occupational status, and to some degree also gender and the size of the company a person works in.
10
88%
EN
This paper analysis the gravity model of interregional trade of Irkutsk region the base of statistical data on gross regional products and trade flows between Russian regions. We find that the market size significantly impacts the trade volumes. The elasticity of export on importer region size is approximately equal to one. Moreover, it appears that the distance significantly negatively impacts the trade volumes. The elasticity of export on distance to the importer region is approximately equal to -1,5. We also find that Irkutsk region trade with Eastern regions is significantly (about 11 times) greater. Furthermore, we arrive at the conclusions that the absence of railroad significantly negatively (about 4 times) impacts the trade flows.
EN
Factor models observe the sensitivity of an asset return as a function of one or more factors. This paper analyzes returns on fourteen stocks of the Croatian capital market in the period from January 2004 to October 2009 using inflation, industrial production, interest rates, market index and oil prices as factors. Both the direction and strength of the relation between the change in factors and returns are investigated. The analyses included fourteen stocks and their sensitivities to factors were estimated. The results show that the market index has the largest statistical significance for all stocks and a positive relation to returns. Interest rates, oil prices and industrial production also marked a positive relation to returns, while inflation had a negative influence. Furthermore, cross-sectional regression with the estimated sensitivities used as independent variables and returns in each month as dependent variables is performed. This analysis resulted in time series of risk premiums for each factor. The most important factor affecting stock prices proved to be the market index, which had a positive risk premium. A statistically significant factor in 2004 and 2008 was also inflation, marking a negative risk premium in 2004 and a positive one in 2008. The remaining three factors have not shown as significant.
EN
The study is based on the research analyses of K.V. Petrides’ (2011) trait emotional intelligence construct verified by his Trait Emotional Intelligence Questionnaire-TEIQue. Verification of the EI trait construct by stepwise regression analysis confirmed that it is determined only to a certain extent by the Big Five personality factors theory (14%) (by the TIPI questionnaire, Gosling, 2003) and by perception and experiencing of positive (15%) and negative (13%) mental states (by the SEHW questionnaire, Džuka & Dalbert, 2002). Thus, the emotional intelligence trait as a consistent construct partially captures individual variability of emotional aspects otherwise scattered across personality theories.
PL
Wspomaganie problemów decyzyjnych źle strukturalizowanych, a do takich należy zaliczyć zadania z zakresu wyznaczania strategii konkurencyjności, przy braku dostępu do wiedzy eksperckiej jest trudne i nieefektywne. Jednak nie wszystkie przedsiębiorstwa, czego przykład stanowią MŚP, mają możliwość korzystania z zasobów wiedzy eksperckiej. Istnieje zatem potrzeba zastąpienia doświadczenia i umiejętności ekspertów wiedzą pozyskiwaną poprzez analizę danych pochodzących z przedsiębiorstwa oraz jego otoczenia. Dane te są zazwyczaj niekompletne i niedokładne, co decyduje o precyzji podejmowanych decyzji. Znane z literatury przedmiotu metody wyznaczania strategii konkurencyjności nie wykorzystują dostępnych technik drążenia danych i uwzględniających ich niepewność technik wnioskowania rozmytego. Proponowana metoda integrująca te techniki stanowi atrakcyjną alternatywę dla stosowanych metod jakościowych lub jakościowo-ilościowych. Weryfikacja metody została przeprowadzona na grupie MŚP świadczących usługi medyczne.
EN
Supporting the decision-making in unstructured problems, such as tasks related to developing a competitiveness strategy, is difficult and inefficient without access to expert knowledge. However, not all companies, for example SMEs, have the ability to use their resources. There is a need to replace the experience and skills of experts by knowledge obtained through the analysis of data from the company and its environment. This data is usually incomplete and inaccurate, which affects the precision of decisions made. The methods of developing competitiveness strategies that are known from literature do not use available data mining techniques or fuzzy inference techniques taking into account the uncertainty of data. The proposed method, which integrates the above techniques, is an attractive alternative to the use of qualitative or qualitative-quantitative methods. The verification of the method was carried out on a group of SMEs providing medical services.
