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Ocena działalności przedsiębiorstw przemysłowych na podstawie wyników testów koniunktury prowadzonych przez GUS

100%
Sękowska H., Zagoździńska I.
Prace i Materiały Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH
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1999
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vol. 63
7-23
EN
In the article, different ways of use of the results of business tendency surveys in manufacturing industry conducted in the Central Statistical Office of Poland have been presented. The survey conducted since June 1992 has been described: its scope, frequency, content of questionnaires, sampling method, grouping of results. Long enough time-series and good quality of results prove to use this survey's results in short-term analysis of the present and future economic situation. To evaluate quality of business tendency survey's results, comparison between qualitative information and similar quantitative indices (for sold production, employment and prices) and between diagnosis and forecasts (general econoinic situation, total and foreign demand, sold production, financial situation) have been presented. Additionally comparison of results of different business tendency surveys (industry — construction — retail trade) has been analysed. Results for selected groups of industrial enterprises (small — large, different industrial activilies) have been presented as examples of possible detailed use of business tendency surveys' results. The general conclusion is that quality of results obtained in the above mentioned analysis is satisfying. Although a tendency to present more optimistic forecasts than diagnosis was observed, trends are comparable. Quick changes of the Polish economy cause that enterpreneurs present better forecasts for shorter period (one month instead of one quarter). Together with the stability of the Polish economy this horizon should be longer. Correlation between comparative qualitative and quantitalive surveys' results is good enough (and becoming better with the stabilisation of the economy). Quality of results obtained for different groups of enterprises is comparable, better for more stable industries, strongly linked with domestic rather than foreign markets.
2
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Kondycja polskiego przemysłu przetwórczego na podstawie jakościowych badań koniunktury

100%
Sękowska H., Zagoździńska I.
Prace i Materiały Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH
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2002
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vol. 72
87-105
EN
In this paper the assessment of the enterprises’ economic situation is presented, based on the chosen results of the qualitative business tendency surveys conducted in the Central Statistical Office for 10 years. In this analysis the following data are used: the tendencies of the manufacturing industry generał climate indicator, sold production indicator and financial situation of enterprises indicator as well as data on the influence of the limitations of the domestic and foreign dernand on the economic activity of the enterprises. The above-mentioned data are shown for the whole manufacturing industry as well as for six chosen Nace divisions: manufacture of food products, beverages and tobacco, manufacture of wearing apparel, dressing and dyeing of fur, manufacture of Chemicals and Chemical products, manufacture of machinery and eąuipment, manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers, publishing, printing and reproduction of recorded media, and three size classes of enterprises: smali, medium and large ones. This analysis confirms that the business tendency surveys provide good infonnation on the economic situation of the manufacturing industry enterprises. The results show difficult situation of the Polish enterprises, especialiy of the smallest ones. The unsatisfactory financial situation causes that enterprises are not able to pay their liabilities on time as well as it is difficult for them to survive the period of the worsened business situation. The very smali percentage of those enterprises does not encounter any limits to their economic activity. The basie limits to production are insufficient domestic and foreign demands on the produced goods as compared with the expected ones. In the recent years in enterprises divided according to the Nace divisions the worsened situation is evident even for those industries that earlier were characterised by much morę better economic situation (manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers, publishing, printing and reproduction of recorded media, manufacture of Chemicals and Chemical products). In the light of the above-mentioned results, it seems that the signals of the improvement of the situation of manufacturing industry enterprises noted in 2002 are too fable to regard them as the beginning of long lasting tendency.
3
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The Assessment of the Irvestment Activity of Enterprises Based on the Business Tendency Surveys

81%
Sękowska H., Święcka M., Walkowska K., Zagoździńska I.
Prace i Materiały Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH
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2004
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vol. 75
159-170
4
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The impact of phrasing of selected questions on the results of the business tendency surveys conducted by the Central Statistical Office of Poland

81%
Gaca O., Sękowska H., Święcka M., Walkowska K.
Prace i Materiały Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH
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2015
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vol. 97: Economic cycles and uncertainty
45-66
EN
Precise wording of qualitative questions poses substantial problem because frequently even small lack of accuracy or inappropriate word used in a question may bias surveys’ results. We analyze an impact of the wording on results of the qualitative business tendency surveys conducted by CSO of Poland. The relationship between the way survey questions are formulated and obtained replies is pointed out, e.g. the influence of adding explanatory notes and taking into account a kind of activity respondents perform.
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