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Modelling of Agricultural Import Demand in Ukraine

100%
Shevchuk V.
Information Systems in Management
|
2014
|
vol. 3
|
issue 3
201-211
EN
Based on the monthly data from four aggregated agricultural sectors for the 2001-2014 period, this paper investigates the determinants of demand for agricultural imports in Ukraine by using the time-varying parameter technique (the Kalman filter). The outcome suggests that the real exchange rate depreciation contributes to a lower demand for meat, fish and dairy products; vegetable oil and foodstuffs, while not affecting demand for wheat and vegetables. Domestic industrial output correlates with a higher demand for all four groups of agricultural imports. Import substitution effect of domestic agricultural production is found for three out of four groups of agricultural imports, except meat, fish and dairy products. Following an increase in international prices, there is a decrease in demand for wheat and vegetables, as well as for foodstuffs, while there is an opposite effect in demand for other groups, i.e. meat, fish and dairy products and vegetable oil.
2

The Real and Nominal Effects of Large Devaluations in Ukraine

63%
Shevchuk V.
Argumenta Oeconomica Cracoviensia
|
2016
|
issue 14
97-118
EN
Using monthly data for the 2000–14 period, this paper discusses the macroeconomic effects of large devaluations in Ukraine. Employing a time-varying parameter framework, the author shows that a nominal devaluation in “normal” times is associated with an increase in exports and a decrease in imports, an acceleration in consumption price inflation, and a contraction in industrial output (since 2014). However, a currency collapse is likely to be inflationary and contractionary in respect of exports, imports, industrial output, and retail trade turnover. The author shows that export dynamics is stimulated by higher world commodity prices and industrial growth abroad. Since the 2008–09 financial crisis, industrial output has become more strongly linked to the performance of the largest foreign trade partners.
PL
Wykorzystując dane miesięczne z okresu 2000–2014, oszacowano efekty makroekonomiczne dużych dewaluacji waluty ukraińskiej. Stosując podejście ze zmiennymi współczynnikami, zademonstrowano, że nominalna dewaluacja kursu walutowego powoduje standardowy wzrost wartości eksportu oraz zmniejszenie wartości importu, przyspieszenie inflacji oraz zmniejszenie wartości produkcji przemysłowej (od 2014 r.). Gwałtowne załamanie kursu walutowego jest jednak inflacyjne i powoduje zmniejszenie wartości eksportu, importu, produkcji przemysłowej i handlu detalicznego. Eksport zwiększa się w przypadku wyższych światowych cen surowców, a także produkcji przemysłowej za granicą. Od czasu światowego kryzysu finansowego z lat 2008–2009 produkcja przemysłowa jest mocniej uzależniona od sektora przemysłowego największych krajów będących partnerami handlowymi.
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