Financial services market in Poland is developing dynamically. New financial products are offered and more new financial institutions emerge. An integral part of this process is monitoring the market in order to protect consumers and to ensure market transparency on the part of regulators. The aim of this paper is to characterize the financial services market in terms of its performance in the light of the study of consumer markets in Europe, the so-called consumer markets scoreboard prepared by the European Commission. In the first part of the article the principles and methodology of the study are summarized. The second part of the article contains the analysis of the results for several sectors of the financial services market included in the study, as compared to other consumer markets in Poland and the European Union. Evaluation of performance of the financial services market as a whole is below average, but it should be pointed out that significant differences exist between the segment of insurance services (high grade), and the banking services segment, which turned out to be the worst segment of all services in the European Union. Polish financial services market is estimated slightly better than the average in the EU.
W artykule przeprowadzono ocenę trafności prognoz testu koniunktury przemysłowej GUS w odniesieniu do produkcji, portfela zamówień i sytuacji finansowej. Porównane zostały formułowane przez przedsiębiorców prognozy dotyczące tych cech z ich późniejszymi ocenami bieżącymi. Wyniki wskazują, że przedsiębiorcy odpowiadając na pytanie o prognozy produkcji i portfela zamówień w najbliższych trzech miesiącach, koncentrują się głównie na najbliższych dwóch miesiącach. Prognozy są systematycznie przeszacowywane, ich przeciętna trafność jest umiarkowana, ale wykazuje wyraźną poprawę w ostatnich latach.
EN
The study is the evaluation of the predictive accuracy of the CSO industrial business cycle test. Detailed research concerns the accuracy of the forecasts formulated in relation to the production, stock of orders and financial situation. The forecasts of these features formulated by the entrepreneurs are compared to their subsequent evaluations of current states. The results indicate that entrepreneurs responding to the question about forecast of production and stock of orders in the next three months focus mainly on the next two months. The forecasts are generally overestimated. Their average accuracy is moderate but shows a marked improvement in recent years.
The aim of this paper is to point out the problems concerning portfolio optimization under uncertainty and/or including boolean-type constraints. Usefulness of stochastic optimization methods and/or evolutionary algorithms is emphasized in these cases. Theoretical considerations are supported by empirical results from the Polish stock market.
PL
Celem artykułu jest zwrócenie uwagi na problemy optymalizacji portfela inwestycyjnego, podejmowanej w warunkach niepewności i/lub formułowania ograniczeń z użyciem warunków logicznych. Pokazano użyteczność metod optymalizacji stochastycznej i/lub algorytmów ewolucyjnych we wskazanych sytuacjach. Rozważania teoretyczne zilustrowano przykładami empirycznymi dotyczącymi polskiego rynku papierów wartościowych.
This paper presents the results of research on the influence of the structure of demand for government bonds on economic growth. Empirical studies were carried out for the Polish financial market from 1997 to 2003. The main focus of our attention is the relation between interest rates of National Bank of Poland (NBP) on loans as well as deposit rates in commercial banks and demand for bonds claimed by banks, individuals and firms. Large spreads between deposit and loan rates in commercial banks together with sharp decrease of inflation resulted in economic slowdown in Poland. Such discrepancy caused a fall in amount of credits in banking industry because financial institutions shifted their investments to more profitable, higher-rate government securities - mainly bonds.
PL
W prezentowanym artykule podjęto próbę analizy wpływu struktury popytu na obligacje Skarbu Państwa na wzrost gospodarczy. Badania empiryczne wykonano na podstawie obserwacji rynku finansowego w Polsce w latach 1997-2003. Szczególnie zwrócono uwagę na zależność między stopami procentowymi NBP i stopami oprocentowania kredytów i depozytów w bankach komercyjnych a popytem na obligacje ze strony banków, osób fizycznych i podmiotów gospodarczych. Duża rozpiętość między stopami oprocentowania depozytów i kredytów w bankach komercyjnych, przy szybko malejącej inflacji, wpłynęła na spowolnienie wzrostu gospodarczego w Polsce. Konsekwencją zaistniałej sytuacji był spadek wielkości udzielanych kredytów przez banki, które uznały za atrakcyjne inwestowanie w relatywnie wysoko oprocentowane papiery skarbowe, zwłaszcza obligacje.
In this article the evaluation of the quality of indicators of industrial tendency survey in the Polish voivodeships in the short-term is presented. The attention is focused on the multi-faceted comparison of forecasts and assessments of the economic situation expressed by entrepreneurs. The tools used in the study are: graphic description and quantitative measures (Pearson correlation coefficient, a sign consistency index, a dynamic direction consistency index, sMAPE and Theil coefficients). Data source used were monthly data published by the CSO on the industrial tendency survey. Considering average values, both across voivodeships and some distinguished business characteristics, monthly assessments and forecasts of industrial tendency are consistent. Forecast quality of industrial tendency survey can be described as satisfactory. However, there are relatively large differences in the forecast quality across voivodeships as well as across business characteristics. The quality of the forecasts in terms of the direction consistency is clearly better than regarding the scale of the error.
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