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  1. 1 Internal Security

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  1. 1 Gondek A.

  2. 1 Łoś-Tomiak A.

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  1. 1 2013

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Diagnosis and Forecasting of Serious Accidents at Work in Poland

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Gondek A., Łoś-Tomiak A.
Internal Security
|
2013
|
vol. 5(2)
235-247
EN
In the article an analysis of the Polish definitions of accident at work is made done. Interpretation of the circumstances conditioning the regarding of an event as an accident is presented as well as descriptions of such kinds of events, pointing out cases of a serious nature. The main aim of the paper is to analyse the definition of accidents at work and to research data about accidents at work in Poland in 1999–2011 and, on this basis, to make forecasts for the future. An analysis of statistical data describing the total number of accidents at work in Poland, the phenomenon of serious accidents at work and the percentage of serious accidents within the total number of accidents in these years is included in the paper. Current trends in these phenomena are described using regression analysis, and short-term forecasts of the number of serious accidents at work and forecasts of the percentage of the number of serious accidents at work in the total number of accidents at work in Poland are made in the paper. Two methods were used for forecasting — the least square method and Holt’s model. Based on analysis of results achieved we can state that the phenomena researched are better described with the least squares method than with Holt’s model, but unfortunately the ex ante errors of forecasts are higher than the accepted threshold level. Consequently, these models only have an informative character.
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