Oeconomia Copernicana
|
2016
|
vol. 7
|
issue 3
339-355
EN
One of the most serious problems of fiscal character is the issue of the tax gap. The tax gap is defined as the amount of tax liability faced by taxpayers that is not paid on time. The tax gap comes from three main areas of non-compliance with the tax law – firstly, from underreporting of income, secondly, from underpayment of taxes, and thirdly, from non-filing of returns. The tax evasions in the area of value added tax create one of the largest groups of tax gaps. This article describes the current situation in the field of tax gap in selected countries of the European Union. The aim of this paper is to determine the dependence of the VAT gap on three variables: the Corruption Perception Index CPI, GDP growth rate and the basic VAT rate. The method of regression analysis was used, which was performed on data in the years 2000–2011. Although it could be assumed that tax burden will affect the VAT gap the most, the highest dependence was shown in the case of Corruption Perception Index.
Organizacija
|
2010
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vol. 43
|
issue 4
154-162
EN
The aim of this paper was to test the hypothesized U-shaped relationship between economic development and dynamics of enterprises. The dynamics of enterprises is influenced by the achieved economic development. This paper first analyzed the association between the regional gross value added (GVA) growth rate and different measures of enterprises dynamics from Slovenian data from 2000 to 2005. Our graphical analyses indicated that 1) the rate of gross entry and GVA growth rate were linearly and negatively associated; 2) the association between the rate of gross exit and GVA growth rate is best represented by the downward U-shape function (Ç); and 3) a U-shaped association exists between the rate of net entry and GVA growth rate. The size of the impact was estimated using the regression analysis between the net entries as dependent variable and GVA growth as independent variable that showed the best fit. According to the results, 1) economic growth significantly impacts net entries; 2) the hypothesized U-shaped relationship between net entries and economic growth was confirmed as the Slovenian net entries decrease until the GVA growth rate reaches 10% yet increase when the growth in GVA is higher than 10%; and 3) a ‘natural rate’ of entrepreneurship is to some extent governed by ‘laws’ related to the economic growth rate. The results further indicate that the average net entry rate should be increased by 0.787 units (%) as a result of a region's specific environmental factors. This research confirms the theoretical assumptions that have previously been sparsely tested empirically and even rarely supported by results. Therefore, our results represent a contribution to the robustness of the theoretical as well as empirical clarification of the relationship between entrepreneurship and economic development.
EN
Objectives The inhaled endotoxin is considered as a causative factor in the process of acute bronchial obstruction, which can be measured by a decrease in forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV₁). The aim of this study was to assess endotoxin exposure among sewage treatment plant workers (STPW) and its effect on across-shift changes in respiratory airflow. Material and Methods A group of 78 STPW from a large sewage treatment plant was studied. Inhalable dust for endotoxin assessment was collected using personal aerosol samplers. Endotoxin was assayed with the kinetic, chromogenic Limulus amebocyte lysate test. Across-shift spirometric measurements were performed on Mondays, after 2-days absence from work, with the use of portable spirometer. The forced vital capacity (FVC), and FEV₁ parameters were analyzed. Multifactor regression modeling was performed to determine parameters significantly associated with endotoxin exposure. Results The concentration of inhalable dust and endotoxin ranged from 0.01–1.38 mg/m³ and 0.68–214 endotoxin units per cubic meter of air (EU/m³), respectively. Endotoxins were characterized with the skewed distribution (arithmetic mean (AM) = 38.8 EU/m³, geometric mean (GM) = 15.4 EU/m³, geometric standard deviation (GSD) = 4.21). Through the use of multifactor analysis, which excluded the main confounders (inhalable dust and smoking habit) it was found that, despite low levels of endotoxin, it had significant impact on the observed across-shift decline in FEV₁ (p = 0.044). For this parameter, the regression slope was additionally calculated (r = –0.017, p = 0.071). Conclusions Relatively low levels of endotoxin among sewage treatment plant workers may cause small, but significant across-shift declines in FEV₁. The observed relationship was independent of organic dust concentrations and smoking habit. The respiratory protection should be provided for STPW.
