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EN
In the situation of financial crisis large numbers of central banks have started to ease monetary conditions. The National Bank of Poland, following central banks of biggest economies, started to offer unconventional methods to increase liquidity: foreign exchange swaps. The aim of the paper is twofold: to calculate the risk premium understood as a difference between an implied forward rate and a reference rate. The second is to show the sensitivity of the risk premium (a difference between) to market disturbances and than to monetary policy easing.
EN
Decision-making process made by committees are nowadays the most popular way of interest rate setting. The committee size, length of tenure, and the organization of the interest rate meeting could affect the voting behavior and influences the policy outcome. This paper reviews different views about the role of expectations in monetary policy - how they are set up and how they evolve over time. An important contribution of this paper is to show two different modeling approaches: collective decision-making process based on game theory and classical statistical one. The results are applied to the National Bank of Poland decision making process in 1998-2011.
EN
An easy access into Internet makes virtual trade cheaper and more attractive. The world of virtual games (MMOG, MMO) based on items, characters and currencies has been widening since the beginning of XXI century. Selling virtual goods for real money is an important problem for fiscal and monetary authorities. The purpose of this paper is to improve understanding of the consumer behaviour in virtual words and point the difference between virtual and real worlds. The paper stresses the possibility of misunderstandings and heuristics for those who could implement their experience from virtual worlds into real life and points the didactic role of central banks.
EN
The aim of the paper is twofold - to construct the implied 7-days forward rate and then to utilize its volatility as a indicator both the situation on asset's market and the flexibility of the yield curve construction. The research applies two parametric models: Nelson-Siegel with four and Svensson one with six parameters. The yield curve was created for WIBOR, FRA and swaps rate which let compare the situation on these markets during and after the financial crisis 2007-2009.
PL
Zmiany, jakie wprowadzają ramy Bazylei III skłaniają do zastanowienia się nad wpływem, jaki nowe regulacje, a w szczególności te dotyczące płynności, będą miały na sektor bankowy. Wprowadzenie nowych mierników płynnościowych, w przypadku polskiego rynku, zmusi banki do pozyskania znacznej kwoty aktywów wysokiej jakości, a konieczność osiągnięcia odpowiedniego poziomu wskaźników ograniczy znacząco podaż kredytów. Wskaźniki te, choć transparentne, nie będą oddawały specyfiki banków oraz rynku, na jakim funkcjonują. Celem artykułu jest przedstawienie dotychczasowych metod pomiaru ryzyka płynności zarówno wg wytycznych unijnych, jak i tych, które zostały zaimplementowane wyłącznie na polskim rynku. Odrębnie przedstawiona zostanie rola cen transferowych oraz ich zastosowanie do szacowania kosztów i korzyści płynności.
EN
The changes introduced by Basel III framework tend to reflect on the impact that new regulations, particularly those relating to liquidity will have on a banking sector. Implementation of new liquidity measures, in the case of Polish market will force banks to raise a substantial amount of high quality assets while the need to achieve an adequate indicators' level will significantly reduce the supply of credit. These indicators, although transparent are not able to capture the specificity of the banks and the market in which they operate. The aim of the article is to present the current methods of risk measurement: those introduced by EU guidelines, as well as those that have been implemented only on the Polish market. Separately the role of funds transfer pricing will be presented and their application to estimate the costs and benefits of liquidity.
EN
A yield curve which could be understood as a plot of zero-coupon rates for different terms plays an important role in monetary policy. For several years central banks have been extracting market expectations from yield curves to judge how its own monetary policy influences the market. In countries with well developed debt market central banks usually use cubic spline models or parsimonious models: Nelson-Siegel and Svensson one. The aim of the paper is to describe the increasing role of yield curve building in monetary policy and to show this process on Polish market.(
PL
Zastosowanie różnych kryteriów konstrukcji krzywej dochodowości zmusza do poszukiwań takiej metodologii, która pozwoliłaby na ocenę pożądanych cech krzywej dochodowości na potrzeby polskiej polityki pieniężnej. Oparcie skonstruowanej miary na własnościach powierzchni korelacji implikowanej 7-dniowej stopy forward wymagało przyjęcia subiektywnych kryteriów oceny. Taki sposób oceny daje pewien obraz potencjału krzywej dochodowości w zależności od przyjętego modelu parametrycznego oraz funkcji celu.
EN
The use of different criteria for the yield curve construction makes to search for such methodology which would allow to assess the desirable features of the yield curve. The adoption of subjective evaluation criteria let construct a measure which describes the required features of the correlation surface. This surface is composed of correlation coefficients between implied 7-day forward rates. Such a method of assessment let point out the best yield curves depending on the assumed parametric model and the objective function.
EN
Te European Central Bank has tried to face with a crisis since 2007. It has applied both traditional instruments and completely new ones. Five years of that politics let summarize its effects. The aim of the article is to describe these instruments of monetary policy and to show how they have influenced the economies of the countries involved in euro area. It is shown among others that one of results is bigger inflation pressure which lead to negative real rates.
EN
The investment portfolio management process consists of an integrated set of steps to create an appropriate mixture of assets. Since it is highly depending on characteristics of the investor, it is possible to stress three main steps: planning, execution and feedback. The most crucial part of portfolio management is the execution step during which a suitable portfolio is built. The procedure takes into account asset allocation, security analysis and clients’ requirements. The main aim of the article is to present and compare asset allocation procedures used today, such as mean-variance approach, Black–Litterman one and risk based strategies.
PL
Na współczesnym rynku finansowym zarządzający portfelem stają przed problemem uzyskania ponadprzeciętnej stopy zwrotu. Globalizacja, skutkująca rosnącą korelacją poszczególnych rynków długu, oferuje coraz mniejsze możliwości dywersyfikacji portfela i skłania do poszukiwania coraz to nowych możliwości inwestycyjnych. W efekcie trudniej obecnie zweryfikować metody zarządzania portfelem oraz jakość działania zarządzających. Celem niniejszego artykułu jest próba oceny umiejętności inwestowania w papiery dłużne Skarbu Państwa zarządzających Otwartymi Funduszami Emerytalnymi w latach 2001-2012. Badanie obejmuje dwa procesy decyzyjne – pierwszy dotyczy poziomu trwałości (duration) portfela przez zarządzających, drugi wyboru pomiędzy papierami o stałym bądź zmiennym dochodzie.
EN
In a global financial world managers face decreasing chance for generating the added value within the investment universe. Modern economies with their currencies and government debts closely linked to one another offer smaller diversification and force investors to search new opportunities. The article outline the essential components of an investment management process with a special focus on value of skills in asset allocation strategies. The imperfect foresight approach understood as an alternative measure of investor’s skills was implemented into debt security portfolio of the Polish Open Pension Funds. The used dataset includes observations from each of 14 funds that has been functioning between 2001 and 2012. The research covers two decision making processes: first, which concerns the structure of the portfolio in a view of time to maturity, second – the allocation between fixed or floating rate investment.
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