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CHARAKTERYSTYKA MIGRANTOW POWRACAJACYCH DO POLSKI ORAZ ICH AKTYWNOSC ZAWODOWA NA RODZIMYM RYNKU PRACY

100%
Fihel A., Anacka M.
Studia Migracyjne - Przegląd Polonijny
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2013
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vol. 39
|
issue 4(150)
57 - 71
EN
The accession of Poland to the European Union was followed by increased international mobility of the population of our country. Today, several years after May 1, 2004, a wave of returns to Poland is observed. The aim of this analysis is twofold: fi rst, to identify a selective pattern of return migration with regard to the socio-demographic features and geographical directions of mobility, and second, to investigate the impact of migratory experience on the probability of economic activity, employment and unemployment after returning to the Polish labour market. The econometric analysis is based on the Labour Force Survey. The obtained results show that during the period 1999–2009 middle-aged persons, with vocational education, originating from rural areas, choosing traditional destinations (i.e. Germany) were most prone to return to Poland. Migrants had less chances to fi nd employment after their return to Poland than persons who have not undertaken migration, which could result both from a selection of persons experiencing labour market diffi culties and from a negative impact of migration on human and social capital. Contemporary return migration of Polish nationals is not determined by domestic labor market opportunities but by other factors – diffi culties with fi nding employment abroad, reaching one’s migration objectives, and other non-occupational problems, whereas settlement emigration is shaped by pull factors related to the destination countries.
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Predicting a Migration Transition in Poland and its Implications for Population Ageing

81%
Fihel A., Janicka A., Okólski M.
Central and Eastern European Migration Review
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2023
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vol. 12
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issue 1
265-292
EN
Poland, traditionally a country of emigration, started to record a positive migration balance in recent years. However, thus far, no forecast has indicated the possibility of Poland’s transition from a net sending to a net receiving regime. This study indicates the theoretical underpinnings of such a change and provides an international migration projection. To this end, we refer to the historical experiences of other European countries, more advanced in terms of the Demographic Transition (DT), Second Demographic Transition (SDT) and Migration Transition. We develop a deterministic migration projection of four types of flow (the in- and out-migration of nationals and foreign citizens) up until 2060, combined with the United Nations’ Bayesian probabilistic models of fertility and mortality projections. The results show that Poland will evolve from having a net sending to having a net receiving status around 2030–2034. The combined effect of migration flows on population ageing will not be significant but, in the long run, when considered separately, the four types of flow will have non-negligible, though opposite, effects: the outflows will contribute to population rejuvenation, while the inflows will accelerate population ageing.
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