EN
In the introduction of the paper presents the classification of payment cards because of the way the settlement of transactions and the purpose of the article, which was to examine the influence of the number of card transactions on the value of these transactions. To achieve this purpose built three models of linear regression setting the following parameters: the regression coefficient, the intercept and the residual standard deviation, using data published by the National Bank of Poland on the last 15 years (1998-2012). Based on the regression coefficient and the intercept the equation linear functions built and estimated the value of each type of card transactions at the end of 2013, and also set the predicted standard error. The average value of transactions and the potential increase of the transactions value is the biggest for charge cards, then debit and credit cards. On the other hand, the increase in the number and value of debit card transactions is relatively fast, and in case of credit cards slower and predicted standard error does not exceed or is just close to the annual growth. However, in the case of charge cards decreases in both number and value of transactions made with these cards, with predicted standard error exceeded the annual decline.
PL
W artykule we wprowadzeniu przedstawiono podział kart płatniczych ze względu na sposób rozliczania transakcji oraz cel artykułu, którym było zbadanie wpływu ilości transakcji kartami danego typu na wartość tych transakcji. Do zrealizowania tego celu zbudowano trzy modele regresji liniowej, wyznaczając następujące parametry: współczynnik regresji, wyraz wolny oraz odchylenie standardowe składnika resztowego, korzystając z danych opublikowanych przez Narodowy Bank Polski z ostatnich 15 lat (1998–2012). Na podstawie wyznaczonego współczynnika regresji oraz wyrazu wolnego zbudowano równania funkcji liniowych oraz oszacowano wartość transakcji kartami poszczególnych typów na koniec roku 2013, a także określono błąd standardowy prognozy. Średnia wartość transakcji oraz potencjał wzrostu wartości transakcji jest największy dla kart obciążeniowych, następnie debetowych i kredytowych. Jednak z drugiej strony, wzrost ilości i wartości transakcji kartami debetowymi jest stosunkowo szybki, a w przypadku kart kredytowych wolniejszy, a błąd prognozy nie przekracza lub tylko jest zbliżony do corocznego wzrostu. Natomiast w przypadku kart obciążeniowych następuje spadek, zarówno ilości, jak i wartości przeprowadzanych nimi transakcji, z błędem prognozy przekraczającym coroczny spadek.
EN
This article offers a diagnostic description of the socio-economic development of the Wielkopolska region in the years 2000–2014. It consists of three parts. The first presents the dynamics of the Wielkopolska economy, chief directions of its development, and the rate of their changes as compared with the entire country and other voivodeships. Also barriers to the development of Wielkopolska are identified. In the second part, assuming that human capital is an important factor of regional development, an analysis is made of the socio-demographic aspects of this capital in the Wielkopolska region. In the third, the impact of human capital on the level of the region’s economic development is examined and a regression model is constructed on the basis of time series.
PL
Artykuł zawiera opis diagnostyczny procesu rozwoju społeczno-gospodarczegoregionu wielkopolskiego w latach 2000–2014, tj. w okresie nowych uwarunkowańpolitycznych, społecznych i gospodarczych. Składa się z trzech części problemowych.W pierwszej części przedstawiono dynamikę gospodarki regionu wielkopolskiego, główne kierunki rozwoju i tempo ich zmian na tle kraju i innych polskich województw. Podjęto również próbę rozpoznania barier rozwojowych województwa wielkopolskiego. W drugiej części, przyjmując, że kapitał ludzki jest ważnym czynnikiem rozwoju regionalnego, poddano analizie aspekty demograficzno-społeczne kształtowania się tego kapitału w regionie wielkopolskim. W trzeciej części zbadano oddziaływanie kapitału ludzkiego na poziom rozwoju gospodarczego regionu wielkopolskiego i sformułowano model regresyjny oparty na szeregach czasowych.
EN
Differentiation of socio-economic development level and polarization thereof are strongly articulated features of this process included in the classical concepts of regional development theories (especially of polarized development) as well as their contemporary continuations. They lead to emergence of growth and stagnation areas in economic space. Therefore it is essential to seek for answers to questions concerning the causes of existing disparities in spatial systems and processes reinforcing the polarization. The main aim of this paper is to identify and analyze the important factors which determine the distribution and development of the growth and stagnation areas. It is carried out for selected aspects of the development process treated individually and for all aspects together considered a holistic approach to the development processes. The procedure for the identification of growth factors is based on canonical correlation analysis (holistic approach) and regression modeling (partialaspects). Research procedure was performed both for all poviats (NUTS 4), as well as in their specific subsystems being growth and stagnation areas.
