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Inflation Differentials across Regions in Turkey

100%
Duran H. E.
South East European Journal of Economics and Business
|
2016
|
vol. 11
|
issue 1
7-17
EN
The aim of the present article is to analyze the convergence of regional inflation rates in Turkey from 2004 to 2015 by adopting sigma convergence and distribution dynamics approaches. The outcomes of our research can be summarized in two groups. First, inflation disparities tend to decline over time, especially during the post-crisis period after 2010. Hence, the aggregate price stabilization and disinflation process in Turkey is coupled with convergence in inflation rates across regions. Second, in addition to the findings in the literature, we find that regions change their relative inflation rate positions quite often. This indicates that regional inflation behavior is random and non-structural, as the relatively high and low inflationary places tend to change their quintiles frequently. The results imply several policy suggestions. First, achieving inflation convergence is a harder task than initially understood, as it seems to show random behavior. Second, trade integration can be an option to foster regional price convergence.
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State-level Taylor rule and monetary policy stress

63%
Duran H. E., Gajewski P.
Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy
|
2023
|
vol. 18
|
issue 1
89-120
EN
Research background: Taylor rule is a widely adopted approach to follow monetary policy and investigate various mechanisms related to or triggered by monetary policy. To date, no in-depth examination of scale, determinants and spillovers of state-level monetary policy stress, stemming from the Federal Reserve Board?s (Fed?s) policy has been performed. Purpose of the article: This paper aims to investigate the nature of monetary policy stress on US States delivered by the single monetary policy by using a quarterly dataset spanning the years between 1989 and 2017. Methods: We apply a wide array of time series and panel regressions, such as unit root tests, co-integration tests, co-integrating FMOLS and DOLS regressions, and Spatial Panel SAR and SEM models. Findings & value added: When average stress imposed on states is calculated, it is observed that the level of stress is moderate, but the distribution across states is asymmetric. The cross-state determinants behind the average stress show that states with a higher percentage of working-age and highly educated population, as well as those with higher population density and more  export-oriented are negatively stressed (i.e. they experience excessively low interest rates), whereas higher unemployment rate contributes to a positive stress (too high interest rates). To the best of our knowledge, the contribution of this paper lies in estimating monetary policy stress at the state level and unveiling some of the determinants of this stress. Moreover, the paper makes the first attempt to empirically test spatial spillovers of the stress, which are indeed found significant and negative.
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