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General bankruptcy prediction models for the Visegrád Group : the stability over time

100%

Tomczak S. K.

Operations Research and Decisions

2023

vol. 33

issue 4

Managers of enterprises must constantly face the continual changes on the market and fight for survival in a world of high competition. Therefore, it is important to systematically monitor the company’s financial condition. This will help to identify problems and give specific time to take corrective action. Bankruptcy prediction models are usually constructed for local goals. The purpose of the article is to build not only regional but also general discriminant and logit models for the SMEs operating in the construction industry in Visegrád Group countries. A total of 32 unique models were built and verified along with the Altman model for emerging markets. The paper also contributes to the literature by assessing the stability of the constructed models over time, which the models’ authors do not usually measure. The results showed that regional models are characterized by higher accuracy than general ones. However, general models can be adapted to the analyzed Visegrád Group with an accuracy of approximately 90%. The G1 LR model can be considered the best model, as it has relatively high accuracy and over-time stability.

Statistics on bankruptcy of companies in Poland

100%

Tomczak S. K.

Nauki o Zarządzaniu

2018

issue vol. 23 no. 3

39-50

The phenomenon of business failure in Poland came into being anew with the fall of the communist rule – it was the beginning of the 1990s, and the transition period from a centrally controlled market to a market economy was triggered. At that moment the market was a place where verification was being made regarding whether or not companies would be able to function, and consequently should they file for bankruptcy? Bankruptcy can be called a controlling device designed to eliminate the weakest links from the market, leaving the strongest players. This led to the creation of new statistical data, access to which has become easier over the years. This paper presents selected statistical data on bankruptcies of enterprises in Poland in the period 1990-2017. These data are presented by various credit information agencies by sector and region. However, these figures involve no relationship between the number of bankrupt enterprises and the number of operating ones. For this reason, the author calculated the statistical data, taking into account the relevant facts. The paper also introduces the business insolvency index and the newly established business index. The author suggested analyzing both of them in the analysis of bankruptcy data.

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1 Nauki o Zarządzaniu

1 Operations Research and Decisions

2 Tomczak S. K.

1 2023

1 2018

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General bankruptcy prediction models for the Visegrád Group : the stability over time

Statistics on bankruptcy of companies in Poland