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Charakterystyka i klasyfikacja ryzyka w działalności gospodarczej

100%
Thlon M.
Zeszyty Naukowe Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego w Krakowie
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2013
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issue 902
17-36
EN
Risk is an inherent part of economic activity. In practice we distinguish many categories of risk. These classifications are useful from a practical point of view, because they help to answer the question of where sources of risk may be identified. The main goal of this paper is to present basic definitions of risk, risk structures and measurement methods. The paper is structured with that goal in mind. The author first presents a review of the literature on defining risk, analyses definitions of risk and uncertainty and looks at the measures and the structure of risk. On the grounds of his analysis he ascertains that numerous types of risk exist in every enterprise, all of which to varying degrees affect the business’s proper functioning. The analysis of the sources and structures of risk allows him to point out threats accompanying the different kinds of risk and to put forward the most effective measures for minimizing the influence of risk on financial results.
2
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Pomiar ryzyka planu finansowego gospodarstwa domowego

100%
Pietrzyk R., Rokita P.
Annales Universitatis Mariae Curie-Skłodowska, sectio H – Oeconomia
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2018
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vol. 52
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issue 4
EN
When building a financial plan for a household, one usually needs to take many risk factors into account. These are the factors that have an influence on the shape of the future term structure of household incomes and expenditures. The factors may be of very differentiated nature, which means that their impact on the cash-flow term structure may be different both in terms of the underlying mechanism and strength. In this field of research, the existing literature does not provide, however, any proposals of integrated risk measurement. At the same time, the ability to measure risk of household financial plans in an integrated way would be very useful, as it would allow to select or compare plans with respect to the joint risk of a plan (to be more precise – the joint risk that the plan will fail to be successfully realized). The aim of this article is to propose a method or methods that would allow to measure financial plan risk in an integrated way. The integration should include different risk types, all financial goals that have been set by the household, all sources of financing and all sub-periods of the long-term life-cycle period of household financial planning. The approach, originally proposed by the authors of this article, may not only facilitate comparison of financial plans with respect to risk, but it may be also serve as a plan-acceptance decision-making instrument. Integrated risk measures may be also used within the very optimization procedure. They may be parts of the boundary conditions or even be embedded into the optimization function itself.
PL
Konstrukcja planu finansowego dla gospodarstwa domowego wymaga wzięcia pod uwagę wielu czynników ryzyka, które determinują kształtowanie przyszłej ścieżki dochodów i wydatków gospodarstwa domowego. Czynniki te mogą mieć bardzo różną naturę, a także bardzo zróżnicowany wpływ na strukturę przepływów finansowych. W literaturze brakuje jednak propozycji zintegrowanego pomiaru ryzyka, który umożliwiłby porównanie planów finansowych pod względem łącznego ryzyka ich realizacji. Celem artykułu jest zaproponowanie metod pomiaru ryzyka planu finansowego w sposób zintegrowany. W podejściu tym integracja powinna obejmować różne rodzaje ryzyka, wszystkie cele finansowe gospodarstwa domowego, wszystkie sposoby finansowania oraz wszystkie okresy w cyklu życia gospodarstwa domowego. Zaproponowane oryginalne podejście pozwala nie tylko na porównanie planów finansowych między sobą ze względu na poziom ryzyka, ale również tworzy narzędzie do podejmowania decyzji o akceptacji planu. Zintegrowane miary ryzyka mogą też być wykorzystane w samym procesie optymalizacji. Poza tym mogą stanowić ograniczenie lub wręcz element funkcji celu w procedurze optymalizacyjnej.
3
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An empirical comparison of different risk measures in portfolio optimization

