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Modeling and projection life expectancy. The case of the EU countries

100%
Trzpiot G., Majewska J.
Econometrics. Ekonometria. Advances in Applied Data Analytics
|
2015
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issue 4 (50)
196-213
EN
In this article we investigate the latest developments on life expectancy modeling. We review some mortality projection stochastic models and their assumptions, and assess their impact on projections of future life expectancy for selected countries in the EU. More specifically, using the age- and sex-specific data of 20 countries, we compare the point projection accuracy and bias of six principal component methods for the projection of mortality rates and life expectancy. The six methods are variants and extensions of the Lee-Carter method. Based on one-step projection errors, the Renshaw and Haberman method provides the most accurate point projections of male mortality rates and the method is the least biased. The Quadratic CBD model with the cohort effects method performs the best for female mortality. While all methods rather underestimate variability in mortality rates and life expectancy, the Renshaw and Haberman method is the most accurate.
2
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Inventory Management Theory: a Critical Review

88%
Lukáš P., Xenie L.
Littera Scripta
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2016
|
issue 2
79-89
EN
It was carried out by studying available Czech and foreign scientific references, which serve as the basis for mapping the approaches to inventory management as well as research into more complex inventory theory models. The paper deals with the inventory theory itself and describes the formation of quantitative models as tools for optimizing inventory under certain conditions the models have been derived from. The paper also discusses an issue most frequently raised in terms of the inventory theory, i.e. optimization of costs related to the costs of holding stock, which follows the analysis of demand for commodities the selected stock is produced from. Thus, the issues of inventory theory and demand for final product are closely related. Results suggest the use of the “Mathematica” platform and modelling demand of the stochastic nature.
3

Heuristic Approach to Inventory Control with Advance Capacity Information

88%
Jakšič M., Rusjan B.
Organizacija
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2009
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vol. 42
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issue 4
129-136
EN
There is a growing trend of information sharing within modern supply chains. This trend is mainly stimulated by recent developments in information technology and the increasing awareness that accurate and timely information helps firms cope with volatile and uncertain business conditions. We model a periodic-review, single-item, capacitated stochastic inventory system, where a supply chain member has the ability to obtain advance capacity information (‘ACI’) about future supply capacity availability. ACI is used to reduce the uncertainty of future supply and thus enables the decision-maker to make better ordering decisions. We develop an easily applicable heuristic based on insights gained from an analysis of the optimal policy. In a numerical study we quantify the benefits of ACI and compare the performance of the proposed heuristic with the optimal performance. We illustrate the conditions in which the procedure is working well and comment on its practical applicability.
4
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Review of stochastic differential equations in statistical arbitrage pairs trading

88%
Endres S.
Managerial Economics
|
2019
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vol. 20
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issue 2
71-118
EN
The use of stochastic differential equations offers great advantages for statistical arbitrage pairs trading. In particular, it allows the selection of pairs with desirable properties, e.g., strong meanreversion, and it renders traditional rules of thumb for trading unnecessary. This study provides an exhaustive survey dedicated to this field by systematically classifying the large body of literature and revealing potential gaps in research. From a total of more than 80 relevant references, five main strands of stochastic spread models are identified, covering the ‘Ornstein–Uhlenbeck model’, ‘extended Ornstein–Uhlenbeck models’, ‘advanced mean-reverting diffusion models’, ‘diffusion models with a non-stationary component’, and ‘other models’. Along these five main categories of stochastic models, we shed light on the underlying mathematics, hereby revealing advantages and limitations for pairs trading. Based on this, the works of each category are further surveyed along the employed statistical arbitrage frameworks, i.e., analytic and dynamic programming approaches. Finally, the main findings are summarized and promising directions fur future research are indicated.
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