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1

The Stabilization and Growth Pact in the light of the new EU member-states

100%
Orban G., Szapary G.
Kozgazdasagi Szemle (Economic Review)
|
2004
|
vol. 51
|
issue 9
810-831
EN
The paper sets out to examine the fiscal characteristics of new members in the light of the requirements of the SGP and criticisms levelled against the pact, and to see in what ways new members' initial conditions differ from those faced by current Euro-zone countries, in the run-up to adoption of the Euro. Overall, because of the lower debt levels and greater yield convergence already achieved, the new members will be able to rely less on gains from yield convergence than the current Euro-zone members were able to do. EU accession will also have a negative net impact on the budgets of new members in the early years of membership. The authors look at the cyclical sensitivities of the budgets and find that for new members, the smoothing capacity of the automatic stabilizers may be weaker than for current Euro-zone members. Also emphasized, apart from these general characteristics, are large differences in the starting fiscal positions of new members. Some policy implications of these findings are discussed.
2

Business cycle harmonization in new and old EU member-states

100%
Darvas Z., Szapary G.
Kozgazdasagi Szemle (Economic Review)
|
2004
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vol. 51
|
issue 5
415-448
EN
The study analyses the degree of similarity in the business cycles of the EMU members and eight new Central and Eastern European (CEE) EU members, for which EMU accession will be the next stage of integration. The coincidence of cycles is usually regarded as one of the most important optimal currency area properties. While the business cycles of Hungary, Poland and Slovenia greatly approximate to those of the EMU countries in GDP, industrial production and exports, the same cannot be said of consumption or services. The other CEE countries show little or no coincidence in their cycles. The EMU countries have managed to achieve increasing harmonization of their cycles, which could support the endogeneity of optimum currency areas.
3

Hungarian fiscal policy: 'quo vadis'?

100%
Orban G., Szapary G.
Kozgazdasagi Szemle (Economic Review)
|
2006
|
vol. 53
|
issue 4
293-309
EN
The study reviews the causes and macroeconomic effects of the persistently high budget deficit in Hungary in recent years and then outlines the possible directions of a solution. A concise theoretical account is followed by analysis of the process of loosening fiscal policy and its effect on external equilibrium and the country's risk rating. Attention is drawn to the dangers that a chronic budget deficit poses to long-term balanced growth. Finally, without aiming at completeness, the authors draw some conclusions for economic policy.
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