100%
Hoe L. W., Hafizah J. S., Zaidi I.
Business and Economic Horizons
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2010
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vol. 1
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issue 1
39-45
EN
Risk is one of the important parameters in portfolio optimization problem. Since the introduction of the mean-variance model, variance has become the most common risk measure used by practitioners and researchers in portfolio optimization. However, the mean-variance model relies strictly on the assumptions that assets returns are multivariate normally distributed or investors have a quadratic utility function. Many studies have proposed different risk measures to overcome the drawbacks of variance. The purpose of this paper is to discuss and compare the portfolio compositions and performances of four different portfolio optimization models employing different risk measures, specifically the variance, absolute deviation, minimax and semi-variance. Results of this study show that the minimax model outperforms the other models. The minimax model is appropriate for investors who have a strong downside risk aversion.
4
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Detecting Risk Transfer in Financial Markets using Different Risk Measures

88%
Fałdziński M., Osińska M., Zdanowicz T.
Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics
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2012
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issue 1
5
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Forecasting risk of decision – making processes

88%
Zemke J.
Econometrics. Ekonometria. Advances in Applied Data Analytics
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2013
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issue 1(39)
30-39
EN
What is the risk of decision-making processes, what causes it? Most typically, definitions of risk are ex post – they are looking at risk as a difference between expectations of results of actions taken and the actual performance. This is a considerable inconvenience, especially in cases when processes are of a long-term nature. Thus, is it possible to measure risk in the course of the decision-making processes? How can this be done and in what conditions can risk measures be extrapolated? An analysis of the definitions of risk shows that the one which is the most useful for solving the problem undertaken in the present study, is given by K. and T. Jajuga, “…the term of risk will refer to a decision, or, to be more precise, to an action taken as a result. One may therefore speak of taking risky decisions”. The authors make it clear that a risky decision is uncertainty as to “…the possibility for people to control the factors that determine the reality”. This suggestion, if accepted, enables one to construct a risk model as a random vector whose components are control variables of the decisionmaking processes taking place. In consequence, this makes it possible to estimate statistic measures of risk. Risk measures indicating the level of risk at moment t of decision-making processes represent a foundation of the problem announced by the title of the present study. Although they are merely a set of risk estimations, i.e. an assessment of its state, they nevertheless provide an opportunity to forecast risk levels within the period in which the processes occur, thus providing valuable information for decisions-makers.
6
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From duration analysis to GARCH models – An approach to systematization of quantitative methods in risk measurement

88%
Krzysztof J.
Economics and Business Review
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2016
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vol. 2(16)
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issue 3
EN
The development of scientific research has led to the very dynamic growth of methods in the area of financial risk management. This refers particularly to risk measures in which quantitative methods are applied. The paper provides a discussion on a systematization of different risk measures proposed in scientific literature and used in practice. There are four criteria proposed in the paper. The first is the concept of risk applied by distinguishing negative and neutral concept. The second criterion is the character of the risk variable, either discrete or continuous . The third criterion makes the distinction between high frequency, low severity events, corresponding to standard (normal) type of risk, and low frequency, high severity events, corresponding to extreme risk. Finally the fourth criterion distinguishes between the risk variable expressed in monetary values and risk variable expressed in time units. Using these criteria the most common groups of risk measures are discussed. The final part of the paper gives a synthetic discussion on model risk which is a risk resulting from the erratic model used in a real world. In the paper three main sources of model risk are presented and the methods to evaluate model risk are given.
7
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The Polish contribution to financial econometrics. A review of methods and applications

75%
Osińska M.
Econometrics. Ekonometria. Advances in Applied Data Analytics
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2016
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issue 4 (54)
9-35
EN
Since 1982 the term “financial econometrics” has been present in the enormous literature that covers both methodologies and empirical analyses of the processes observed on the financial markets. The purpose of the presented paper is to indicate the milestones in financial econometrics and their usefulness and to show the contribution of the research from Poland into its development. ‘Pure’ financial econometrics methods are of special interest. The paper is directed at reviewing the recent methodologies and their applications. We focused on the contribution of Polish researchers into financial econometrics over the years, considering both the methodology and the applications. Some of the indicated publications are cited quite often, including international quotations, others are not very popular due to the language of the publication or the local reach of the journal, although many of them can be considered in line with the achievements that are presented in international empirical publications.
8
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Applications of VaR and CVaR Methods on Energy Market in Poland

