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Econometric estimation of the relationship between the unemployment rate and economic growth in Limpopo Province, South Africa

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Thaba T. K., Belete A., Hlongwane J. J., Ledwaba L. J.
Journal of Agribusiness and Rural Development
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2020
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vol. 58
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issue 4
343-349
EN
The study aims to estimate empirically the relationship between economic growth and unemployment rate in Limpopo Province of South Africa. The analysis used quarterly data covering the period 2008-2018 which was obtained from Statistics South Africa. The study employed, difference model, dynamic model, and granger causality test for data analysis, in order to consider both, short term and long term possible relationship Based on the difference model estimation of the coefficient was done and the coefficient was found to be -0.22. From Granger causality test, causal relationship between these two variables doesn’t exist meaning that change in the growth rate of real GDP doesn’t cause change in the rate of unemployment and vice-versa. Inapplicable of the law indicates that a cyclical recovery will not be accompanied by reduction of unemployment. Furthermore, this might reflect the sizable structural and/or frictional component of unemployment in Limpopo Province. Lastly, the country's economic policies have not been suitable for fostering development that can reduce unemployment and this could be due to lack of appropriate composition of public sector and private sector.
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An Analysis of the Relationship Between Exports and Economic Growth in South Africa, 2000–2020

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Ramakgasha M. J., Gidi L., Thaba T. K.
Journal of Agribusiness and Rural Development
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2023
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vol. 69
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issue 3
333-340
EN
This study aimed to investigate how exports affect the overall growth of the economy in South Africa. Quarterly time series data from StatsSA and the South African Reserve Bank covering 2000 to 2020 were used. The study utilized numerous econometric approaches, such as the unit root test, Johansen’s cointegration procedure, the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), and the Granger causality model, to gain a clear perception of the relationship between exports and the rate of South Africa’s economic growth. The Johansen cointegration test was conducted, confirming the presence of a long-term equilibrium relationship between the data series. The results of the unit root test indicated that both variables became stationary at the first difference, as evidenced by both passing the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test. The correlation between exports and growth of the economy is positive in the short term and in the long term. The outcomes of the Granger causality tests indicated that GDP Granger-causes exports, signifying that economic growth in South Africa has an effect on exports. Additionally, the VECM outcomes demonstrated that there exists both a short-term and long-term relationship between economic growth and exports in South Africa.
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