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EN
Purpose: Stock market participants use technical analysis to seek trends in stock price charts despite its doubtful efficiency. We tested whether technical analysis signals represent typical and common cognitive biases associated with the continuation or reversal of the trend. Methodology: We compared investors’ opinions about the predictive power of technical analysis signals grouped into five conditions: real technical analysis signals associated with trend continuation (real momentum signals) or trend reversal (real contrarian signals), fake momentum or fake contrarian signals, and fluctuation signals. Findings: Investors assigned larger predictive power to real and fake signals associated with trend continuation than to signals associated with trend reversal. Fake signals, which represented cognitive biases, elicited similar predictions about trend continuation or reversal to real technical analysis signals. Originality: Market players assess momentum signals to have greater predictive power than contrarian signals and neutral signals to have the least predictive power. These results are independent of whether technical analysis signals were well-known to investors or made up by experimenters. The hardwired propensity of our brains to detect patterns combined with the non-natural environment of the stock market creates the illusion of expertise that is not easy to dispel.
EN
The ‘Reading the Mind in the Eyes’ Test (RMET) is a test of a Theory of Mind, i.e., the ability to infer the states of minds of other people. The purpose of this study was to evaluate a Polish adaptation of the RMET. The sample consisted of 447 participants, aged 18-85. The internal consistency of the RMET was 0.668; the upper confidence interval was 0.718. The score in the Polish version of the RMET was positively correlated with the English version. Test-retest stability was acceptable, with ICC = 0.886. The correlation of RMET and the cognitive empathy measure confirms the theoretical assumptions. There were significant gender differences in RMET scores: women had higher scores than men. Elderly groups of participants differ statistically from younger groups of participants in the RMET. The Polish version of the RMET showed satisfactory psychometric parameters, comparable to those of the original version.
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