63%
Ganczarek A., The Karol Adamiecki University of Economics K.
Acta Universitatis Lodziensis. Folia Oeconomica
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2006
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vol. 196
EN
This article presents downside risk measures such as: Value-at-Risk - VaR and Conditional Value-at-Risk - CVaR. We establish them with three of the known methods. The electric energy is an article of real tame, which we can not store up and this influences on changes of price. The downside risk measures are more effective than the measures of volatility for estimate risk on electric energy market. The aim this article is the choice of VaR and CVaR methods, that are the most effective for future risk on the Polish energy market. In this investigation we use the logarithmic rate of return of prices from the Polish Power Exchange, Balance Market (BM) from October to December 2002 and their simulation distributions.
PL
Podejmując decyzje związane z przyszłością, podejmujemy ryzyko. Ocena ryzyka jest oceną subiektywną i w głównej mierze zależy od preferencji inwestorów. Niemniej jednak, aby ocenić ewentualne przyszłe ryzyko, należy go zmierzyć. Jest wiele różnych miar służących do jego pomiaru. W artykule skupiliśmy się nad kwantylowymi miarami zagrożenia Value-at-Risk - VaR oraz Conditional Value-at-Risk - CVaR. Będziemy te miary wyznaczać trzema znanymi metodami. Energia elektryczna jest towarem czasu rzeczywistego, którego się nie magazynuje, co w znacznym stopniu wpływa na kształtowanie się jej cen. Miary najgorszych realizacji spośród możliwych są efektywniejsze w przypadku oszacowania ryzyka na rynku energii niż miary przeciętne. Celem referatu jest wybór takiej spośród metod wyznaczania VaR oraz CVaR, aby najprecyzyjniej oszacować ewentualne przyszłe ryzyko straty na polskim rynku energii. Wyniki badań oparte są na logarytmicznych stopach zwrotu cen zanotowanych na Towarowej Giełdzie Energii oraz Rynku Bilansującym (RB) w okresie od 1 października do końca 2002 r., oraz na symulowanych rozkładach tych stóp zwrotu.
9
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Wybrane problemy systemów bankowych w krajach wysoko rozwiniętych

45%
Klimiuk Z.
Roczniki Nauk Społecznych
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2005
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vol. 33
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issue 3
5-50
EN
The article presents some questions on bank systems in such high developed countries like Germany or the United States of America. The following problems are described:1. organization and main functions of a bank system2. management of a bank risk3. evolution of financial innovations as security techniques4. American and German bank systems' profiles The author has choosen the subjects in order to present the following message: some Polish legal regulations on financial sector functioning are still strongly connected with the old, central and bureaucratic system and even despite the new Act on Polish National Bank and another one on Bank Law it is difficult to develop our financial system in a proper way. It seems to be clear that Polish bank law must be changed. But the question is: whetherthe present law can be modified or, maybe, it is necessary to look for a completly new one. The author suggest that it could be based on one of European countries bank law. French, German or English models of bank system could be adjusted to Polish conditions. On the other hand, the Polish bank law of the interwar period could be also modified and brought closer to the present time. The author studies the experiences and directions of evolution that have been existing so far and he tries to find the answer on the question:: which model of a bank system would be the best for Poland. The bank and economic literature describe the following three basic types of bank systems existing in the world:1. English and American model2. German and Japanese one3. French one that draws from the both mentioned above Knowing the advantages and disadvantages of all of them, it seems that adoption of the German model would be the best solution for our country. It is becouse of tradition (in the iterwar period our bank system was modeled on a German one), direct neighbourhood and the fact that Germany will be our greatest economic partner in the near future. However, we can observe, that European bank systems areovercome by American models determining the standards of contemporary banking in the whole world. So, Polish bank sector must be sensitive to any institutional innovations of American banks. It is also clear that: “The chance for introducing the German model of bank system in Poland is hardly possible without the new, well-trained staff. If we do not choose the target financial system knowingly, it will be automatically pushed to the French model” (J. K. Solarz, Searching for a new model of Polish bank system, Warsaw, September 1994).
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