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Oil price and the economic activity in GCC countries: evidence from quantile regression

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Zmami M., Ben-Salha O.
Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy
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2020
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vol. 15
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issue 4
651-673
EN
Research background: The effects of oil price fluctuations on the macroeconomic performance in oil-importing and oil-exporting countries have stimulated considerable research activity. However, the debate is far from being closed. Purpose of the article: This paper revisits the impact of crude oil price on economic activity in the Gulf Cooperation Council oil-exporting countries. The study covers a relatively long period spanning from 1960 to 2018. Methods: The empirical investigation accounts for structural breaks, nonlinearity, and non-normal ?distribution of data. The Kapetanios (2005) structural breaks unit root test?? and ?Saikkonen?Lütkepohl (2000a, b, c) cointegration test with structural shifts are implemented to examine the stationary properties of data and the presence of cointegration between variables, respectively. Moreover, the quantile regression is employed to assess whether the impact of oil price on real GDP differs across different states of the economy. Findings & Value added: Empirical results suggest the absence of long-run cointegrating relationships between oil price and GDP in all countries. The quantile regression reveals that oil price does not affect real GDP in the same way across countries and for different business cycle phases. More specifically, the symmetric quantile regression findings reveal that oil price exerts a positive impact on GDP in all countries and that the effect is higher during the recession than expansion states. The asymmetric quantile regression shows that GDP reacts to positive oil price changes in all countries. However, only the Emirati and Omani GDPs are affected by negative oil price changes.
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The impact of private capital flows on economic growth in the MENA region

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Ben-Salha O., Zmami M.
Economics and Business Review
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2020
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vol. 6(20)
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issue 3
45-67
EN
The aim of the article is to conduct an empirical analysis of the impact of aggregate and disaggregate private capital flows on economic growth in eleven MENA countries between 1980 and 2018. Unlike prior empirical studies, the fixed effect panel quantile approach developed by Canay (2011) is implemented. Findings suggest that there is a significant difference in the effects of private capital flows on economic growth across lower and higher quantiles. More specifically, the effects of total private capital flows, foreign direct investment flows, portfolio flows and debt flows are positive and statistically significant only for low and medium quantiles, indicating that the enhancing impact of private capital flows in terms of economic growth is only confirmed in countries with relatively low and medium growth rates. Moreover, debt flows affect economic growth in countries recording high growth rates, stressing the importance of financial development in routing those flows into the most productive projects in the economy.
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