PL
Zróżnicowanie poziomu rozwoju i jego polaryzacja są silnie akcentowanymi cechami procesu rozwoju społeczno-gospodarczego zarówno w klasycznych koncepcjach rozwoju (zwłaszcza rozwoju spolaryzowanego), jak i w ich współczesnych kontynuacjach. Prowadzi to do występowania w przestrzeni ekonomicznej obszarów wzrostu i obszarów stagnacji gospodarczej. Dlatego niezwykle istotne jest poszukiwanie odpowiedzi na pytania dotyczące przyczyn zróżnicowań układów przestrzennych oraz procesów polaryzacji. Głównym celem pracy jest identyfikacja i analiza istotnych czynników determinujących rozmieszczenie oraz rozwój obszarów wzrostu i obszarów stagnacji gospodarczej w ujęciu całościowym i częściowym rozwoju, w układzie wybranych aspektów tego procesu. Procedurę identyfikacji czynników rozwoju oparto na analizie korelacji kanonicznych (ujęcie całościowe) oraz modelowaniu regresyjnym (ujęcie częściowe). Postępowanie badawcze przeprowadzono zarówno w układzie wszystkich powiatów, jak i ich specyficznych podukładów, tj. obszarów wzrostu i obszarów stagnacji gospodarczej.
EN
The research undertaken focused on a specific group: Poles aged 35 and over, thus representing so-called Generation X. The main objective of the study was to check which factors affect overall satisfaction with life, as well as how to what extent, which was measured as a weighted average of partial satisfaction indicators from 21 different spheres of life. The weights used to establish this general indicator were the declarations of respondents on how important every sphere is in their life, how much they want to be implemented in it. To achieve this goal, the results of a survey conducted in the first half of 2017 on a sample of 1,110 respondents from the Wielkopolska Voivodeship were used, and in determining what factors significantly determine a high or low level of satisfaction a multidimensional regression analysis was used. The results of the modeling process indicated 14 out of a potential 41 determinants of happiness, and the set of these factors includes the following characteristics of respondents: having children, the number of children, being financially independent, the value of property, place of residence, experiencing or not experiencing great failure in life, level of freedom/ liberty, level of safety, fitness level, self-assessment of health, number of sexual contacts, social prestige, level of extraversion and level of conscientiousness. In addition, it turned out that some of these factors positively affect the level of satisfaction, some negatively, and this influence is also manifested with varying intensity.
PL
Podjęte badanie skupiało się na Polakach w wieku 35 lat i więcej, a więc reprezentujących tzw. pokolenie X. Głównym celem badania było sprawdzenie, które czynniki oraz w jakim kierunku i w jakim stopniu wpływają na ogólne zadowolenie z życia (mierzone jako średnia ważona cząstkowych wskaźników zadowolenia z 21 różnych sfer życia a wagami stosowanymi do ustalenia tego ogólnego wskaźnika). Podstawą badania były deklaracje respondentów, jak ważna w ich życiu jest dana sfera, jak bardzo chcą się w niej realizować. Do zrealizowania tego celu wykorzystano wyniki badania ankietowego przeprowadzonego w pierwszym półroczu 2017 na próbie 1110 respondentów z województwa wielkopolskiego, a w ustaleniu, jakie czynniki istotnie determinują wysoki lub niski poziom zadowolenia, posłużono się wielowymiarową analizą regresji. Wyniki modelowania wskazały na 14 spośród potencjalnych 41 determinant szczęścia, a w zestawie tych czynników znalazły się następujące cechy respondentów: posiadanie dzieci, liczba dzieci, bycie niezależnym finansowo, wartość majątku, miejsce zamieszkania, doznanie bądź nie wielkiej życiowej porażki, poziom wolności/ swobody, poziom bezpieczeństwa, poziom sprawności, samoocena stanu zdrowia, liczba kontaktów seksualnych, poziom prestiżu, poziom ekstrawersji oraz poziom sumienności. Ponadto okazało się, że niektóre z nich na poziom zadowolenia wpływają dodatnio, niektóre ujemnie, wpływ ten zaś ujawnia się też z różną intensywnością.
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