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Economic and political implications for Poland remaining outside the Eurozone

100%

Gomułka S.

Nauka

2019

issue 1

In the Accession Treaty of 16 April 2003, Poland agreed to adopt euro as its national currency, but the date of this adoption was not specified. The financial crisis in several countries of the Eurozone, in response to the world financial crisis in 2008, reduced drastically the public support in Poland for the replacement of the zloty by the euro. This article has two objectives. One is to assess the net costs, economic and political, for Poland remaining long outside the Eurozone. In this assessment the analysis includes also two official reports by National Bank of Poland, the country’s central bank, published in 2009 and 2014. The other objective is to note and assess the reforms which have been undertaken by member states of the Eurozone in response to this crisis, in order to maintain and enhance financial stability and economic effectiveness of the rules adopted at the start of the Eurozone on 1 January 1999. The author suggests to consider and adopt additional reforms. Discussed is also the USA experience with its own monetary union, and the potential influence on policy developments in the EU of increasing global competitive pressures from China and India.

Stabilność małych gospodarek wchodzących do unii monetarnej w świetle pewnego modelu behawioralnego

63%

Konopczyński M.

Przegląd Statystyczny

2013

vol. 60

issue 1

63-84

W artykule przedstawiamy prosty, behawioralny model imitujący dynamikę małej gospodarki wchodzącej do unii gospodarczej i walutowej (UGW). Model uwzględnia m.in. proces konwergencji cen nominalnych w unii i jego wpływ na bilans handlowy, kształtowanie się cen w zależności od poziomu zapasów oraz przepływy kapitału finansowego niwelujące różnice w stopach procentowych na obszarze unii. Przy pomocy znanych metod analizy układów równań różniczkowych, badamy warunki stabilności gospodarki. Wykazujemy, że mają one postać ograniczeń na parametry behawioralne modelu, odzwierciedlające siłę reakcji podmiotów gospodarczych na nierównowagę. W celu zilustrowania tych wniosków, przedstawiamy symulacje komputerowe. Na koniec, przedstawiamy dynamiczną analizę procesu przejścia pomiędzy dwoma stanami równowagi, wywołanego przez ekspansję fiskalną.

The article introduces a simple behavioral model for simulating the dynamics of a small economy, that is a member of the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU). The model takes account, among others, of the process of nominal convergence of prices in the EMU and its impact on the trade balance, the evolution of prices depending on the level of stocks and flows of financial capital. With the help of certain methods of analysis of systems of differential equations, we are examining the conditions for stability of the economy. We show that they have the form of certain restrictions on behavioral parameters, which reflect the strength of the reaction of economic agents to imbalances. To illustrate these proposals, we carry out computer simulations. Finally, we present a dynamic analysis of the process of transition between two states of equilibrium, induced by fiscal expansion.

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1 Nauka

1 Przegląd Statystyczny

1 Gomułka S.

1 Konopczyński M.

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Economic and political implications for Poland remaining outside the Eurozone

Stabilność małych gospodarek wchodzących do unii monetarnej w świetle pewnego modelu behawioralnego